Morning Report – May 7th – Zack Thornton, Win Probability, Trae Turner, St. Lucie

        Coming Later Today –

                10 am –  Reese Kaplan - Be Thankful For Small Victories

                12 noon – 9 Baseball - Top 100 Mock

                 3 pm –  Top 10 3B in 2014 MLB Draft - - Updated 5-2-14  

                 6 pm - Kyle Schwarber, Dylan Cease, Chris Diaz, Jackson Soto, Trent Gilbert

We’re going to be updating the top 10 by position rankings for the draft posts more each day up to the draft. I’ve got new information hitting my computer every day and I want to give you the latest up to the minute rankings.

RP Zack Thornton was the ‘other guy’ the Mets traded for Ike Davis. The ‘other other guy’ in the deal with this guy will be identified in June, which makes experts say that he will either be someone that was picked in the 2013 draft, or he hasn’t been released from prison yet. Meanwhile, the world continues to recognize Thornton as a real pitcher (Baseball America wrote a story about him yesterday that I couldn’t read because I won’t put out the bucks needed to join their site 

(http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/thornton-on-the-move-again/) 

even though the Mets think he’s only good enough for minor league pitching.

Look, there is nothing flashy about Thornton, but he does have a history of getting batters out.

Dr. Strangelove, a major Pirates blog wrote at the end of the 2013 season:

If you had Thornton’s numbers shoved under your nose blindly, you would probably swear that he was a top prospect, a closer in waiting. A guy with these strikeout-to-walk ratios in the minor leagues either has great stuff, a trick pitch, or a crazy delivery, but Thornton has none of the above – he throws his fastball at only 89-90, and has a decent slider and a good changeup. His delivery is a bit deceptive, in that he throws across his body from a three-quarters arm slot, but it really does not explain the results he is getting. Scouts continue to be unimpressed, as witnessed by his failure to be gobbled up in the Rule 5 draft, despite following up his most recent campaign with 14.2 solid innings in the AFL, in which he posted a K/9 of 8.59 and an ERA of 3.07.

There is a mess going on down in the Mets pen right now and Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins has to make at least  one move just to appease the fan base.

I can’t think of a better choice that they guy you just traded your first baseman for.

So, how are your Mets doing?

Well, according to Chris Weledin, at tpgMets 

(http://tpgmets.blogspot.com/), the Mets have won 1 game this year in which their average win probability was less than 50%.. The bad news is the fact that the same Mets have lost 5 games this year in which their average win probability was greater than 50%. So, take the win loss record on the Mets, add four wins, take off four loses, and compare that to the rest of the division (oh yeah, don’t forget to add and subtract one game for the Marlins also). The results will possibly turn your stomach.

I still believe that the Mets have been ‘in’ far more games than they thought they would be in this season (thanks to their rotation and defense) and the sad part is what has just happened in Colorado and Miami are opportunities for wins that just may not come back around this season.

You have no control on how many pitches your starters are going to throw, so you go into every game praying for, at least, six innings out of them. Seven would be heaven. Eight? Now, you’re pushing it.

The Mets starters aren’t the problem. They rank in the top 5 in innings pitched per outing this season. We keep working our way back to the bullpen. Make some changes and then make some more and then make some more until the results are better.

Jonathan Mayo on Trae Turner –

Turner won Louisville Slugger National Player of the Week and ACC Player of the Week honors thanks to his weekend performance in a sweep of Coastal Carolina. The Wolfpack's leadoff hitter wreaked havoc in all three games, going a combined 9-for-11 with 11 runs scored, three RBIs and six stolen bases. Turner's performance on Saturday was a sight to behold, as he went 4-for-4 and finished a triple shy of the cycle. He scored three runs and stole four bases.

The explosion raised Turner's season line to .330/.424/.523 in 45 games. After a slow start on the base paths, he's used his plus speed to go 21-for-23 in stolen-base attempts. In other words, Turner is looking more like the player some thought was a certain top 10 pick before the year began.

Mack – I would love this guy in a Mets uniform, but I make one warning. Dripping wet he’s 170. You will get no power here. Just a .375 OBP and tremendous defense, ready for a 2016 opening day start.

One of the reasons I love minor league baseball is that sometimes you find a manager willing to move their players around to other positions to see if they can handle it. This is the case of manager Ryan Ellis for the St. Lucie Mets.

        On Tuesday, he played 2B Dilson Herrera (.299) at SS… 1B Jairo Perez (.404) at 3B… 3B Aderlin Rodriquez (.242) at 1B… and SS Phillip Evans (.280) at 2B.

        This is a perfect level to mix it up and see if a player’s natural talent offers their organization a solution to their problems. I mean, what if Herrera could actually work out at short? He could be ready in less than two years.

        I simply love what Ellis does.

          Jenrry Mejia –

        First time around lineup:  .152, .442-OPS

        

         Second time around - .239, .765-OPS

        Third time around - .438, 1.183-OPS