Now that the Pete Alonso drama has concluded, we can begin to look forward to the 2025 baseball season with a little more clarity on what can be expected. There may still be some roster manipulations and surprising performances coming out of spring training, but based upon the personnel on the current 40 man roster, some pretty reliable predictions can be made.
The Mets infield, barring any spring surprise or late trade deal, will likely consist of Pete Alonso at first, Jeff McNeil at second, Francisco Lindor at short, and Mark Vientos at third. Francisco Alvarez will start at catcher, and the outfield will normally consist of Brandon Nimmo in left, Jose Siri in center, and Juan Soto in right. The DH will likely see a platoon of Jesse Winker against lefties and Starling Marte against righties.
Given these presumed starters and their statistical history, it is reasonable to be excited for a great season because this represents a very talented team. However, the Mets play in the NL East which is full of talented teams. The Atlanta Braves had a down year last season due to an abnormal amount of injuries to significant players. With renewed health, they have a great lineup and a solid pitching staff. The Phillies won the division last year and had a powerful offense that scored 784 runs in the regular season complemented by a strong starting rotation and a good pen.
Today I will look at a comparison of these three teams to see how the Mets stack up in the infield. The other two teams in the division, the Marlins and Nationals, do not appear ready to compete for the crown yet, but the Nationals are improving fast. Of the three expected to compete for the NL East title, each position will look at their starters’ stats from the prior season – slash line for offense, and two Fangraphs metrics for defense DRS and UZR. DRS stands for defensive runs saved, a metric of defensive ability in the context of opponents’ run scoring chances. UZR stands for Ultimate Zone Rating, which is fairly complicated, but at its most basic level, it is a measure of the average amount of damage that batted ball would do and how often it is converted into an out, relative to average at the position. Zero is average, +5 is above average, and +10 is great.
First Base:
Atlanta: Matt Olson 2024 slashed .247/.333/.457; DRS=13, UZR=0.1
Philadelphia: Bryce Harper 2024 slashed .285/.373/.585; DRS=5, UZR=0.9
New York: Pete Alonso 2024 slashed .240/.329/.459; DRS=(-3), UZR=0.4
Even though all Mets fans were excited that Pete Alonso had re-signed with the club this year, he does not stack up well against the competition here. His offensive metrics were off in a down year in 2024, but even in a good year, his power and run producing ability measures up on par with Olson and a notch below Harper. Defensively, Pete is also third best among this group of three despite having one of his better years at the bag.
Second Base:
Atlanta: Ozzie Albies 2024 slashed .251/.303/.404; DRS=1, UZR=1.5
Philadelphia: Bryson Stott 2024 slashed .245/.315/.356; DRS=7, UZR=0.0
New York: Jeff McNeil 2024 slashed .238/.308/.384; DRS=1, UZR=(-0.6)
One could argue that McNeil is much better than his statistics show given that he got off to such a rough start. But even with his late season surge, he only ranks on par with these peers, as Stott is a better fielder and Albies is faster and delivers more power at the position. In a good year, McNeil hits for a better average than these guys, but it does not tilt the comparison.
Shortstop:
Atlanta: Orlando Arcia 2024 slashed .218/.271/.354; DRS=(-1), UZR=1.4
Philadelphia: Trea Turner 2024 slashed .295/.338/.469; DRS=(-14), UZR=(-1.2)
New York: Francisco Lindor 2024 slashed .273/.344/.500; DRS=1, UZR=3.5
Lindor is clearly the best of the three both offensively and defensively. Turner has been a great player in the past, but time seems to have caught up with him in the field. Arcia is adequate at short, but not as good as his predecessors at the position.
Third Base:
Atlanta: Austin Riley 2024 slashed .256/.322/.461; DRS=0, UZR=(-0.3)
Philadelphia: Alec Bohm 2024 slashed .280/.332/.448; DRS=0, UZR=4.1
New York: Mark Vientos 2024 slashed .266/.322/.516; DRS=(-6), UZR=3.5
Mark Vientos had a stellar season last year at the plate, and one could argue that he held his own against these two. However, Riley has a reputation for clutch hits and Bohm out-hit all of them last season. Vientos does not show favorably with the glove against these two, but he is young and learning the position.
Catcher:
Atlanta: Sean Murphy 2024 slashed .193/.284/.352
Philadelphia: JT Realmuto 2024 slashed .266/.322/.448
New York: Francisco Alvarez 2024 slashed .237/.307/.388
FanGraphs does not provide UZR ratings for catchers, but it is pretty easy to say that JT Realmuto is among the best in MLB behind the plate. His pop time and caught stealing percentage is superior to the other two and his offense was also much better. Alvarez has great potential, and could show well this year but he has a long way to go to catch Realmuto.
The results of this comparison do not favor the Mets. They have some solid players in each position, but so do their rivals. In my opinion, the Braves have the best defensive infield and the Phillies have the best offensive infield. The Mets are a little younger here, and you may see them begin to catch up in some areas, but there is a hill to climb. As you know, past performance does not always predict future results, so as the season unfolds we will see how the Mets perform in their division. They have a 3-game home series with the Phillies in April, but don’t play either rival again until mid-June.
14 comments:
Very nicely done
Happy to see Lindor report early today
Will be interesting to see when Pete drives up
I think the gap between the aging Realmuto and the growing Alvarez will narrow very substantially this year. The Mets won't be the best defensively.
I will continue to maintain that Tyrone Taylor is the center fielder and the poor hitting Siri will be a defensive back up. His bat is a major liability, and Taylor is a fine fielder and much better hitter.
Siri's bat should help Drew Gilbert break thru. If Drew stays healthy and erases the disaster of 2024.
I hope your right Tom. Because a below .200 batting average destroys a lineup.
Paul, you stole my thunder
I was going to publish something similar. Back to the drawing board.
Nick Madrigal arrived
This kind of segues into an article I am working on for tomorrow morning. Just to clarify, the UZR is a fielding metric and your line of "Zero is average, +5 is above average, and +10 is great" defines UZR or DRS? It seems more applicable for DRS?
Ryne Stanek arrived
The outfield is not yet addressed - it's all yours if you would like to.
From the Sabremetrics library:
Context:
Defensive statistics should not be taken as 100% accurate, just like anything. There are plenty of reasons why they might not be telling you a complete story, and the Overview section goes into a lot of detail about that. As far as interpreting UZR, if you’ve gotten to that point, the scores can be broken down into the following tiers. This is a good shorthand way of evaluating a player’s defensive ability level:
Defensive Ability UZR
Gold Glove Caliber +15
Great +10
Above Average +5
Average 0
Below Average -5
Poor -10
Awful -15
Mack,
I see where Dylan Covey has declared free agency rather than reporting to Syracuse.
Shame
At least it wasn't Willie McCovey leaving
The way I look at it though, Tom is if you’re going to tread water with a CF and keep the spot free until one of your prospects is ready, you could do worse than signing a top 3 defensive guy with the best CF arm in the league who hit 25 HR in 360 AB’s a couple of years ago. He’s definitely going to K a lot though, and anything over a .215 BA would be a gift. Taylor’s also plus defensively, and did show offensive flashes last year. Could see him OPS’ing .725+
Yeah, it’s a relative hole in the lineup, but they should get some value and some cover for range limitations on the corners.
Adam, I just really hate having a .200 hitter with a .260 OBP in the line up. Remember Keon Broxton - very similar. I frankly don't understand why guys like Siri don't learn how to increase contact on 2 strike counts.
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