Reese Kaplan -- In-House Options for the 2025 Starting Rotation

Last time around we talked about the prospect of extending Sean Manaea before he leaves as a free agent invoking his player option.  Most felt he was an asset, some doubted whether or not what we’re seeing now is sustainable, and the one person who named a salary figure was at $21 million which was slightly higher than what I’d suggested.  Whether or not to consider a long term relationship with Manaea can be debated over adult beverages of your choice, but perhaps a look at the prospective starting pitchers in-house for 2025 could tip your hand.

Right now when fully recovered you start off with presumed staff ace Kodai Senga.  He seemed over the pitching arm and shoulder issues before the leg issue took him out after a 5.1 inning start and likely end to his 2024 season.  The type of injury experienced when he left that game does not suggest a long term nor chronic issue, so there’s every reason to believe he will be on the mound on Opening Day.

Next up is fellow injury victim Christian Scott.  When he was good he was very good.  When he was bad it called to mind other highly regarded pitchers who simply could not get it done.  Now if injury is the reason for the sudden downturn in ability, then recovery could help.  While he’s not looking at surgery to fix the UCL issue which is good news, the flip side is that he’s had this type of strain sideline him once before in his career.  So the question here is which Scott will appear, the healthy and dominant one or the nibbling at corners due to not being completely healthy.  Chances are, however, he’s starter number two.

Newcomer Paul Blackburn did better in his first start than perhaps he was perceived to have done.  He worked 6 innings, struck out 9 but walked 3.  Still, he left the game having only given up a single run and came into Wednesday night’s start with a Met ERA of 1.50.  Small sample for sure, but given his historical track record that may be an anomaly or it could be some words of wisdom from Jeremy Hefner.  For now he’s a Met starter and earning $3.45 million.  He’s arbitration eligible for 2025 and could be a free agent in 2026.  Given the low cost and ready availability to be a part of next season’s team, he’s likely the new Jose Quintana (from the right side).  

Next up would be current starter David Peterson.  He’s shown flashes and he’s shown batting practice pitching capabilities at times, too.  For now he’s sporting a very nice 5-1 record with an impressive 3.47 ERA which is close to his 3.44 of his rookie season back in 2020.  He’s not striking people out, is walking too many and is giving up a hit per inning pitched.  He’s out of options but is likely on the short list to make the rotation.

His competitor for that back end part of the rotation is Tylor Megill.  I don’t need to rehash what everyone already knows.  He just doesn’t get it done consistently.  He strikes out more people than lefty Peterson but walks more and also gives up a hit per inning pitched.  His career ERA is now up to 4.79 and this season he’s delivered an unimpressive 2-5 record with a 5.17 ERA.  Since he is out of options I would expect he’s no longer in the Mets plans since sending him to AAA is not in the cards.  

If indeed Megill leaves it could leave the door open to the suddenly stellar Jose Butto.  Granted, he’s working out of the pen when the club needs it most, but he’s always been a starter and there are certainly worse options out there than a guy who delivered quality pitching when summoned up from AAA.  His career ERA is just 3.42 and this season out of the pen primarily he’s challenging hitters with a 2.38 mark.  He’s striking out just over 1 per inning pitched and his WHIP is under 1.00.  You really do have to think about him as a potential starter.  

On the farm no one is knocking loudly on the door in AAA but recently promoted Brandon Sproat is certainly getting fans, team officials and pitching coaches salivating.  He’s gone from Brooklyn to Binghamton and now Syracuse.  Thus far the 23 year old righty is 6-2 with a 2.05 ERA, a WHIP under 1.00 and striking out over 11 per 9 innings pitched.  He’s walking just over 3 but what really catches your eye is that in a combined 87.2 innings pitched he’s only given up 51 hits.  Frankly he’s pitching better as a young professional than he did in college.  The question is whether the Mets would try to push him into the starting rotation in 2025 or will they give him a little more time in AAA and know he’s the first Uber ride to Citifield when his services are required?

So to recap, if you didn’t extend Manaea you’re looking at a potential starting five of Senga, Scott, Blackburn, Peterson and Butto.  It’s not bad but not intimidating to opposing teams.  It may be that the Mets want to get another proven ace-caliber pitcher.  If they choose not to tamper with success and leave Butto in the bullpen, then you have an opening for Sproat or a front-office acquisition.