Reese Kaplan -- It's Not Too Early to Rerun the Alonso Bidding War

Sometimes writing on the other side of the world makes for some timeliness sacrifices.  You’re either way ahead or way behind the curve when stories are put together.  Today, for example, baseball media went over the top on the subject of the Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. contract extension and its implications for the New York Mets who were presumed to be among the front runners for his services in 2026 if indeed his free agency came to fruition.  Now it’s time to see what the Plan B turns out to be.

The first and foremost consideration, of course, is Pete Alonso.  With Guerrero off the block it would appear the Polar Bear now leads all first baseman in attractiveness as an offensive weapon.  Yes, he’s on a two-year deal with the Mets that is unbalanced with $30 million of its payment coming in 2025.  Despite having auctioned himself unsuccessfully to an out-of-town highest bidder this past off season, one would think it’s a no brainer that Alonso would opt out and once again see what the market will bear.

For a frame of reference, Guerrero is set to earn $36 million per season for the next 14 years.  Given Alonso’s 4-year seniority in age, it’s unlikely anyone would go more than 5 years on him as he is pretty much a one dimensional player. 

Now don’t get me wrong about that characterization being a slam at what he can do.  How many other hitters in baseball can annually average 43 HRs and 113 RBIs per every 162 games?  You’d not even use up the fingers on a single hand counting them.  There’s Shohei Ohtani and...???

Now with Alonso although he’s been quite healthy and misses very few games due to illness or injury, he’s at best an adequate first baseman who won’t win any Gold Gloves.  He also whiffs too frequently which is perhaps why his lifetime batting average is a modest .249.  Still, the name of the game these days is WAR and for his young career Alonso has (not including 2025 and bypassing the COVID-shortened 2020) achieved a WAR score over 20.  At an average of 4.0 per season in this regard he’s a very productive hitter (and that was all before Juan Soto was on his team, too). 

Now depending on whose calculations and projections you choose to believe, 1.0 WAR is worth on average about $9.5 million.  Consequently if you project 4.0 WAR per season that would add up to $38 million.  Consequently at his current salary of $30 million he’s underpaid.  Even if you slid back the calculation to the more modest $8 million per WAR, that’s still $32 million.  That number, of course, doesn’t include things like fan loyalty and merchandising.  $32 million for 5 years would be a $160 million contract and that number would appear to be about where a guy who would be playing towards his 36th birthday should be earning. 

However, what if the Plan B isn’t to renegotiate and extend Pete Alonso but to look at alternatives?  Right now it’s premature to think about the in-house options in the minors.  Joey Meneses has some real power and costs next to nothing, but in parts of three seasons for Washington he did not approach Alonso’s level of performance.

Who is out there that could be acquired via trade or free agency?  The first big name to consider is upcoming free agent Kyle Schwarber whose contract expires at the end of 2025.  Although he has been primarily a DH for the Phillies, with the Mets he’d be taking over at first base.  Given that he’s already 32 years old his rate would be considerably less than what you would pay Alonso but he would bring a similar type of offensive threat to the plate. 

After that the options in free agency are not direct position fits for the Mets, though some of them are certainly highly credible offensive players.  Alex Bregman has an opt-out after this season but he’s already earning $40 million per year on the three year deal he got from the BoSox, so you’re not saving any money there.

Bo Bichette is set to be a free agent as well.  After his lower body injuries and .225 batting average in 2024 people are going to look long and hard at his 2025 season to assess his truth worth.  He’s young at 28 and currently earns just $17.5 million for averaging 24 HRs and 91 RBIs.  He’s a two time All Star and is regarded as a better than average fielder.  The issue here, of course, is named Francisco Lindor and unless Bo wants to do a Derek Jeter/Alex Rodriguez position shift to the left or right, he doesn’t seem to give him the shortstop “I’m the man!” vibe he’d get with other clubs. 

The fourth option is perhaps the most interesting one.  Kyle Tucker first for the Astros and now for the Cubs is proving to be a highly productive hitter.  Since becoming a regular player in 2021 Tucker averages over 30 HRs and over 100 RBIs per season while hitting .275.  His WAR numbers are better than Alonso, but there’s a guy in his position of right field named Juan Soto.  Still, for the offense he provides it’s conceivable for the Mets to move Soto to DH to open up RF for Tucker.  Then we’re back to the shift Mark Vientos across the diamond to play first base while Ronny Mauricio and company fight it out for third base.  The 28 year old lefty slugging Tucker earns $16.5 million this year from the Cubbies. 

Trades are possible, too, but for now it’s easier to be a high bidder than it is to put together a package to entice another team to give up a first baseman who is being highly productive for them.  Still, anything’s possible.