MACK - MY Sunday Observations Report -

 

Good morning.

 

Baseball America conducted a survey about scouts, their fears, the direction as to where their future is going, etc. The sad results were:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/baseball-americas-2025-scout-survey-evaluators-fear-games-direction-amid-doom-and-gloom-offseason/?s=03  –

This is a very interesting story on the current state of the baseball scouting world. It’s worth hitting the link above and reading the whole story, but here are the highlights:

Scouts were asked to rank on a 1-5 scale how they would assess the current state of scouting. A majority said it was “not great” (2 on the 1-5 scale). Not a single scout said it was “excellent” (5 on the 1-5 scale).

A significant number of scouts elaborated on a general feeling of not being valued:

“Under attack and under appreciated.”

“The second half of this year it has become apparent that many organizations believe scouting is where they can trim budgets and still have success. I don’t recall ever seeing this many scouts let go and many of these jobs will not be filled.

“Not enough pay or job security.”

“Undervalued and misunderstood by ownership and decision makers. Too many cooks in the kitchen.”

“Bad vibes all around. Worry from young to old about the future of the profession and the overall health of the game.”

A common response was that scouting input has become less valuable for teams while analysts and data take on bigger decision-making roles:

“Pure scouting has been pushed aside and disregarded. Scouting directors no longer spend time with their scouts. They have little to no interaction with their scouts. The instincts of scouting are disregarded and have been replaced with analytical analysis. Scouts have lost their voice of what truly matters. (Draft) round cuts, team cuts, job cuts have only compounded the problem. Older, veteran scouts (are) pushed aside for analytics. The state of the scouting industry is at its lowest point ever.”

“Scouts’ voices are being marginalized in favor of analysts and the results are no better.”

“With the increasing reliance on models and the ever-increasing amount of Trackman, video and other data forms, the perceived need for scouts is declining at a rapid rate. There is and always will be a portion of the league that will rely on scouts, but that portion is receding.”

“It’s concerning that, at times, data and models are overruling the opinions of good veteran scouts who have feel and instincts. Everything in baseball (and life) can’t be quantified.”

“Scouts find the best players, then higher ups select who they like from data and (from) seeing the player perform once, regardless of the way the scout feels about the player after seeing him perform many times.”

“Depressing. It is a shrinking pie and few of us have any juice, any significant influence. Pro scouting only seems to matter for many organizations if done in the office with video & data.”

Other scouts noted that data and analytics were useful if blended with traditional scouting properly:

“Scouting has shifted from an opinion of the eyes to more of a nuanced and well-rounded opinion. Scouts are not privy to a wealth of info, and it’s on the scouts to now adapt and thrive. Data and video is readily available, but the smartest teams are utilizing these data points to enhance scouting rather than disregard it.”

“Data and analytics are not a bad thing. Incorporating biomechanics into evaluations isn’t a bad thing. Utilizing video isn’t bad. Abandoning traditional scouting and casting people off who have been valuable to organizations is. Good, capable people are losing their jobs because of some notion that it’s better for the bottom line and that the computer knows better. As with most things in life, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle. There needs to be a blend of traditional scouting with data/analytics. Letting the pendulum swing too far in one direction is an overcorrection. And the people most affected by it are the ones working the hardest for the least reward.”

“As teams are relying heavily on modeling and data collection, we are seeing positions disappear such as regional checkers. The emphasis on the area scout is now geared more towards collecting information rather than identifying and evaluating. It’s become a game about who can decipher the data better. However, the teams that continue to use a good blend—the Dodgers, Tigers, Yankees to name a few—are showing a different way to blend (data) and scouting. I think the amateur space will always need identifiers, separators and decision makers, whereas pro scouting will rely on data alone. The good teams will use their best scouts to identify the younger guys and use projection.”

 

-9-25 –

New York Mets      @Mets

We have agreed to terms on one-year contracts with all six arbitration eligible players - RHP Paul Blackburn, RHP Tylor Megill, LHP David Peterson, outfielders Jose Siri and Tyrone Taylor and catcher Luis Torrens.

 

1-8-25 –

The Mets made some minor league fills…

RHP Carlos Guzman

Resigned by Mets

26/yrs old                6-1                  210                 2016-IFA

2024 AA/AAA – 2-2, 3.88-ERA, 1.19-WHIP, 48.2-IP, 51-K

7-seasons -  30-26, 3.90-ERA, 1.30-WHIP, 452.1-IP, 442-K

 

OF Travis Swaggerty

27/yrs old                5-10               200                 LHH

Big time draft prospect – drafted 1^st round (1.10) in 2018

Career - -0.2-WAR, 9-AB, .111

Released by Pirates at the end of 2023

Played 2024 for Kansas City of the American Association

            321-PA, 7-HR, 41-RBI, .269

 

2B/SS/3B Yonny Hernandez

26/yrs old                5-7                  140                 2014-IFA

3 MLB seasons – 0.8-WAR, 189-AB , .191

9 minor seasons – 2373-AB, 11-HR, 266-RBI, .258

2024 LI Ducks – 120-AB, .325

 

RHRP Brian Metoyer

Resigned by Mets

28/yrs old                6-4                  180

40^th round pick – 2018 - LSU

2022 – Binghamton: 1-0, 9.82-ERA, 1.90-WHIP, 7.1-IP, 11-K

Underwent TJS in 2024

 

1-7-25 –

2025 ZiPS Projections: New York Mets

Dan Szymborski

Pitching –

ZiPS like the Mets’ offense quite a lot, but its cyber-feelings about the rotation are more mild satisfaction than enthrallment. Of the breakout soft-tossers from 2024, ZiPS much prefers former Met Seth Lugo to current Met Sean Manaea. And yes, I’m old enough to still feel in my heart that it’s weird that guys throwing 92-93 mph are the soft-tossers. ZiPS does have confidence in Kodai Senga and the Clay Holmes Starting Experiment, and it sees David Peterson as a solid league-average starter. Where the computer doesn’t have much confidence is in Frankie Montas, but if he’s their fifth-best starter, they’re not doing too badly.

ZiPS believes the Mets have pretty solid starting pitching depth behind the front five, too, but oddly enough, not in the first two pitchers likely heading that queue: Paul Blackburn and Griffin Canning. The projections would much rather see Brandon Sproat get an aggressive call-up if an early need presents itself, and lesser prospect Jonah Tong also has a solid projection. Prospects like Blade Tidwell, Dom Hamel, and Nolan McLean also come out on par with or even better than the veteran backups.

As for the bullpen, ZiPS kind of sees a really polarizing unit, not all that different from what Steamer projects. Edwin Díaz, José Buttó, Reed Garrett, and Dedniel Núñez all project solidly, but then there’s a big step down to the next tier. Basically all of the WAR accrued in the ZiPS projections are from these top four relievers; of the remaining guys, ZiPS is especially skeptical about Danny Young, Génesis Cabrera, Blackburn or Canning in relief, and Chris Devenski. Getting a couple bullpen arms would benefit the Mets greatly, even though signing middle relievers wouldn’t be as sexy as landing Roki Sasaki. (Then again, maybe for the Mets it isn’t an either/or choice.)

The Mets look a lot like an 87-91 win team or so, with the possibility of adding a handful more wins with other moves this winter. I suspect the Braves and Phillies will have slightly better projections by the start of the season – unless New York pulls off another huge deal – but the Mets are right in the thick of it, and a division title is certainly a possibility.

 

1-6-25 - Mike Mayer        @mikemayer22

Mets minor league pitcher Luis Moreno has been named Rookie of the Year in the Dominican Winter League.

The 25-year-old had a 1.83 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 37 strikeouts in 39 1/3 innings over 11 appearances (10 starts) for the Estrellas Orientales

Moreno turns 26 in May. He’s only 5-8/200 and went 3-9, 4.77 or AA/AAA in 2024, in 28-games, 21-starts (109.1-IP, 144-K).

He particularly pitched below par in 3-G, 2-ST for Syracuse (13.50-ERA).

I don’t list him as a BLUE prospect and consider him more of an AAAA starter.

 

1-6-25 -      Big Red Ruckus         @BigRedRuckus

A bold prediction, prospect to watch and more for 2025 Mets

https://t.co/dzaya8xzR1

One player poised to have a breakout season: Francisco Alvarez

Now that Mark Vientos has broken out, the Mets hope for the same from his younger teammate, Alvarez. Entering his age-23 season, Alvarez has struggled to find consistency at the plate, and he dropped from 25 homers as a rookie to just 11 last season. But Alvarez improved his batting average and on-base percentage in Year 2, as well as his throwing arm behind the plate. He now has 228 games of experience at the game’s highest level and is at an age when players tend to break out. Often lauded for his work ethic, Alvarez still has a chance to be one of the game’s top offensive catchers.

 

One prospect to watch in 2025: Brandon Sproat

Plenty of questions remain regarding Sproat’s ability to develop into a true frontline starter, yet he also has the best chance of anyone in New York’s system to make a significant midsummer impact. Just a step away from the big leagues, Sproat must first master the Triple-A level. But if he gets off to a nice start, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Sproat debut early in the season, as fellow prospect Christian Scott did last year. With a triple-digit fastball, Sproat (Mets' No. 1 prospect) boasts an even higher ceiling than Scott, as evidenced by his No. 40 overall prospect ranking per MLB Pipeline. At the highest level, he’ll need to be a pitcher not a thrower, which makes Sproat’s early-season development crucial to his chances.

 

Which Organizations Are The Most Scout-Friendly?

26 scouts responded to this question. Below are the results sorted by descending order of percentage, with vote totals included in parentheses.

Dodgers — 81% (21)

Padres — 73% (19)

Royals — 58% (15)

Rockies — 50% (13)

Yankees — 46% (12)

Phillies/Rangers — 38% (10)

Rays — 35% (9)

White Sox — 27% (7)

Nationals/Reds/Tigers — 23% (6)

Diamondbacks — 19% (5)

Blue Jays/Giants — 12% (3)

Athletics/Braves/Pirates — 8% (2)

Angels/Astros/Brewers/Cardinals/Mariners/Marlins/Twins — 4% (1)

Cubs/Guardians/Mets/Orioles/Red Sox — 0% (0)

 

1-6-25 – Minor League Transactions: Dec. 1–31, 2024

Matt Eddy

New York Mets

Signed: RHP Grant Hartwig (AAA)

Signed: RHP Oliver Ortega (AAA)

Signed: RHP Yuhi Sako (DSL)

Signed: OF Edward Olivares (AAA)

Signed: OF Alex Ramirez (AAA)

Released: RHP Alex Reyes (AAA)

Acquired: RHP Sean Harney (AA) from Rays for 2024 international bonus pool money

Rule 5 draft selection (minor league): RHP Michael Hobbs (AA/Dodgers)

 

1-3-25 - MLB International signing period (2024-2025)

Francys Romero

1-RHP Roki Sasaki (Japan)

DOB: 11/3/2001 (23) / H: 6-2 / W: 190 / B: R/ T: R/

Sasaki is the most advanced player for contributing to the Major Leagues in the short term in the current international period. I understand that his ranking alongside players between the ages of 16 and 18 is controversial, especially since the World Baseball Classic 2023 champion has played four professional seasons in Japan. However, he fits within the same parameters of the international system, which is a valid reason for his inclusion, just as it has been for Cuban players in the past.

No international talent or amateur draft prospect can now match what Roki Sasaki projects: an unparalleled pitching arsenal with a 100 MPH average fastball and a 92 MPH split-finger (his best pitch). His arm projects many years of contributions and a future multi-year contract worth between $200 million and $300 million.

 

4-SS/3B Elian Peña (Dominican Republic) New York Mets ($5,000,000)

DOB: 10/19/2007 (17) / H: 5-11 / W: 172 / B: L/ T: R/

Peña was evaluated as one of the best hitters in the class, very similar to Rafael Devers. He projects a lot of power in his game, even more than his hitting ability. One of the main concerns with players of Peña's talent type is his athleticism. Will he be able to stay at shortstop? He will have to fight to remain in the position, so he could end up at third or first base.

 

Both these two prospects are inter-related. The Mets are scheduled to sign Pena, but they are also trying to sign Sasaki. They only have enough International money for one.

Me?

I will take a seasoned, talented veteran over a 16-year old every day of the week.

 

1-2-25 -    Andrew Riddell      @andrewriddell26

Excited to start 2025 with some personal news by announcing that I have accepted a job as an international scout with the New York Mets.

Looking forward to a new opportunity and challenge while still continuing in my role with Baseball Australia as we get ready for a huge year.

I tried to reach out to him on X and find out what countries he would be scouting, but he didn’t respond.

 

1-1-25 - 1 question each team needs to answer before Spring Training

https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-question-for-each-mlb-team-before-spring-training?partnerID=web_article-share –

Mets: Will Pete Alonso be a Met?

At this juncture of the offseason, it’s not as if the Mets have committed to some other first baseman. Alonso is clearly the top slugger on the market, with an emotional attachment to Queens that runs both ways. For those reasons, Mets officials have long been honest when they’ve said they’d love to have Alonso back. 

Of course they’d love to have Alonso back -- provided he’s willing to return at a reasonable price. This is a negotiation that could stretch deep into the offseason, as Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, tries to find the best fit for his client. In the meantime, the Mets will stay in touch. 

Perhaps they’ll match any offer for Alonso’s services. Perhaps they won’t. In any event, it’s by far the biggest unanswered question for these Mets. -- Anthony DiComo

 

Keane                        @kranepool

The NY Mets have survived the trade and wavier loss of Tom Seaver Strawberry and Gooden leaving Wright retiring early due to injury and the Wilpon ownership losing Pete Alonso to another team isn’t a blip on the Mets Misery Meter

 

This gives me an opportunity to talk about Pete.

If you are reading this, Alonso hasn’t signed with any team yet. If he has, I would have already deleted this and you will never be able to read it. So there.

The entire Alonzo/Boras drama has reached the embarrassing stage. They need to make a decision, not for the Mets sake, but for the reputation of the player.

I want him back, at a limited year deal, and are willing to grant him opt outs if he wants them, but, if I was the Mets, I would pivot to other options real soon. Ryan Clifford could easily be an option on first in 2026, so a one-year fix is only needed.

Alonso’s latest salary demands have turned all this to the silly stage. My guess is he knows he no longer will be the centerpiece of this team and he’s looking for a new one to be the numero uno hitter.

 

1-1-25 -

One potential breakout prospect for each organization in 2025 –

Mets: Edward Lantigua, OF (No. 26)

Signed for $950,000 last January, Lantigua enjoyed a solid first season in the Dominican Summer League, earning All-Star honors alongside his .263/.397/.395 line and 122 wRC+ in 45 games. There is undoubtedly more power coming as he fills out his 6-foot-1 frame, though he showed that pop in flashes this summer. If and when it does, the 18-year-old could land anywhere in the outfield and be valuable, no matter if he needs to move off center full-time as some expect.

            To be honest, I stopped years ago trying to analyze players still at this level. I know for a fact that these 16-18 year olds are highly under-developed and, as much as team like the Mets have begun to improve on the quality of the coaches down there, they are still kids that never learned the proper ways to play this game until they signed with a professional organization.

 The understatement of the year is when you say that I guy that had 189 plate appearances, only hit one home run, and there is “undoubtedly more power coming”.

As I say whenever someone asks me about DSL players… “ask me in three years”.

 

Prospects1500 - Winter Talent and Summer Aspirations in the Venezuelan Winter League

https://www.prospects1500.com/general/winter-talent-and-summer-aspirations-in-the-venezuelan-winter-league/?s=03 –

Luisangel Acuña – Cardenales de Lara – Age 22. Last name sound familiar? Well, yes. It’s that Acuña. Ronald’s brother has already been in the big leagues with the Mets so it’s maybe not so much a promise and more of a reality. He played exceptionally well for the best team of the regular season. He took part in a little more than half of the games of the regular season and drove in 17 runs. For reference, 30 RBI in this league is the equivalent of 100 in MLB. His hitting line was .337/.419/.495.

I continue to be much higher on Acuna than others that post and comment here. 

On my team, he would be the starting second baseman for the Mets in 2025.