1/20/25

Reese Kaplan -- "Who's On First" and "I Don't Know" On Third


With the Pete Alonso soap opera having concluded (at least temporarily), today let’s take a look at how the Mets approach their infield and offense for the upcoming 2025 season.

We know for a fact where the two Franciscos will play.  Lindor will continue to be the captain and man shortstop where his defense and leadership are just as important as his speed and his run production.  Alvarez will return behind the plate where hopefully he can stay a bit healthier and this nagging little things don’t sap his power as it did last season.  After that, the position battles on the infield are wide open. 

We do know that Mark Vientos’ bat will be in the lineup.  He will be ahead or or behind Juan Soto in the order but where he plays is right now a bit of a mystery.  He improved significantly on defense as the year progressed and shows the kind of arm you like to see from the hot corner.  The issue here, of course, is that the Mets have multiple others who could man the field alongside Lindor. 

Moving Vientos to first base is something pundits have kicked around as mostly wishful thinking while they were still certain the club would retain their nearly all-time home run hitter to play there.  Has Vientos done this job in the past?  Well, let’s just say not a whole lot.  In his major league career which actually began in 2022 he has logged 129 games at third base.  During that same period he has appeared in just 14 games at first base (only 9 of which came as a starter). 

It would seem if everyone is at worst hoping tho see a repeat of 2024’s offense from Vientos and at best an improvement, what would it mean to force him to replace Alonso which in and of itself would be a major amount of pressure while also asking him with limited defensive skills to master a new position?  Would the defensive pressure curtail the offensive progress?

The third option for Vientos would be to tell him, “You’re here for your bat!” and have him become a young but inexpensive and highly productive Designated Hitter.  This possibility takes the whole defensive part out of the occasion and relieves a lot of pressure.  Now he simply has to be better than an aging J.D. Martinez, Jesse Winker, Daniel Vogelbach or Darin Ruf.  Right now he’s already shown he is.

Bringing Vientos to first base allows the Mets to pick between Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuna, Ronny Mauricio and Jeff McNeil as in-house options who could take over where Vientos owned the slot last season.  That approach is not terrible but it is fraught with uncertainty.  Baty upped his power significantly last year but the batting average dipped.  He’s also sputtered in every former major league trial.  Acuna’s skill set is more likely a better fit for second base as he’s know for high OBP and awesome speed more than he is for run production.  Forgotten man Mauricio is by reports STILL recovering from the knee issues that already saw him miss all of 2024.  He’s more likely going to begin in AAA to prove he is healthy and capable.  That leaves McNeil coming off two straight full seasons of lackluster offense.  He has modest power and used to have a hit-to-all-fields skill set that seemed to have vanished until August/September. 

External options are available in trade like Nolan Arenado or in free agency like Alex Bregman.  From a budgetary standpoint you have the very same issues with Bregman and his Alonso agent Scott Boras.  With Arenado the money and term are less based upon the contract he signed, but to get anyone to embrace 2025 through 2027 to the tune of a total of $69 million which is right where the proposed 3-year deal to Alonso fell flat.  Arenado is a 9 time Gold Glove winner, an 8 time All Star, a career .285 hitter and someone who has eclipsed triple digits in RBIs 7 times.  He is getting older and will play the end of this contract at ages 34, 36 and 36.  He’s a healthier version of David Wright with more power and more RBIs. 

There are others who might be on the front office radar as possibilities.  Maybe Baty or Mauricio become part of a trade package to bring in another position of need such as a center fielder.  Right now the first base options are pretty limited with Mark Vientos being the seasoned veteran with 9 starts and Jesse Winker having zero.  That would likely make them less-than-ideal choices given their shallow experience there. 

I’m thinking if you do have Vientos take over at first then grabbing hold of Arenado with the Cardinals paying some of the salary would be worth sacrificing a prospect or two who have fallen out of favor.  Then you would have a defense possible with Vientos at first, Acuna at second, Lindor at short and Arenado at 3rd.  The improvements of Acuna and Arenado in the field could help win games. 

So if you are David Stearns and Carlos Mendoza looking to build a winning team’s lineup, what would you do?  

12 comments:

Steve said...

I have been on record as saying I would trade for Arenado. It appears to me that as things stand now, Soto's bat replaces Alonso's bat. Vientos needs to bat like Vientos. Be himself. In his last two years in Syracuse Vientos played a third of his games at first with a better fielding percentage compared to third. The transition to first should not be too troublesome.

I have also said I view center field bats to be a push with the bats of last year. Marte , with Winker, now at DH, is a push with Marte of last year. The same with the others. That would leave Arenado's bat to be compared to the DH bats of last year. I believe that he will definitely provide an improvement.
I believe that the addition of Arenado will improve the line-up as now constructed, improve the infield defense, and be a short-term contract allowing for the development and advancement of the multiple third base prospects. (I would use Baty as part of the trade for Arenado).
Now add another top bullpen arm.

Reese Kaplan said...

I'd also like to see another hitter in center field, a bench and a proven starting pitcher with an ERA under 4.00 for his career.

Tom Brennan said...

The Dodgers threw down the gantlet with the signings of Sasaki and the reliever. The Mets didn't want to respond, but probably have to.

Mack Ade said...

morning

1. I have a self proclaimed embargo on discussing first base

2. I too like Arenado, but I want to leave the team's budding new future all-star at third. His hard work there has earned it and I want nothing negative in his head when he gets up to bat

3. I agree with Reese on CF, but I think that one headed monster has sailed

4. I believe the Mets are not done in the pen, but getting close to being done everywhere else

Remember1969 said...

I'll talk just a little more about Pete and roster construction in general in my piece tomorrow morning, but I also think the CF question was answered when they traded for Siri. It is not optimal, and a little head scratching, but both Taylor and Siri are right handed batters. They can certainly get good defense from either, and probably enough offense by mixing, matching, and playing the hot hand.

Stanek is the guy I want back in the bullpen.

That Adam Smith said...

Good morning, Reese. Perfect headline, by the way. Fortunately for us, with the Wilpons (mostly) gone, the Mets are no longer the Abbot and Costello show.

I still believe McNeil will be our starting 2B, and after watching him smoke the ball for two months post ASB, I believe we’ll see a much improved offensive season from him. I’m also OK with the two-headed defensive monster in CF. Gotta keep a path open for either Williams or Gilbert to have a shot to become our long-term CF next season. I still feel that Alonso is better than 50/50 to be back, but if not I would seriously consider moving Vientos over, at least part time and trust him not to let it affect his hitting, as he’s likely to be a lot closer to an average defender at 1B than he’ll ever be at 3B. That would leave 3B open, and while I’ve always believed that Mauricio could be good there, you’re right that he’ll certainly need some AAA time after his year off, assuming he can get healthy at all (not a good sign that he’s still recovering a year in). With all of that, and if Alonso really is gone, I’d be OK giving Baty one more shot to see what he can do through Memorial Day or so (if he’s not traded first). He’s a better defender than Vientos, and you may as well find out. Don’t want to pay for years of Aranado’s continuing decline nor Bregman’s.

JoeP said...

Gives you a lot to think about Reese.

The idea of Arenado is starting to grow on me if all else fails. But you have to ask the question if you are considering this, why not Pete? For me to do this trade the Cards would have to pay at least 7m per year. My trade would be McNeil and Baty. Thats it.

As much as I hate our CF situation, I agree with Steve. My hope is that Gilbert steps up to take over the position by July. If he fails maybe Williams steps up next year.

Lastly, with our starters we have to do much better than Stanek.

Remember1969 said...

Joe, If you take a look at Stanek's ERA of 6.06 for the Mets after coming over from the Mariners at the end of July, I can see how you get to that conclusion . . can be much better.

However, if you look deeper and take 15 of his 17 appearances, he pitched to a 2.40 ERA with 15 innings, 9 hits, 4 runs, 21 Ks and just 6 walks. 10 of those 15 he did not give up a hit.

In his two bad outings, the first one was his first game for the Mets after flying across the country after the trade (3 ER in 1 inning). His second one was about two weeks later in Seattle against the team he was just traded from (4 ER in 1/3 of an inning).

I'd take the guy with the 2.4 ERA and 21Ks in 15 innings and forgive a couple of bad outings.

JoeP said...

69...sounds better the way you say it. I would take him back, but I still want another arm on top of that. (Yates, Robertson)

Remember1969 said...

Yates or Robertson would be fine. They really need to focus on guys that can go at least 2 innings 3 times a week. Guys that can go 4 innings twice a week would be good. I am hoping that is the space that Megill and Canning can get to (and excel??)

Paul Articulates said...

Yes to the return of Stanek. No to Arenado. He would be a huge gamble based upon his fall-off last year. He was the best at his prime, but everyone eventually hits that age wall.

Remember1969 said...

As I have been thinking about it, I have made a decent case to myself that an Arenado trade would not be the worst choice.
(1) He is still one of the best defensive 3rd basemen in the game.
(2) He has been in the middle of a pretty lousy situation in St. Louis for the last couple years. Even in his down years he has been the best they have. They have had an environment there that can't be good to play in.
(3) He is about 3 good seasons away from Hall of Fame discussion.
(4) If I make a comp, it is Scott Rolen. Rolen, like Arenado, had a couple down years at ages 31 and 32 and came back strong to lock up that hall of fame spot in his later 30's
(5) If he is hitting behind Lindor and Soto, he has been a good RBI bat in the past and has never had guys like these two ahead of him. I see him as being a great fit.
(6) It moves Vientos to first base for good and give the whole infield (ok, 3/4 of it) some stability for the foreseeable future.
(7) Even if they take the entire salary from St. Louis, it is only $21M per year for 3 years. That is only 2.5 WAR per. Seems doable to me.

On the other hand, it could be Jim Fregosi II. But I would bet that the move would work out a whole lot better than that. (and I ain't giving up Nolan Ryan to get him!)