Paul Articulates - Is the Mets pitching THAT good?

You see the stories and posts all over – the Mets pitching staff is leading the league in ERA by a wide margin.  Starters, relievers, and every category you can imagine are getting top billing.  This wasn’t expected to happen.  Most pundits would have said the Mets staff is average to slightly above average on paper, particularly compared to most of the teams expecting to contend this year.  So I wondered, “is this real?” or is it an aberration?

First, let’s set the facts.  As of Monday night’s results, the New York Mets were leading MLB with a 1.72 ERA.  That is almost a run better than the second best staff, the Los Angeles Dodgers who own a 2.63 ERA.  Slice it by starters, and the Mets are ahead again at 2.16 compared to the Dodgers and Rockies at 2.61.  Slice it by relievers, and the Mets are ahead again at 1.15 versus the next-best Padres at 1.74.

The stats don’t lie – this is some remarkable performance so far.  You have seen the tremendous consistency in the pitching metrics shared by Mack lately.  But is the pitching or is it the competition?  We have played three full and one partial series so far against the Astros, Marlins, and Blue Jays.  

The Astros aren’t hitting the ball well against anyone so far with a .202 team batting average that ranks 27th in MLB, but the Marlins have been OK at .237 (middle of the pack) and the Blue Jays are sixth in MLB with a .267 team batting average.  Their .717 OPS is also pretty good, so when you hold them to three runs over three games, that is saying something.

Sometimes statistics can be skewed by individual performances (positive or negative), so I looked at the distribution across the staff.  It is nothing short of amazing.  Of 13 pitchers that have recorded outs for the Mets this year, eleven of them have an ERA under 3.00 right now.  Eleven of the thirteen also have a WHIP of 1.5 or below.  This represents remarkable control over the opponent’s bats.

When you get results like this across the board and it was not achieved by spending $1B on the best of the best, there has to be a systematic reason for this performance.  I would attribute it to two things – the pitching lab technology and the coaches’ mastery of that data.  You can’t succeed without both.  

Data is data – and as we know by watching the news every day it is possible to make statistics say anything you want by cherry picking the right numbers.  In today’s case, the Mets pitching coaches and player development team have refined the art of using the RIGHT data to inform their decisions on which mechanics to focus on, what pitches to develop, and how to guide the pitchers without overwhelming them with change.

I know that over the course of a season, these arms will be tested.  We will run into hot teams with hot hitters, stadiums with thin air or winds blowing out, and umpires that shrink the strike zone.  The year-end numbers will not likely be as impressive as they are today.  But I think we can say that the team’s investment in technology and expertise is paying large dividends already.  

If the 13 guys they rostered to start the season are exhibiting this level of performance, just imagine what will come from the dozens of prospects making their way up through the development system with time to absorb plenty of this guidance.

You have done well, David Stearns and Steve Cohen!  Hang on to these guys!