Paul Articulates - Building a winner

David Stearns and Steve Cohen said that the Mets would be competitive for 2024.  We got exactly what they promised.  As of (very late) Saturday night, the team was 61-56 (.521) and teetering on the edge of a playoff spot.  This is what competitive looks like – good enough to win most, but more than a few rungs below dominant.

One reason that the team is “only” competitive is that they have a group of starting pitchers who epitomize this team – good but not dominant.  We have seen some great performances from the likes of Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea, and David Peterson.  Yet we have also seen some real duds from the same group.  

None would be SP1 on a World Series team.  So you have to expect those games where they hand the opponent an early lead and hope the bats will score enough runs to come back.  On Friday and Saturday in Seattle the bats were not there.

Why did the team leadership “settle” on this group and only aim for a “competitive” team this year?  They were driven there by the financial realities of prior decisions.  The payroll had grown so high that it was compromising the team’s ability to grow.  

Draft choices and international signings were being limited by the penalties imposed by the oversized payroll.  It was inevitable that the payroll would have to be restructured, and it is admirable that the leadership took quick and decisive action.

Unfortunately, some of the plan to rebuild depended upon the infusion of talent into the minors, which would grow to become a source of team controlled talent populating part of the MLB roster at lower salaries while other high profile free agents could be signed to elevate the team from competitive to dominant.  

This part of the plan does not appear to be running smoothly as some of the prospects have struggled through injury (e.g. Drew Gilbert, Jett Williams) and others have not progressed as expected (e.g. Vasil, Hamel, Tidwell).  

Christian Scott showed potential to be a solid starter before getting hurt.  LuisAngel Acuna got off to a very slow start in AAA but has recently been showing promise.  If you watched the Syracuse game that was televised on SNY you could see how his speed impacts the game.

As we are beyond the trade deadline, we accept that this is the team we will finish the season with (more or less).  What happens next to position this team for greater things in 2025 and beyond becomes an intriguing debate.  Let’s take a look at the current field positions to think about the choices that must be made.

Catcher: Francisco Alvarez appears to be the future in this position.  He has shown great promise and the ability to learn quickly.  This season seems to be a bit of regression.  At the plate, he has shown susceptibility to the slider and opposing pitchers are taking advantage of it.  I have great confidence that he will fix that.  

Behind the plate, he has shown some troubling lapses of concentration.  There have been balls that get past him that could have been blocked with a glove flip.  The worst thing was Saturday’s steal of 3rd base on a lazy toss back to a pitcher – this is a little league play and is wholly unacceptable at the MLB level.  Mental preparedness is essential.

First Base: Pete Alonso is a great power hitter that is struggling this season with his tendency to chase pitches, and that has caused many to suggest that the team let him follow the money in free agency.  I believe that would be a mistake.  Earlier in this article we talked about the difference between dominant and competitive.  

If you let a premier power hitter leave because he had a rough year at the plate and replace him with a less capable but less expensive player you are never going to field a dominant team.

Second Base: The combination of McNeil and Iglesias has been good for this team.  McNeil still has plenty of hits in him and is versatile enough to play many positions.  Iglesias is a slick fielder that has played well everywhere Carlos Mendoza puts him.  Keep both.

Short: We are blessed to have Francisco Lindor on this team.  With his leadership, passion, and offensive/defensive skill set he is the kind of player you build a team around.

Third Base: This is a tough one, because Mark Vientos has made a statement with his bat this year. He has also improved defensively.  There is no more Baty/Vientos controversy about a roster position, but I don’t think that Mark Vientos is the future 3rd baseman on a dominant Mets team of the future.  

He just doesn’t have the defensive skill to hold down that corner.  Think about the plays we saw Ryan McMahon make in the Colorado series.  Think about Austin Reilly, Alec Bohm, Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, Ke’Bryan Hayes.  That is the caliber of player that a dominant team needs at third.  We should keep Vientos’ bat, but continue to search for that player.  Maybe it is Acuna or Williams or Mauricio.

Outfield: This is where it gets difficult.  Harrison Bader has made a big impact on this team with stellar defense, timely hits, and heady base running.  He is only 30 years old, so there are a few more good years on those legs.  Brandon Nimmo is on contract for another six years.  Even though he is currently slumping, he is worth the extension.  

Starling Marte is an exceptional athlete who can play baseball at a very high level when he is healthy and motivated.  He is on contract for 2025, but since there is a low frequency of the “healthy and motivated” combo, don’t expect much.  Those three outfielders have combined for 31 home runs in the team’s 117 games – not nearly enough.  

They have a combined slugging percentage just a hair over .400 between them, which is not what you need from the outfield of a dominant team.  Tyrone Taylor is a great fourth outfielder with speed and defensive ability but he is slugging .399 as well.   

My guess is that if the Mets can’t re-sign Alonso and find a place for Vientos to hit, there will be a blockbuster trade that sees two of the aforementioned outfielders heading out of town in exchange for a power outfield bat.

DH: This is a place where Mark Vientos can contribute without compromising the defense.  JD Martinez has been very helpful in New York, and I would hope he can come back as a hitting coach.  But let’s play the youngster and get the power from that bat.

As you can see, the path from “competitive” to “dominant” is a difficult journey.  You have to eliminate some of the good to get great, and some of the good players will be sorely missed by New York fans.  

I think that the biggest impact to the club’s ability to win will come from the pitching staff, but unless they can find more power it will be very tough to win enough low scoring games to give the NY fans the World Series victory that they have desperately needed since 1986.