Remember's
Ramblings – Volume 2, Article 2
Jamuary 8, 2025
To swing or Not to swing?
Some interesting data
In Tom Brennan’s article this morning he discussed what
pitchers and hitters can do to get better faster. This piece piggybacks on this, focusing on Tom’s
theory of swinging at the first pitch of each plate appearance.
A little research reveals that the Mets as a team struck out 1382 times in 2024. Broken down that is 382 times when they swung at the first pitch and 1000 times when they took the first pitch.
That does not tell us much, so for better context, they swung at the first pitch in 1886 plate appearances meaning they struck out 20.25% (382 of 1886) of the time following their first pitch swinging.
They took the first pitch 4280 times striking out 23.36% (1000 of 4280) of the time they looked at that first offering.
This correlated to Tom's thinking, although not significantly and certainly not to the results that Brent Rooker has found.
Digging a little deeper there is better data to support Tom’s argument.
When swinging at the first pitch (1886 plate appearances) they:
- struck out 20.25% of the time (382 strikeouts)
- walked 2.8% of the time (54 walks)
- had a .267 Batting Average
- had a .293 On Base Percentage
- had a .470 Slugging Percentage
- had a .763 OPS
When taking the first pitch (4280 plate appearances) they:
- struck out 23.36% of the time (1000 strikeouts)
- walked 10.7% of the time (460 walks)
- had a .236 Batting Average
- had a .331 On Base Percentate
- had a .389 Slugging Percentage
- had a .719 OPS
So if there are any conclusions about Mets as a team first pitch swinging, they are:
- lower K %
- much lower BB %
- higher Batting Average
- lower On Base Percentage (far less walks)
- higher Slugging Percentage
- higher OPS
OR simply put more hitting in general
Where runs can be attributable to swinging or taking the first pitch of a plate appearance:
When swinging at the first pitch, the Mets scored 327 runs, or one run in every 5.77 plate appearances.
When taking the first pitch, the Mets scored 427 runs, or
one run every 10.02 plate appearances.
(That data comes up 14 runs short of the total of 768 runs
they scored in 2024. I do not know why.)
This is a stark data point, which correlates to the better hitting and slugging when swinging at the first pitch.
Data from the players
For some additional data, two of the 2024 key Mets were analyzed with a similar focus – Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso. Like any good scientific experiment, a pre-experiment hypothesis is done. One might think that Pete would be more extreme than Francisco when first pitch swinging. Let’s see:
Francisco Lindor:
When swinging at the first pitch (177 plate appearances) he:
- struck out 14.12% of the time (25 strikeouts)
- walked 2.8% of the time (5 walks) (interestingly enough, the same % as the team
as a whole)
- had a .304 Batting Average
- had a .328 On Base Percentage
- had a .579 Slugging Percentage
- had a .907 OPS
- had 33 RBI
- had 11 HR
When taking the first pitch (512 plate appearances) he:
- struck out 19.92% of the time (102 strikeouts)
- walked 10.0% of the time (51 walks)
- had a .262 Batting Average
- had a .350 On Base Percentate
- had a .470 Slugging Percentage
- had a .819 OPS
- had 58 RBI
- had 22 HR
Lindor followed the Mets data points almost exactly, when swinging at the first pitch, his OBP was down, but BA, Slugging, and OPS was up, even more considerably than the team as a whole.
Now Pete Alonso:
When swinging at the first pitch (174 plate appearances) he:
- struck out 18.39% of the time (32 strikeouts)
- walked 2.3% of the time (4 walks)
- had a .299 Batting Average
- had a .328 On Base Percentage
- had a .677 Slugging Percentage
- had a 1.004 OPS
- had 48 RBI
- had 17 HR
When taking the first pitch (521 plate appearances) he:
- struck out 26.87% of the time (140 strikeouts)
- walked 12.67% of the time (66 walks)
- had a .219 Batting Average
- had a .330 On Base Percentage
- had a .378 Slugging Percentage
- had a .709 OPS
- had 40 RBI (8 less
than his first pitch swinging outcome RBIs in about 3 times the amount of plate
appearances).
- had 17 HR (again
in, in 3 times the PA)
Wow! I like those numbers when he went up there looking to take a hack at the first pitch. The slugging and OBP numbers are what Tom has been talking about. Let’s send this to him and then sign him with the provision that he swings at at least 50% of the first offerings he sees.
Finally, without posting the details, a quick glance at the numbers put up by Mark Vientos in 2024 shows a similar overall graph to Pete Alonso. Mark’s OPS when swinging at the first pitch was 1.047, dropping to .738 when taking it.
(I apologize for the readability of this data - someday I will figure out how to do a better chart).
-R69
5 comments:
A very interesting analysis. Thanks for that.
Lindor is an excellent hitter, and his higher OBP taking the first pitch kind of offsets his swinging at the first pitch. So, he may find some value in this, but I am not suggesting he change anything.
Pete I think should be more aggressive. Frankly, Vientos, too.
But, this article to me further supports my thinking that, for those young sluggers who are trying to bridge the wide gulf in pitching quality between AAA and the majors, an emphasis on them being freer swinging, rather than attempting to work the pitcher (only to have the pitchers "work them") makes a lot of sense.
Again, not suggesting that a young slugger swing at every first strike....if a pitcher nails the black, you may be ill-advised to swing at that. But swing at every decent strike. Until you are a firmly established hitter.
Of course, some strategy might warrant taking. A pitcher may have very wildly just walked a few hitters. Unless the first ball to the next hitter (the young slugger) is right down Broadway, too god to sit and watch, it may be advisable to take a strike. Because the wild man may throw the next 4 out of the zone.
I still think that if a pitcher strongly suspects a Baty will be swinging at first pitch strikes, the pitcher may start throwing slightly out of the zone on that pitch. If a Baty can take that pitch, instant hitter count. If Baty watches a first pitch meatball go by, he is 0-1 and already a bit behind the 8-ball.
Rooker clearly steered clear of that in 2024.
Exactly...the data supports your theory "to a T". You make good points about the when and when not to be looking for that first pitch, but those first pitches that the pitcher throws knowing that a hitter is only going to swing at them a third of the time (at best) is killing the hitters.
I suggest perhaps a 50% swing ratio might be a reasonable ceiling, but certainly based on the data shown, more aggressiveness will lead to better overall results.
Yep, 25% for Vientos has not hurt him too much, but Pete's great 2019 was followed by 2020 struggles. Higher early swing rates will be a palliative. Ditto for Baty.
Interestingly, Mauricio's 2023 sample was small, but he swung at 31% of first pitches in his 108 PAs, and hit .248, with the swing rate higher, and the batting average better than both Baty and Vientos hit very early on.
I appreciate the analysis, but I think it is oversimplified by only looking at first pitch swings. I would prefer to say that a player hits better when he approaches the plate "ready to hit". That doesn't mean to swing at the first one, because sometimes it is simply a bad pitch. But it does mean that you should know where your most productive zone is, and if you see something in that zone, it may be the best pitch you will see in the at-bat, so SWING!
We sometimes watch Pete come to the plate and he takes the first pitch right down the middle because either he is looking for a different pitch type or simply taking one to see what the pitcher has. Sorry Pete, but that was the only strike you get. Now the pitcher will start a pitch there that breaks down or out of the zone so he flails at it to go down 0-2 and the rest is history. This is the absence of "ready to hit" behavior that we all want to disappear.
Hey Paul .. I certainly cannot disagree with you about the 'ready to hit' philosophy. I believe the data backs up your theory of pitchers throwing the first pitch down the middle because there is a better than 2 of 3 chance that the batter is not going to swing at it anyway. Any you are right - that is the easist way for a pitcher to get a batter out. Let them dig their own hole by inaction.
It seems like even a loud foul ball on the first pitch is better for the batter than to take an initial strike. 90% of this game is mental. The other half is where the ball is pitched.
Post a Comment