Hot Stove Report: To Accept or Risk Getting Kyle Lohse'd

This will be only the second season of the new "Qualifying Offer" free agent compensation system that was put in place with the last CBA. Last year we saw how influential this designation can be, both positively for the club and possibly extremely negatively for the player.

Last season 9 players were extended Qualifying Offers of $13.3M.

Michael Bourn	signed 2/11/13	4 yr/$48M	AAV $12M
Josh Hamilton	signed 12/13/12	5 yr/$125M	AAV $25M
Hiroki Kuroda	signed 11/20/12	1 yr/$15M	AAV $15M
Adam LaRoche	signed 1/8/13	2 yr/$24M	AAV $12M
Kyle Lohse	signed 3/25/13	3 yr/$33M	AAV $11M
David Ortiz	signed 11/2/12	2 yr/$26M	AAV $13M
Rafael Soriano	signed 1/15/13	2 yr/$28M	AAV $14M
Nick Swisher	signed 12/23/12	4 yr/$56M	AAV $14M
BJ Upton	signed 11/28/12	5 yr/$75M	AAV $15M

Outside of Josh Hamilton, who received a ridiculous contract from the desperate Angels, all of these players received minimal raises to the arbitration offers or even lost money in Bourn, LaRoche, and Lohse's case. In exchange for letting their players walk the teams received the following draft picks. We can see that the longer a QO free agent waits to get the right deal, the less he ends up earning. Kyle Lohse was effected negatively the most.  Not only did he receive less than his QO of $13.3M, but he made even less than his prior season salary of $11.8M.

With a year's worth of data, free agents are now going to have to decide whether or not it truly is wise financially to decline the QO like all 9 guys did last year. This year's list includes the following:

Ubaldo Jimenez	Carlos Beltran	Jacoby Ellsbury
Hiroki Kuroda	Robinson Cano	Curtis Granderson
Brian McCann	Shin-Soo Choo	Ervin Santana
Kendrys Morales	Nelson Cruz	Stephen Drew
	Mike Napoli

Granderson immediately sticks out as someone who could get "Kyle Lohse'd." By that I mean end up waiting for Ellsbury and Choo to determine what the market is and by the time they both sign it is already January and Granderson's options become limited. It happened to Michael Bourn as well last season. He waiting to see what BJ Upton and other OF'ers were going to get then next thing you know his only options were the Mets and the Indians, which neither team was flush with cash.

Of course this designation completely benefits the team themselves. First off, the teams that these players left, received quality draft picks which they used on some big name prospects listed below. Secondly even though they had to forfeit a pick, it gave smaller market teams, like the Indians, an opportunity to snag a big name without breaking the bank.

Cardinals	Rob Kaminsky	GCL (R)	3.68 ERA	11.5 K/9
Rays	Ryne Stanek	DNP
Rangers	Travis Demeritte	GCL (R)	.285 AVG	26 DP turned
Braves	Jason Hursh	SAL (A)	0.67 ERA	6.7 H/9
Yankees	Aaron Judge	DNP
Yankees	Ian Clarkin	GCL (R)	10.80 ERA	7.2 K/9

All of the guys listed above, outside of Clarkin, were stars at their schools and have the potential to be future MLB players.

Qualifying Offer Free Agents will have till November 11th at 5pm to decide whether they are better served banking the $14.1M salary next season or go for the big pay day and risk getting Lohse'd