YOU CANNOT WHIFF IF YOUR PLATE APPEARANCE ENDS ON THE 1ST PITCH
I raised the issue of swinging more at first strikes, as it seemed to be really helpful to do just that in 2024 for Oakland’s Brent Rooker, while swinging at far fewer firsties seemingly was hurtful for Brett Baty.
Maybe it would help the Mets to swing at more first pitches.
Let’s see the 2024 results…
The Mets remarkably were 4th overall in RBIs in ABs ending on first pitches, with 145 RBIs.
But they were just 23rd in the total number of at bats ending on the first pitches, with just 638.
Houston had the most, with 887, a remarkable 249 AB incremental difference, and 39% more than your compiled.
In plate appearances ending on pitch #1, the Metsies hit.344/.364/.527.
Which is pretty good, huh?
- SeeRelevant Stats
The median team (ending their ABs on a first-pitch, zero strike count) hit a robust .335.
On plate appearances ending on a dreaded 2 strike count, however, the Mets had the 8th most such at bats, with 3013 (55% of their 5,505 total ABs).
Houston had just 2,706 at bats ending with 2 strike counts on the final pitch.
On those 2 strike at bats, the Mets hit just .176/.257/.279. Yuk.
That .176 average, though bad, was relatively good, however, being the 8th best of all 30 teams.
Seattle brought up the two-strike bottom, at a horrific .142. That is for a WHOLE SEASON, once their strike count was 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, or 3-2. Awful.
Obviously, the Mets’ slash line on ABs ending on zero strikes far exceeds that of their far more frequent ABs ending on 2 strikes.
It seems obvious to me that more at bats ending on zero strikes (first pitches) counts, and fewer on 2 strike counts, would boost the Mets’ offense team slash line.
Of course, the great Juan Soto’s 2025 swinging stats need to be carved out of the Mets’ 2025 team swinging stats. He is the super elite, other hitters are not. Including his ability to awesomely work pitchers let’s you know how the other Mets mortal hitters produce on different counts.
I have sufficient humility to realize I have NOTHING to say to Soto. No hints.
Other than to win the 2025 MVP award - we’d all love a Mets hitter finally winning an MVP award in 2025, in their 64th season.
Thoughts? I’ll bet you have a few, which I hope you’ll want to mention. After all, I’ve stated my case, of that I am quite certain.
Speaking of whiffers…
The Mets have a guy who Baseball Ref and Fangraphs both target to have a low slash line of approximately .210/.270/.390, a very high mid 30’s % K rate, with good pop, and a great glove?
Who?
Jose Siri.
So…if you can tolerate some frustrating offense, he should be a reasonable producer due to THAT GLOVE. You just might want to change the channels when he comes to the plate.
WITH STANEK, IS THE PEN COMPLETE?
Saw this picture on Facebook.
One picture is worth a thousand strikes.
Is it enough for a highly functioning bull pen core, supplemented by other guys already on the 40 man or in the minors?
I think so.
9 comments:
I always let the pitcher have his first pitch. Once it became obvious that I never swung on the first pitch I usually got a fastball right down the middle. That was what I wanted so I could set the speed of that pitcher in my mind going forward.
Prayers for the Potomac
^
+1
I hope the collision wasn’t deliberate. It seemed when I watched last night there was no course correction at all.
I strongly disagree with taking fat strike one. Not when all MLB hitters hit about .160 or so when they get to two strikes. If a pitcher fears a club will aggressively attack hittable strikeout ones, that first pitch has more likelihood of being Ball One.
Well. I'm sure our FBI director is all over this
Oh
Wait
If they ate hitting .160 they should be in the minors
Mack, the Mets, once they reached 2 strike counts in 2024, hit .176, EIGHTH BEST in the majors on 2 strike counts. Seattle lowest at .142. Average team - in the .160s. A bunch of guys swinging for the fences.
This is good stuff Tom. I did some similar analysis a while back and while the numbers I saw don't necessarily say that the at-bat actually ended on the first pitch, it does say that the overall results of an at-bat are generally better if you don't let the pitcher get the first advantage. Average, RBI, and power numbers are up (see Rooker) when swinging at the RIGHT first pitch. If the pitcher grooves one early, don't expect anything as hittable in that at-bat.
Anyone want to make any wagers that the eight relievers pictured are going to be the ones going north to Citi? (R69 is on record saying: Not a chance :-) )
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