Earlier in the year it was a matter of bullpen woes that condemned the Mets to the losing side of the results column for games they played. Then some things started falling into place with Jose Butto, Dedniel Nunez, early season Reed Garrett, seldom healthy Sean Reid-Foley and Edwin Diaz put together enough solid outings that you didn’t necessarily break out into a cold sweat anytime the starting pitcher left the mound.
Now it’s those starting pitchers who are often the ones causing agita for fans and the Mets front office. We already praised the surprisingly effective pitching of David Peterson and Sean Manaea. Luis Severino has been more good than bad but aside from his recent complete game he is not exactly a sure thing when he takes starts a game. That, unfortunately is where the good news ends.
Still on the injury list is projected number one starter Kodai Senga and rookie call-up from earlier in the year, Christian Scott. No one is questioning the ability of Senga to perform at an elite level when he’s healthy enough to do so. Scott looked to be the very solid pitcher he appeared to demonstrate in Syracuse when he arrived, too, but when his health turned so too did the numbers her provided from the mound. It’s doubtful Senga will return this year but Scott is in injury rehab now and has progressed to long tossing before taking to the mound.
The problem is that the Mets need pitching now and the triumvirate of contenders for two open rotation slots are not exactly filling anyone with confidence. Jose Quintana is going to pitch Sunday in San Diego after posting a nearly 9.00 ERA for the month of August. There’s nowhere for him to go but up and his career track record suggests he is a far better pitcher than he’s shown lately. He has a career 3.80 ERA and in an injury shortened 2023 he posted an even better 3.57. Age and health could be issues here, but as a pending free agent his leash is probably pretty short.
Then you have newcomer Paul Blackburn. In his career he owns a losing record and a 4.85 ERA but since his arrival in New York from Oakland via the late July trade over his five games started he hasn’t even been at that level with a 5.15 ERA. Now his last game obviously inflated that number significantly as he wasn’t fooling anyone with his pitches. He shows good control and moderate strikeout ability but he is most definitely hittable. Overall he’s probably a better option than Quintana but the injury he sustained in his last start by absorbing a line drive on his pitching hand could make him miss a start to allow some time to heal.
The final in-house option (assuming Jose Butto stays in the pen where he’s shined) is yet another call-up for Tylor Megill. As a major leaguer his record is a little shorter but pretty much on par with what Blackburn has done. He owns a career ERA of 4.79 with a losing record. He strikes out more people than does Blackburn but his control has always been an issue as he’s hovered close to a 5 walks per 9 inning rate. He’s been a bit better in Syracuse while keeping his ERA below 4.00 but history and his health combine to suggest he’s an emergency starter but not necessarily an improvement.
The Mets may indeed want to see more of Megill because they have a tough decision at year’s end as he is out of options and cannot ride the Uber shuttle to and from Syracuse anymore. By contrast, Blackburn is already earning $3.45 million. He is signed just through 2024. He’s arbitration eligible in 2025 and can be a free agent in 2026.
Next season the Mets should have Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Christian Scott locked into three spots in the rotation. Extending Sean Manea would give them a fourth pitcher. The decision on what to do with Luis Severino needs to be made as he, like, Quintana, is a free agent to be. None of Mike Vasil, Blade Tidwell nor Dom Hamel are performing well enough to have any confidence in 2025 season starting promotions.
David Stearns is going to have to work hard to earn his sizable paycheck.
7 comments:
Your headline was not fitting to yesterday where Starter Jose was masterful, but Butto served up a game-tying meatball, and mere mortal Edwin allowed a walk off. Team is coming up short.
That's the danger in writing in a different time zone ahead of the games being played. Speaking of coming up short, with Baty done for the year does that mean we see the smaller Acuna in September? Pinch running could be helpful and if we drop out of the race for October then seeing him perform at an infield position would be useful as well.
My next post outlines my thoughts for 2025.
As Reese pointed out, Megill is out of options, so a decision must be made on him for next year. It's important to see how he pitches next month, so we can make that decision. He can be traded over the Winter, DFA'd, or simply carried until ST.
Let's get a good luck at him so that the best decision can be made.
The issues with Megill are two-fold. First is health. He has not been able to stay ready to pitch. The second is his performance when he is allocated starting duty. He's been wildly inconsistent. Still, at close to minimum wage the club should be looking at him in anticipation of his lack of options and/or free agency upon release.
Megill has pitched well his last 2 AAA starts, as Sproat, Hamel, Vasil, Tidwell, and Lucchesi are getting browbeaten there. Megill 12.1 IP, 17 Ks, 4 BB, 8 H. I think a desperate Megill comes back firing bullets to save his career. Blackburn is a softy pitcher, while Megill can fan many hitters with heat. If the Mets have hope from here on out, they need Megill to step up. He has clearly underperformed. Can he snap out of that? I still vote YAY, not NAY.
For next year, I suppose Blackburn can be added to the mix. Megill can become a reliever and certainly signing relievers can free Butto to start. The most interesting thing is whether the Mets will sign a top name or continue running mid-rotation guys in a year that they definitely have to let the dust settle from the payroll issues they have created for themselves.
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