Reese Kaplan -- Is the Starting Pitching Ready to Contend?

Some people disagree with me regarding the state of the Mets roster as I outlined for everyone yesterday.  They call me cynical, unappreciative and negative.  Yup, I’m all of those things.  That’s how you stay ahead of things by being prepared.  Towards that end, let’s take a look at the To Do List now that most folks feel that all that has been said and done is all that’s needed for the team to go all the way to the World Series. 

On the starting pitching front, there are most definitely some question marks mentioned over the past few months.  Beginning with Kodai Senga, no one knows if he is the 2023 pitcher who absolutely dominated upon his introduction to baseball in America or if he is capable of moving past the injury plagued season of 2024.  Right now he’s theoretically the ace despite many claiming the next name on the list deserves that honor.

Sean Manaea’s free agent contract last year was met with tepid satisfaction when he was brought on board for the 2024 campaign during David Stearns’ rookie season as the head baseball honcho.  No one could have predicted how the change in delivery would catapult Manaea from a mid tier pitcher as he was in the past but propels him towards the front of the rotation.  His work was commendable for sure.  He finished 2024 with a record of 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA.  The number that jumps out to me is the WHIP which was barely above 1 runner per inning pitched.  He got a fresh new contract and obviously folks hope he can replicate or even improve upon those numbers.

Next comes the “where did HE come from” pitcher, David Peterson.  The big lefty has always shown flashes of brilliance but health problems apparently took their toll on his overall ability to pitch at an elite level.  Well, after a bit of a late start he finished last season with eye popping numbers — 10-3 with a 2.90 ERA.  He was giving up a few too many base runners, but even showed off his adaptability by working successfully out of the pen in the postseason.  Like Manaea, you hope he can replicate what he did but there are certainly doubters out there who have seen what he’s done for most of his career.

Clay Holmes may indeed be the true key to how far the Mets can progress towards October baseball.  As a relief pitcher for the Yankees he was among the best in the game.  In the last three full years in the Bronx after a mid season rescue from Pittsburgh he has delivered some pretty impressive numbers.  The 14-13 records won’t impress you but the 2.85 ERA and the better than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio certainly will.  Add to it a WHIP of 1.165 and you can see why David Stearns agreed to the experiment to make him into a starting pitcher.  It’s realistic to expect some growing pains, but those numbers were the result of just under 200 games for the Yankees, so it’s not as if they were just a brief hot streak.  If he makes it like Seth Lugo did then he can be a huge difference maker.

Now we get to the 2025 version of the Luis Severino signing with Frankie Montas.  If you recall, Severinto had both health and performance issue which made him available at a lower price than you would expect for someone of his experience and past accomplishments.  That worked out quite well as he finished with a solid if unspectacular 3.91 ERA and landed himself a big ticket deal.  Montas, unfortunately, has never had a pattern of long term success.  He’s a 4.09 ERA pitcher for his career and except for his 2021 season in Oakland when he finished at 3.37 with a 13-9 record he has been at best a 4th or 5th starter.  I don’t pretend to understand the seeming overpay for him when you could have had Jack Flaherty or saved money and gotten likely similar performance out of the much less expensive Tylor Megill.  He is a very expensive wildcard selection. 

Behind them you have the aforementioned Megill, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning, Max Kranick and a variety of other wannabes.  Given the question marks on the rotation as it stands right now there should be no one disinterested in finding another number one or two caliber starting pitcher.

Next we’ll look at the bullpen, the bench and the starting lineup.  Indeed, there’s still room for improvement in all of them.