Tom Brennan - Pete Alonso vs. Keith Hernandez

K.H. - MY FAVORITE METS FIRST BASEMAN

To the casual fan, Pete Alonso 

1) hits a lot of HRs, 

2) hits breathtaking HRs, and 

3) drives in runs.

So….”SIGN HIM!” Afterall, the casual fan loves Home Run Derby.

However, Mr. Alonso also has several warning signs:

a) in his first 3 full MLB seasons, he hit over .260, but his last two seasons? .229.

b) he fanned just 128 times in 2022, but 172 times in 2024, a serious 33% slippage.  And his K rate even slid a bit in the second half of 2024, as opposed to the first half.

c) he is turning 30, with what could already be early onset downward spiral.

d) try as he might, his fielding on the best of days is average at best.

e) he has little speed.

F) the high home run rate masks a low doubles rate of 27 per 162 games.

g) in his career, he hits .222 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position.

h) In his career, he hits 205 in late and close situations.

I) he accumulated just 2.6 wins above Replacement in 2024 despite playing every game.

J) he has averaged 3.9 wins above Replacement in the five full seasons he’s played in the major league. But declining - just 2.9 WAR  on average over the last 2 seasons (3.2, 2.6).

In other words, there are quite a few potential pitfalls with signing Pete to anything resembling long-term.

NOW….

Let’s compare Pete to a former Mets player who rather inexplicably is not in the Hall of Fame, Keith Hernandez. Pete came in to the majors like a ball of fire in 2019, hitting 53 homers at age 24. Keith Hernandez on the other hand, started playing in the majors much younger, at 20 and 21 years of age, with just 248 plate appearances spanning those two seasons.

In his last two career seasons, he was a broken shell of his former self. Aged out early. Negative WAR.

However in his 12 full years between those two extremes, he compiled 58.6 WAR, or 4.9 per year.  He was a career .296 hitter, with a .384 OBP. Take out the last two broken down years and he hit roughly .300 with .390 OBP for his career.

Which is pretty darned excellent.

He had on average nearly 10 more doubles and triples per season than Pete, somewhat offsetting the HR disparity, and Keith showed absolutely no deterioration at age 29, nor during his age 30-33 seasons.

Glove? He was arguably the BEST defensive first baseman ever. 

He also averaged 14 steals a year in a 5 year span in his 20s. 

And how clutch was he? Very.

He had a .405 career OBP with 2 outs and RISP, and hit .294 in “late and lose” situations. He was just SO TOUGH when games were on the line. He RELISHED those battles.  Recall how many times you saw him take “ball 4” in the middle of a rally, on a 3-2 count on a pitch just one or two inches out of the strike zone. What an eye.  He struck out roughly half as much as Pete.

Pete was likely hoping for Babe Ruth money (inflation adjusted).

He doesn’t, it seems, even deserve Keith Hernandez $$.

Pete should have signed that extension.

When he had the chance.

Instead, he’s upset the owner. Who signs the checks. And…

Who knows it is not about HR Derby.