MACK - MY Sunday Observations Report -

 

Good morning.

 

1-19-25 –

Jeff Passan                   @JeffPassan

When Tanner Scott’s deal is made official, the Dodgers’ luxury-tax payroll for 2025 will exceed $375 million. That is about $70 million more than the next-highest team, Philadelphia. The Yankees are the only other team with a CBT payroll projected to be over $300 million.

The Tanner Scott signing got me to the laptop early this week.

First, we all thought the only team that could pull off a team friendly extension was the Braves. Now, it seems only the Dodgers know how to throw out bonuses and make deferred payments.

I have no idea where this game is going financially. I assume the Dodgers can afford this and they project themselves still being a profitable team in 2025 and beyond.

What I do know is we are going to watch first hand whether you can buy yourself a World Series championship.

Is baseball fair?

Well, let’s go back to that Dodger 2025 payroll of $375mil. The entire payroll of the six seasons in this decade of the Marlins is $429mil.

But this doesn’t only fall on the Dodgers. The Marlins are estimated to receive $70 million in revenue sharing this year. At the same time, they have averaged spending just over that amount each season. Currently, per Cot Contracts, they have an estimated 40-man 2025 payout of $66.769mil.

So, the Dodgers can spend at will… which gives teams like Kansas City and Pittsburgh no chance of competing at that level… and Miami can operate below their intake of revenue sharing, thus guaranteeing them to profit on every dollar spent on tickets, parking passes, and burritos sold in the park, regardless of whether they win one game this season.

And I see no change in sight because the players and league just basically hate each other so much, they will never agree to something good for the game. No, they will continue to follow the money which the league continues to come up with silly new rules that are basically changing the game we love.

Salary caps?

Go watch football. 

 

I’ve watched other teams… the Dodgers, in particular… sign up aging, past their prime relievers to bloated contracts and I believe this is the time that the Mets must prioritize the development of their future relief corp.

Relief pitchers are like football’s running backs. They don’t have to be drafted on day one, but they do need to drafted before the draft is over. Most teams don’t deal with them in their first ten picks, but that needs to change this year for the Mets. Past efforts to re-train failed starters have currently brought only one success… Jose Butto.

In my opinion, two things need to be done this season:

1.     Designate the top 10 potential relievers in the organization and a) target the most important areas of improvement that are needed in their “game”, b) have them spend increased time in the labs this spring, and c) assign increased time with their respective pitching coaches throughout the season.

                                                                             

2.     Draft at least three top prep or college relievers in the first 15 Mets’ picks in this season’s upcoming draft.

Some current minor league relievers I would designate in the current potential reliever pool would be Bryce Montes de Oca, Cam Robinson, Dylan Tebrake, Justin Lawson, Trey McLaughlin, Joshua Cornielly, Eli Alkeney, Ryan Lambert, and Gregori Louis. You can add either Jeremy Peguero or Irving Cota to finish the list. 

 

1-24-25 –

The Mets signed  RHP Adbert Alzolay agreed to a minors deal, league sources told The Athletic. It’s a two-year deal; Alzolay had Tommy John surgery last August.

 

      Mets Analytics       @MetsAnalytics

In 2023 when he threw a qualifying number of innings, righty reliever Adbert Alzolay was excellent, combining elite control with solid chase rates and barrel avoidance.

His best (and most-thrown) pitch was his slider (44% of the time) which both righties and lefties hit under .210 against, for a sensational .264 overall xwOBA.

In his shortened 2024, that slider lost just a tick of velocity (87.5-87.2) and spin (2554-2497), which coincided with a drastic loss of swing-and-miss results (40.6% whiff - 27.5%).

Still just 29 years old, a worthy project for the Jeremy Hefner pitching lab!

 

      Mike Mayer      @mikemayer22

      Love these type of deals. Pretty much no risk and the upside of a guy who had a 2.67 ERA and 21.3 K/BB% in 2023.

 

Considering the fact that the current two Mets backend relievers both have an opt out after this season… well, this could prove out to be the steal of the Mets purchases this off season.

 

1-24-25 –

Building A Lineup Of MLB’s Best Positions Players 25 Or Younger

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/building-a-lineup-of-mlbs-best-positions-players-25-or-younger/?s=03

Mark Vientos, 3B, Mets | Age: 25

Vientos conveniently turns 26 after the upcoming season. Otherwise, Cubs prospect Matt Shaw would’ve been seriously considered for this spot, though it likely would’ve gone to Junior Caminero. The remaining options are Maikel Garcia, Noelvi Marte and Miguel Vargas.

As covered in October, Vientos is currently a one-dimensional hitter. He’s excellent at what he does, which is hitting for power. As shown, it plays to all fields.

His contact concerns mean a low floor if he can’t maintain last year’s improved swing decisions. Stardom could be there for the taking if Vientos is up for it. A summer of hitting behind Juan Soto should do wonders for his RBI upside.

 

Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets | Age: 23

Like Vientos, Alvarez has a shot at becoming a household name should he wind up hitting in the heart of the order behind Soto. He’s arguably the weakest player in this lineup, but catchers take time to develop. William Contreras and Adley Rutschman are both over 25, which leaves Logan O’Hoppe, Patrick Bailey and Austin Wells as options other than Alvarez.

“Troll” has posted a 99 wRC+ through nearly 800 big league plate appearances, but like Holliday, it’s crucial to consider his age. Alvarez is coming off his age-22 campaign where he dealt with a thumb injury.

 

1-23-25 –

Daniel Wexler          @WexlerRules

Mets have officially released Edward Oliveras. Oliveras will reportedly sign with the Orix Buffaloes off the NPB.

 

1-22-25 –

SNY                                @SNYtv

Jesse Winker says he is willing to play first base with the Mets: "I'm definitely comfortable - whatever is asked of me, I'll be ready". He and the Mets had brief conversations last year about the possibility

Hats off to the person that asked that question…

 

1-22-25-

Daniel Wexler            @WexlerRules

4 Mets make Baseball America’s top 100 prospects

#58 – Jett Williams

#61 – Brandon Sproat 

#92 – Jesus Baez

#99 – Nolan McLean

Ronny Mauricio made the 15 who just missed and Jonah Tong and Ryan Clifford both received at least 1 vote.

 

    1-22-25 –

    Geppett0       @0ut_of_line

    For those tracking:

    BP; BA; MLB

 

    Sproat: 39; 61; 40

    Jett: 48; 58; 52 

    McLean: 74; 99; n/a

    Benge: 71; n/a; 99

    Tong: 75; n/a; n/a

    Gilbert: n/a; n/a; 74

    Clifford: n/a; n/a; 87

    Baez: (120); 92; n/a

 

I thank Daniel for posting info like this on X.

Lesson one here… you have to produce top 100 results to remain on this list.

I’m surprised Tong didn’t make it. Judging from the Baez add, I guess Ernest now works for Baseball America.

 

 

1-22-25 –

Top 10 First Basemen in Major League Baseball for 2025

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/mlb-top-10-first-basemen/?s=03

5. Pete Alonso (Free Agent)

2024 Stats: 162 G, .240/.329/.459, 31 2B, 34 HR, 88 RBI, 10.1% BB%, 122 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR

Since taking the league by storm in his rookie season back in 2019 – when he belted 53 HR, drove in 120 RBI, while sporting a .941 OPS and a 144 wRC+ – Alonso has been a bill of consistency at the plate.

He’s posted wRC+ totals at 120 or higher with OPS totals above .780 in each of his six big league campaigns.

Other than the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, the 30-year-old has hit no less than 34 HR, 88 RBI while posting at least 2.1 fWAR.

Despite what was a down year for him in many respects this past season, Alonso countered a dip in HR, RBI and OPS with a 23 point rise in AVG, an 11 point jump in OBP, a leap back to a walk rate over 10% and even a one point jump in wRC+.

He was one of just two first baseman and four major leaguers to appear in all 162 games in 2024, which makes him a immense asset for whoever ends up landing him in free agency.

 

1-19-25 –

Top 10 Catchers in MLB for 2025

 

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/mlb-top-10-catchers/?s=03

10. Francisco Alvarez (New York Mets)

2024 Stats: 100 G, .237/.307/.403, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 102 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

Alvarez was limited to just 100 games in 2024 after missing time due to a ligament tear in his thumb, and his power seemed to be somewhat sapped when he was on the field (which wasn’t necessarily a concern for Mets hitting coach Eric Chavez). However, Alvarez still clubbed 11 homers and played above average defense behind the plate.

The newly-turned 23-year-old is just one season removed from a 2023 campaign which saw him hit 25 home runs and grade out as one of the best defensive catchers in the sport. With how young Alvarez is and how good he has looked when fully healthy, there’s reason for ample optimism in Queens, and it’s not just about their new free agent signing.

What I thought stood out the most here was that J.T. Realmuto did not make this list. Now THAT’S progress. 

 

1-19-25 –

Jim Koenigsberger            @Jimfrombaseball

"Keith Hernandez was dogging it, He’s the best defensive first baseman I’ve ever seen. But on offense, he was loafing. He loafed down the line on ground balls and he wasn’t aggressive on the bases. His practice habits were atrocious. He’d take BP, then head to the clubhouse to smoke cigarettes and do crossword puzzles. My coaches got after him, but he ignored them. My coaches said, “Get rid of that guy. He’s poisoning the whole club. What I couldn’t live with was his attitude."

Whitey Herzog

 

"If people don't want to come to the ballpark, how are you going to stop them?"

Yogi Berra