Mack’s Morning Report – 6-20-15 - Q and A

Good morning.

Jason asked –

          Mack, I look over this 25-man roster and, frankly, I just don’t see a slot for any new full time bat this season. Do you agree?

Mack –

          You have an interesting point, Jason.

          The Mets are committed to 1B Lucas Duda, SS Wilmer Flores, C Travis d’Arnaud, and CF Juan Lagares long term.

          The Mets also have long term contract commitments to LF Michael Cuddyer and RF Curtis Granderson.

          Lastly, Dilson Herrera is your future second baseman, Daniel Murphy is the best bat you have and will play third until your Captain, David Wright comes back.

          I see what you mean.

          Frankly, I expect the next move the Mets do is activate Murphy. Past that, the only move could be dipping in to a rental power bat to add to the mix.

Conrad asks -

Mack, a few days ago my alter ego posted a comment hypothesizing a Wilmer/Dilson duo continuing to be steady, clutch & sporadically spectacular and a Murphy picking up where we saw him in the last episode… and Wright returns.  WWJD?

You commented: “Like all teams, the stars go first.

 Both Wright and Murphy will slot back in at 3B and 2B.”

My left brain tends to agree.  My right, however, has something else in mind.  Would like your take, perhaps as one of your Q/A columns.

 Play David in RF (LF if you must—David might be more comfortable on his normal side of the diamond—but I prefer his arm to Grandy or Cuddyer’s in RF).  He plays 8/10 games.

 Yeah, I know, that’s a pricey platoon in LF, but the economics in $$/RC might pay-off.  Cuddy plays 6/10, 3B(1), 1B(1) & LF(4), likewise Grandy 6/10 in LF.

 Ceciliani is a late inning def replacement & starts 3/10: CF(1), RF(2)

 Tejada also starts 2-3/10;  SS(1-2), 2B(1-2)

 Flores & Herrera play 17/20, Murph, Duda & Lagares play 9/10.

 I like Johnny M. as LHB back-up C, but that’s just me.

The net difference between left & right-brain squads for August & September is one has Dilson in AAA the other has DFA’d Mayberry.

Mack – Thank you for the question Hobie… I think

I think I can answer all this with one simple answer. In my humble opinion, there is no way the Mets are going to introduce a new position to David Wright in the middle of a season he’s trying to cope with a genetic decease that is, at best, going to hinder his ability to give it 100%.

Daniel Murphy comes off the DL on Tuesday and will slot in at third base. Herrera will remain at second and Tejada will back the both of them up. Past that, the only role left to fill on this team (other than Steven Matz and one more quality relief pitcher) is a quality bat off the bench for pinch hitting and DH roles against the remaining games against American League teams.

No one in the Mets organization is going to tell you this at this point, but this just might be the best you’re getting this year from Wright.

Needless to say, Matz will come up and the offense will continue to be more singles and gap related. Wright will have to have a lengthy rehab in Florida, first with St. Lucie, but don’t expect any experimentation at this point in his questionable future.


John asked - 

Mack, do we have anyone in the system, past Steven Matz, that looks like a sure bet for a rotation pitcher?

Mack - Thanks for the question, John.

Before we answer that, let's remember that Matt Harvey is scheduled to become a free agent in 2019, Zack Wheeler in 2020, and Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, and Rafael Montero are scheduled past that. 

Barring multiple injuries, the team seems set through the rest of this decade.

Past that, things are in 'developmental' stages. No one screams off the pages right now, but there are some pitchers showing signs of life... guys like Michael Fulmer and Robert Gsselman in Binghamton. Rob Whalen in St. Lucie. And Casey Meisner in Savannah. 

My guess is Meisner will develop into a front line starter for somebody someday.

MiLB

beelzebot to me -

Hey Mack,

It's impressive what Beccera is doing as a 20 year old, but I think it is more impressive that he is doing it in Savannah.  That place has an awful reputation for hitters over the years.

People are starting to buzz about Lagares surgery, just as he is starting to hit.  To me it seemed like he was finally feeling better, watching him it seemed like that.  Maybe he's not, who knows.  Watching him in April and now, there is definitely a difference.  People love to talk and speculate without ever really knowing how much pain a player is in or is not in, without being his best buddy or wife you'll probably never really know.

I'm a computer science guy so baseball stats always attract me.  But, I think one thing nerds consistently miss out on is a human element.  I see a lot of people saying to trade Colon for whatever they can get.  Sure, always go after the best piece you can, I'm 100% on board with that.  I watch a lot of games and Colon is always in the dugout talking.  There are things stats cannot measure, so if you are not getting anything worthwhile in return, I do not believe in making moves just for the sake of making a move.  My point is sometimes nerds want to move players without considering what that player may be teaching or doing in the clubhouse that you do not see on the field.  There are young guys in the rotation, maybe they need someone like Colon to be around as a mentor.  

As always, feel better!  And keep writing!

Mack - Hey Beelze...

As you know, I live 30 miles from Grayson Stadium and covered it as a sports reporter since 2011.

The average Mets fan have heard what a graveyard it is, but you have no idea how this year's heat has even made it worse. We have been under a heat advisory from 11am-7pm for 12 straight days and it is expected this will continue for, at least, two more weeks.

Through all this, the Mets still make these kids hit the field by 2pm and go through a full routine of practice, running cones, etc. Through all this, Beccera has only improved his game. You have to take this guy serious as a possibe corner outfieler in 2018.

I know Juan Lagares. No one wants to play this game more than he does, but no longer can turn his back to this injury. He, and the Mets, are going to have to deal with it. 

My guess he will remain in the lineup as long as the team is in a pennant race.

Past that, it's under a knife with a projected return of around June 2016.

As for Colon, he gives up a lot of runs, but he wins more games than he loses. Is that because the team plays better with him on the mound? I don't know, but I don't think there's much of a market out there for him. I see him finishing this season as the 5th starter and, if the team makes the playoff, he will go to the bullpen as the long man.

MiLB

Michael Scannell asks - 

1 - Michael Fulmer seems to be back on track.  With no room in the rotation and with scouting reports saying he'd be best suited for a relief role, if he has a future in NY it will likely be in the pen.  Does he profile as a middle reliever or can he become a late inning power arm?

2 - Hypothetically (this gets a little crazy, I know), if the Marlins are going to blow it up and they make Stanton available would you make the following deal for him in the offseason?:

NYM: Stanton, filler
MIA: Flores, Plawecki, Herrera, Smith, Becerra, Montero, lower level pitching  prospect (high boom/bust)

?

The initial reaction is that the Marlins would want a top pitcher for him but I would approach it from this angle instead.  They already have some young high ceiling pitching and can trade Yelich to add pitching.  What they can't do is deal anyone besides Stanton to bring in a haul like this to fill 5 out of their 8 positional spots as well as arm talent in Montero and the unnamed pitcher.  They get:

- Flores - potential 30 HR/90RBI SS or 3B
- Plawecki - top catching prospect
- Herrera - potential AS 2B
- Smith - potential AS 1B
- Becerra - potential power corner OF
- Montero - starter or reliever
- Pitching lottery ticket

Harvey and deGrom are going nowhere.  Wheeler is too much of an unknown with his TJS.  That leaves Thor and Matz.  They'll ask for one or both.  This would be my counter.  We're not giving either up but we'll give you a starting lineup.

This is a quantity vs quality decision because all the players the Mets would be giving up are quality pieces...they're just not ace pitchers.  With Cosart, Fernandez, and the younger arms on the way, the Marlins don't 'have' to get a pitcher from a Stanton deal.

The Mets would be taking a hit here as all the players dealt have high upside.  But, we're going to need a new franchise face and we can fill in what we need to.  You could see a lineup from 2-6 that features:

SS - Cecchini
LF - Conforto
RF - Stanton
1B - Duda
Ca - d'Arnaud

If need be, Murphy can stay, hit 7th and play 3B.  At that point, it wouldn't hurt to have LJ Maz play 2B and hit 8th as the rest of the lineup would be so dangerous.  Hell, Tejada could go back to 2B if he's the 8th hitter and we'd be fine.

Mack - Hey Michael... 

Fuller will come of age during a period in which the Mets really won't need a starter. I think he's still far from either being projected as a star or as a major chip in a trade, because of his injury history so far.

That being said, you asked the question... I see no problem with the trade you proposed for Stanton. I get to keep my top pitchers and I wouldn't lose either Nimmo or Conforto as prospects.

I think Miami might not be a seller this year. No one is eating up this division and their young pitching could make them a contender after the all-star break.

My Stanton will end his career in Miami.