11/1/13

Mack Ade – Morning Report – 11-1-13 – BoSox, Jacoby Ellsbury, Off-The-Cuff, LAD Outfield, Johan Santana

avatar - writerIt took 34,478 days for the Boston Red Sox to win the World Series at Fenway Park. 

 

Mets activate seven from 60-day DL - Ike Davis, Josh Edgin, Matt Harvey, Jeremy Hefner, Jenrry Mejia, Bobby Parnell and Scott Rice

 

Steven Goldman -

The Red Sox won't have to do that. Back in September, I wondered if the Red Sox have the greatest farm system of all time.  Jackie Bradley, Jr., Xander Bogaerts, and Brandon Workman have just arrived. Garin Cecchini, Mookie Betts, Henry Owens, Matt Barnes, Christian Vazquez and more will be here in short order. With many key players about to reach free agency, this version of the Red Sox roster may be one-and-done, but the Red Sox franchise is likely to be cock of the walk in the AL East for some time to come. http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/10/31/5049576/world-series-2013-wrap-red-sox-win-cardinals

Let’s not forget…  the Yankees are old, their farm system is a mess, and the Mets have Travis d’Arnaud, Wilmer Flores, Vic Black, Rafael Montero, Noah Syndergaard, and Cesar Puello coming through the pipeline this year. Let’s not limit our focus to trading and free agency. This team is going to get much better by the end of 2014.

 

Sadly, the Domincan Republic passed a law that will all but kill any chance for kids from Haiti to playing this game – READ THIS: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/63501436/

 

Ken Rosenthal

Jacoby Ellsbury’s hand was so badly bruised that his teammates wondered how he was playing at all.  Ellsbury had also been battling a foot injury, but the hand was the real issue. Now that the World Series is over, Ellsbury will get an MRI on his hand, and the true damage will be known.  Up until now, he had been diagnosed with a severe bone bruise. http://sportsinjuryalert.com/red-sox-jocoby-ellsbury-was-more-hurt-than-we-realized/

                Mack – Could affect the big-buck FA contract out there…

 

Sandy Alderson

                “Fred Wilpon was speaking off the off…”

Adj. 1. off-the-cuff - with little or no preparation or forethought; "his ad-lib comments showed poor judgment"; "an extemporaneous piano recital"; "an extemporary lecture"; "an extempore skit"; "an impromptu speech"; "offhand excuses"; "trying to sound offhanded and reassuring"; "an off-the-cuff toast"; "a few unrehearsed comments"

ad-lib, extemporaneous, extemporary, extempore, impromptu, offhand, offhanded, unrehearsed

unprepared - without preparation; not prepared for; "unprepared remarks"; "the shock was unprepared"; "our treaty makers approached their immensely difficult problems unprepared"- R.E.Danielson

                               

Dylan Hernandez/LA Times –

What happens in the Dominican Republic winter league could significantly affect the Dodgers’ plans for next season…  Dee Gordon attempts to move from shortstop to center field. Gordon will primarily play center field for Tigres del Licey, according to a person familiar with his plans but unauthorized to speak publicly on the matter

This is a depth move for the Dodgers for a guy that hasn’t worked out at SS. If it works (and you really won’t know until around the all-star break), it could create an opportunity to acquire Joc Peterson.

 

Adam Rubin

                The Mets will pay Johan Santana a $5.5 million buyout to avoid being responsible for a $25 million option for next season, according to an industry source. The buyout needs to be exercised within five days of the World Series, although the Mets likely will not wait that long. http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/9908563/johan-santana-new-york-mets-2014-option-bought-out   zz

                Mack – Do you think Sandy could convince Johan to up the anti another mil and come back  under a minor league contract? There’s no big trick here. He was going to get the five million anyway, but you have to wonder how many people will make a run at him after all his problems. I would love the chance of pitching him in Vegas during April and, if it worked out, renegotiate a one-year deal before bumping him to Queens.

                Think Boston worst to first.

 

Jose Gordillo  -

What makes Carlos Beltran’s case for the Hall so interesting, and debatable, is he’s neither an obvious “yes”  nor an obvious “no.” He hasn’t reached either of the two major milestones that tend to make position players locks for the Hall (500 home runs, 3,000 hits) and likely won’t. Despite having more postseason home runs than Ruth, he has a little more than half as many in the regular season — 358 at the end of the 2013 season. That’s a good total, but it’s hardly enough to make him a lock, considering the era he’s playing in. Among active players, he’s ranked 13th. And among all players, he ranks 81st behind non-Hall of Famers Joe Carter and Dale Murphy. http://throughthefencebaseball.com/carlos-beltran-future-hall-famer/39489#M2E3zfqVdSjdfWUb.99

Mack – I don’t see Beltran getting in the first year he is eligible, but I think he eventually will. He’s one of the key players that so far define the 21st Century. And, I think he’ll go in as a New York Met which is the primary reason I still think the Mets have a good chance of signing him this off season.

And please, don’t tell me he’s not worth wasting a third year of Wilpon’s money on.

 

Raymond Bureau -

“Very possible”: that is how MLB.com’s Pittsburgh Pirates beat writer Tom Singer describes the Pirates’ chances of landing Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton in a trade. Singer reports that the Pirates will most likely re-sign Marlon Byrd, a late-season trade acquisition from the New York Mets, so they would not have excess money left to sign higher-priced veterans. To acquire Stanton, then, the Pirates would likely have to offer right fielder Jose Tabata and some bullpen help as an attractive package. Although Stanton made only $537,000 in 2013, he is now eligible for arbitration for the first time and will command a huge raise.  http://sportsinjuryalert.com/pirates-rumors-trade-for-giancarlo-stanton-is-very-possible/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

                Mack – Boy, I really don’t like this article.

I’ve never thought that the Mets had the prospects to pull off a Stanton deal and, frankly, there’s a part of me that just doesn’t get all the glitter here. Sure his home runs go a long way… it’s just that he doesn’t hit enough of them to warrant all this hub bub.

Wilmer Flores or Cesar Puello isn’t Jose Tabata. The Pirates would be a good home for him and they have the stones to pay him what he’s worth.

And I especially don’t like the rest of the story either. Let’s hope Byrd and his agent give Alderson at least one shot at him.

 

Robert Murray -

With the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees likely to create a bidding war, the San Francisco Giants are “probably not” going to be big players for Masahiro Tanaka, according to Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area. Landing Tanaka is expected to take $100 million or more. Many big market teams are in on Tanaka and he is said to prefer signing with the Yankees or Dodgers. Other teams in on Tanaka are the Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, and Seattle Mariners. http://sportsinjuryalert.com/giants-rumors-san-francisco-unlikely-to-be-major-players-for-masahiro-tanaka/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Mack – We know that the Mets were not going to be primary bidders here, so I just want to keep you up on who will.be. Same progressive team names.

 

Chris McShane -

The Los Angeles Dodgers announced this evening that they have declined their 2014 options on Chris Capuano. The cutting ties with Capuano wasn't an entirely obvious move since Los Angeles could have kept him for $6 million in 2014. Capuano wasn't outstanding this year, but he posted a 4.26 ERA and 3.55 FIP in 105.2 innings with the Dodgers, the grand majority of which came as a starting pitcher. Last year, he posted a 3.72 ERA and 3.95 FIP in 33 starts for Los Angeles. The fact that Capuano is available is obviously relevant to the Mets, who have at least one vacancy in their starting rotation heading into the 2014 season. Capuano revived his career with the Mets in 2011 after missing the entire 2010 season and barely pitching in 2009 because of Tommy John surgery. He will turn 36 years old in August next year, but add one more name to the list of players the Mets might reasonably target in free agency this winter.

Mack – Capuano is no stranger to Flushing baseball and could be a viable one-year option until the likes of Harvey, Syndergaard, and Montero arrive.

Everyone say the Mets need two starting slots. I disagree. Wheeler, Gee, Mejia, and Niese represent the top four. Capuano could be a good SP5 alternative until Montero or Syndergaard arrive. And, they will arrive around the all-star break regardless what they do in the lack of atmosphere Vegas offers.

 

Ed Leyro

Bench?  The Mets need a well-balanced bench.  It can’t be full of .260 hitters with little power and no speed.  (The fact that Justin Turner has hit exactly .260 in his career with little power and no speed should be viewed as a coincidence.  It does not reflect my personal distaste for the pie-chucker.  Supposedly.)  The non-starters should be split evenly between left-handed and right-handed hitters, with at least one speedster that can be brought in to pinch-run, one power bat, one contact bat, one utility player and one late-inning defensive replacement.  If a player can combine two of those talents, the Mets will have a better chance to compete when they eventually play another 20-inning game.

                Mack – This is one of the most needed areas of improvement.

Personally, I’d keep Josh Satin. He’s a proven hitter that can fill in adequately at either first or second base.

My hopes are either Juan Legares or Eric Young Jr. are bench players, but two new stud outfielders might be asking too much.

                I’d also like to see a return of John Buck to back up the younger behind the plate.

Past that, we need more, better, defensive players that can help seal a game by being inserted into the late innings.

Keep the runs down with your starters, have quality relievers defensive gems for the 8th and 9th innings. You’ll win 10-15 more games.

18 comments:

TJ said...

Mack,
Great report today. I disagree with you about the need for two starters, but here is why - for the Mets to make a trade for the needed power bat or SS or both, without dealing Wheeler or Thor, they will need to part with Gee or Niese as part of the package. Murphy may need to be included as well. The reality is that these are the guys that other teaams will want, and you have to give to get. I am never for parting with pitching, but the Mets can simply replace a Gee or Niese with a signing. The signing will cost more financially, but there are enough guys out there that can pitch to the level of Gee or Niese. This type of trade plan will require signing two proven starters and then a DiceK/Harang type for depth and insurance should the MEjias and Monteros not be ready day 1.

Mack Ade said...

Thank you, T.J.

You could be right about the amount of starters, but I believe Wilpon when he says that Wheeler, Niese, and Gee are currently untouchable.

I also know that, due to past injuries, Mejia currently has no trade value.

That's 4 starters.

We'll just have to a agree to wait the off-season out and see what develops.

Kevin said...

Mack,

With the news that the Red Sox plan on extending a qualifying offer to Stephen Drew, what do you think that does to the market for Peralta. I gotta think that if teams view them equally, now Peralta has to look better since he doesn't have the draft pick compensation attached.

I hope the Mets jump on Peralta early and give him a 3/30+ deal. The offseason has begun.

Mack Ade said...

Kevin -

First Drew... the Red Sox LOVE Drew, but I do expect him to sniff around a little before deciding on signing a deal with Boston. He'll never have a greater multi-year value than right now.

Re: Peralta... Peralta's agent will manage his negotiations and no one wants to sign before they check out all their options.

That being said... everything I hear is that the Mets want to come out of the box with a deal in the next 7 days.

AV said...

I think the qualifying offer to Drew reduces the Mets choices to Peralta or a trade. I'd watch what the Cardinals do about trying to acquire Profar or Tulowitzki. They have a need at shortstop and have a better quality and quantity of prospects to offer than the Mets.

Also, I don't see the Mets giving up two draft picks (or, more importantly, the bonus pool money attached to those picks) by signing players that received qualifying offers. I think Sandy will go pretty hard after Shin-Soo Choo. I've said many times in many places that in addition to the baseball reasons to like Choo, don't overlook the Korean factor. I grew up in Flushing. The Mets do very little outreach within the community generally. Signing Choo can change that because you have a marquee Korean player playing within 30 minutes of the largest Korean population in the New York area. That's a lot of paying customers that are currently disengaged by the team but would make the short trip to watch Choo.

DaveWhitman said...

Anybody else getting the feeling that the Mets i.e. Jeff Wilpon and Sandy are no longer exactly on the same page. If that is the case, I would be concerned. This franchise is no position to deal with dissension or a power struggle up top.

Kevin said...

Agreed. You saw what the Matsui signing did for the Yankees. He'll, you still see Matsui jerseys in the stands. Choo could have that impact for the Mets. I just don't think he's a good enough player. I like him for the next 2-3 years, but he's going to require double that.

I think the Mets should jump in early and make Peralta an offer he can't refuse. $10+ per year. He's worth it.

If I'm going to lose a draft pick. I'd want to lose it on Granderson.

Sign Granderson & Peralta, while trading for Cuddyer or Fowler. Could be a very interesting team.

Mack Ade said...

good point about Korean population in Queens

Mack Ade said...

I don't think Wilpon has a page.

Kevin said...

He might not even have a book

DaveWhitman said...

I would agree on both counts. It's scary to think he will someday have sole ownership of the franchise.

Kevin said...

Maybe he'll fire the GM then and go Jerry Jones style

DaveWhitman said...

That's exactly what I believe he'll do, or hire a lackey who is GM in name only.

bill metsiac said...

Why is there no memtion of Lowrie anywhere? I'd think he'd be available at reasonable cost, and Sandy's Oakland connections couldn't hurt.

I'd target him first, before looking to the big FAs Peralta and Drew.

Michael S. said...

GET PEDERSON

Herb G said...

I'm with you, TJ, regarding the signing of starters. Despite Wilpon's inferrence that Gee is here to stay, I think he will be deemed expendable if an impact bat is dangled. I figure the rotation will require 2 additiona to Wheeler, Niese and Mejia.

One should be an experienced mid-rotation starter who will eat up innings for us. Someone we can siign to a 1 or 2 year deal for about $8-9 million per. My first choice would be Tim Hudson (I don't think he is going back to the Braves) followed by Scott Kazmir and Josh Johnson.

Mack - your suggestion of Santana is intriguing. You know I wrote a piece on just that subject on the anniversary of his no-no, suggesting that he owed the Mets a year. I wouldn't expect him to sign a minor league deal, though. I think he has too much pride. But a low base (say $3.5 million) with significant incentives (that could bring it up to $13.5 million with 220 innings pitched) might be acceptable to him. But I would still sign Matsuzaka and/or Harang for dept and security. See which of the two or three wins it in ST.

My opening day rotation would therefore be Wheeler, Niese, Hudson, Mejia and Dice-K/Santana.

Herb G said...

I have a feeling that Drew accepts the QO from Boston. That increases Peralta's bargaining power, but the PED connection should still hold down his eventual salary. IMO, Sandy will explore the trade market far and wide before he gets into the bidding for Peralta. There are just so many SS possibilities out there.

Starting with Tulo, who I think we would all salivate at the thought of but who I think we have very little chance of getting, there is Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie, Aybar, Hardy, Andrus, (I don't think Texas would trade Profar) Castro, and maybe Baez. There is a fair chance the Mets could trade for one of them, because I don't think Alderson would ante up 3/$30 or more for Jhonny.

Herb G said...

Mack - you bring up the bench as an area that needs a major overhaul, and you are right on target. We seem to have precious little in-house to man the bench in 2014. Satin is a good start, and den Dekker could be an outfield option if he has a good spring. Bringing Buck back would help too. But where do we go from there?

I have a feeling that Sandy will wait for non-tenders before he commits to bench players. I do have a few current free agents in mind who could contribute as bench players. I'd grab David Murphy if I could, or David DeJesus if his option is declined, as an extra outfielder. I'd also take a flyer on Rafael Furcal, coming off injury, but if his meds check out he's worth a shot.

So how is this for a bench: Satin (RH) den Dekker (LH) Murphy (LH) Furcal (SW) and Buck (RH)