Analyzing the Cyclones Pitching Staff

The Cyclones had strong performances this year from four starters, Mark Cohoon, Jim Fuller, Collin McHugh and Brandon Moore. None of these players are considered high-level prospects at this point, but they can each build off of a solid showing in Coney Island in 2009. The Cyclones' fifth starter, Darin Gorski, a seventh-round pick of the Mets in 2009, had a disappointing season.

Here is my analysis of the Cyclones' top four starters:

Mark Cohoon: 14 GS 92 IP 2.15 ERA 69 H 20 BB 70 K BAA .210

The Good: Cohoon was terrific through his 14 starts in the NYPL. He gave up less than a base runner per inning (.967 WHIP), and normally pitched deep into games (he averaged 6.571 innings per start) for the Cyclones this season. The Texas-native proved to be a workhorse all season, setting the franchise record for innings pitched. Cohoon had a relatively low K/9 total, with 6.8 but he pitched to contact effectively, which allowed him to pitch deep into games. With an impressive GB% of 60.4%, Cohoon may be the most best-equipped Cyclone starter to find success as he ascends through the organization and leaves a very pitcher-friendly league. Cohoon is one of the few Brooklyn pitchers that has age on his side. He was slightly over the age average in the NYPL this year but nothing dramatic. Cohoon, who just turned 22 in mid-September, has plenty of time to move through the system.

The Bad: There was not much to complain about with Cohoon’s 2009 campaign; the Mets just have to wait and see if he can build off of his strong season at the next level. One potential problem with Cohoon is projectability. He is a guy that is very polished, and was too advanced for NYPL hitters, but it is unclear if he will have the stuff to be successful in higher leagues. If Cohoon will eventually hit a wall at some point it may be because he doesn’t strike out many hitters. It only gets harder to strike out hitters as you go up through the minor league system, so the 6.8 K/9 total is somewhat concerning, for a short-season team.

The Future: Expect Cohoon to spend next year in Savannah’s rotation. Due to his age and ability to induce groundballs, Cohoon can develop into a prospect with a solid showing in the Sally. But if he doesn’t make it, he would not be the first pitcher to dominate the NYPL for the Mets, only to hit a wall soon after. Will he become a solid arm with the chance of making the big leagues (like Tobi Stoner) or will he become just another organizational arm (like Dylan Owen)?

Jim Fuller: 12 (11 GS) 63 IP 2.86 ERA 58 H 15 BB 67 K

The Good: Fuller had a very impressive strikeout rate (K/9) of 9.6. Although he is of small stature, Fuller's fastball has surprising pop, and was used successfully as an out pitch in the NYPL for the lefty. It was not rare to see Fuller go upstairs and beat a hitter with a high fastball, which is something you would not expect when you first see the lefthander's, who is listed at just 5'10. Lefties hit only .203 off of him in Coney Island, so he may have a future in the bullpen if the Mets decide to return him to a relief role. In 2008, he pitched in 18 innings, as mostly a reliever for the Cyclones, allowing only two runs total. His K/9 rate was 11.0. He was victimized by bad luck in 2009. Cyclones' bats tended to be quiet when he took the mound, so he only ended up winning three games, even though his ERA was 2.86. Also, batters had a high BABIP against him (.344) which may partially be contributed to some bad luck, especially after looking at how few line drives he gave up (9.9%).

The Bad: Fuller was only fourth on the Cyclones' staff in ERA. He also did not pitch very deeply into games. He averaged 5.575 IP per start, which ranked third on the Brooklyn staff, behind workhorses Cohoon and Brandon Moore. His H/9 mark was high at 8.3, but as stated above, that may have had to do with bad luck, although the BABIP against him in his 18 innings of work in 2008 was also high at .366, which is still a small sample, but may indicate a trend, rather than bad luck against Fuller.

The Future: For now, it is unclear what his immediate future is. Will he be a starter or reliever next season? Down the road he will most likely be converted back to a relief position. He strikes out a lot of hitters, and his fastball has the potential to be a major league pitch. While the rest of the Brooklyn staff may eventually flame out, Fuller probably has the highest "floor" as a guy who has the best chance to make it in a major league bullpen as a LOOGY.

Collin McHugh: 14 GS 2.76 ERA 61 H 22 BB 79 K

The Good: McHugh led Brooklyn in strikeouts, despite pitching seven fewer innings than Brandon Moore and 17 fewer innings than Cohoon. His 79 strikeouts were fourth-best in the New York-Penn League. The righty's 9.5 K/9 ratio is the second-best out o the starters. McHugh faired especially well against righties, allowing just a .166 BAA against them. He had a very strong end to his season: over his last five starts, McHugh pitched 28 innings, giving up only 16 hits and three runs. That span was highlighted by a seven inning outing on August 3, when he gave up just three hits and a walk to Jamestown and struck out 12.

The Bad: McHugh surrendered the highest BB/9 ratio of the four, giving up 2.5 walks per nine inning, although that is not a terrible number, it probably contributed to his relatively short starts—he averaged 5.384 innings per start, the worst average of the four. (However, that number includes his last regular season start which was a short two-inning outing in preparation of the playoffs.) He also hit five batters, a team high. The righty gives up a lot of fly balls (40.1%), which will catch up with him. He allowed just one home run this year, while giving up 16 doubles. Expect some of those doubles to turn into home runs in the future.

The Future: Expect McHugh to end up in Savannah with most of his rotation mates from this season, because St. Lucie’s rotation will most likely be occupied by the current group of Sand Gnats (Familia, Carson, Allen and Beaulac). He is about the same age as Fuller (turned 22 in mid-June) which makes him old for the Sally, so his third year in the system will be critical for him. He did have a couple of very impressive outings this season, and he is more of a strikeout guy than Moore and Cohoon, so that he will have an edge in that aspect next season. He will be a good under-the-radar guy to lookout for next season, as he was overshadowed by the other members of the Brooklyn rotation in 2009.

Brandon Moore: 13 GS 2.09 ERA 82 IP 61 H 17 BB 71 K

The Good: Well, Moore was as good as anybody in Brooklyn for most of the season in 2009. Cohoon edged him out for the Sterling Award, but his 2.09 ERA was the best on the team, barely besting his lefty teammate, who posted a 2.15 ERA. Moore carved himself a place in Cyclones history by pitching the team’s first ever no-hitter. That performance was one of two complete game shutouts on the season for Moore, although both were shortened seven-inning double header games. The 6-foot-3 righty was a workhorse for Brooklyn, consistently pitching late into games. He averaged 6.307 innings per start.

The Bad: Cyclone ringer? Moore will turn 24 in January—he was way above the league average in the NYPL. His age really kills his chance to develop into a prospect.

The Future: Moore can only pitch where the Mets assign him to do so, and he has done a good job through the first two seasons in the system, but his age is hard to overcome. He may develop into a secondary prospect down the line, but his ceiling is the lowest of the four starters. But if he continues to get hitters out, he will climb through the minors. It’s not unheard of to see a 26-year-old or 27-year-old rookie in the big leagues, so you can’t count anybody out who dominates like he did. But there have been plenty of Cyclones in the past who dominate the NYPL, only to struggle badly a year or two after. Moore would fit the mold as one of these guys.

Conclusion: Brooklyn’s roster lacked the highly-touted names that they had in 2008, but the Cyclones’ staff was excellent this year. Clearly, none of these guys have the ceiling of Jenrry Mejia or Brad Holt, but they have a chance to become decent prospects, especially Cohoon, McHugh and Fuller. Expect most of these guys to appear in Savannah next year, although on them may make the jump straight to St. Lucie if there is room there and the Mets think one of these guys can handle the challenge. It is typical of the Mets to put polished pitchers in Brooklyn, where the hitters are overmatched. Only time will tell if some of these guys are real good pitchers, or if they were just too advanced for the NYPL. Can’t fault these guys for pitching in Brooklyn., they did all they could in the level they were placed. Now, in 2010, we will begin to sort out the real prospects from the imposters.