Mack’s Morning News – 2-8-16 – Desmond Lindsay, Jeurys Familia, Lucas Duda, Zack Wheeler

Good morning.

Jacob Resnick on Desmond Lindsay

The Mets used their top draft pick on Lindsay a year ago, making him the fourth high school bat selected by Sandy Alderson
with his highest selection. Coming out of school, Desmond Lindsay was a third baseman with a quick bat and speed to match. He moved to center field upon entering the organization, where his quickness allowed him to navigate the outfield. Although he hit over .300 in the Gulf Coast League, Lindsay struck out 35% of the time across two levels, didn’t show much power, but that should come as he progresses. Most scouts believe he has five-tool potential, and should at the very least develop into a well rounded threat at the top of the order.

Mack – Striking out 35% of the time isn’t going to get you anywhere in this game and this is the one stat that Lindsay has to immediately work on.
I never had Lindsay in my top 200 prospect list when the Mets drafted him. 

The Mets seem to be wanting to surprise us more when they pick their first round pick rather than go with the status quo and choose the guy that all the pundits say are ‘can’t miss’.

The new approach by the Mets to actually spend money does eliminate a fair amount of pressure on the prospect system, but I do agree with Ernest Dove that the more kids that work out could create a situation that the Mets can spend future money on contract extensions to one or more of their star starting pitchers.

Let’s face it… the combined salary of David Wright, Yoenes Cespedes, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom does have the potentional to excel $100mil on their own.

 Glenn Brewer on Jeurys Familia

          FanGraphs’ projection system has Familia pegged to pitch 65 innings with 34 saves and a 3.16 ERA. While I moderate drop-off from Familia’s stellar 2015 should arguably be expected, I believe this to be too steep. In my non-scientific projection, I think Familia will save between 36 and 38 games while posting an ERA of 3.01. And although his workload should be lower this season, Familia will reach the 70 innings mark again.

All in all, Familia will take a small step back in 2016, but will continue to cement his role as closer while helping to lead the Mets to another successful campaign.

Mack – I don’t understand how blog-pundits can definitively state that someone is going to regress. You can say you think they will, but, anything other than that is unfounded.


I happen to ‘think’ that Familia will punch out better stats. The Mets lineup should consistently produce more runs… the top rotation in the league should create the most leads into the late innings… and the combination of Antonio Bastardo and Addison Reed should take additional pressure off Familia.

My guess there will be less one-run save situations for Familia to participate in.

Rob Rogan on Lucas Duda

There’s one player that no one seems to be talking about much: Lucas Duda. It’s not surprising. At 6’4” but as reserved as any ballplayer out there, Duda is hard to miss. Still, he seems to find himself faded into the background noise more often than not. Unless he’s going on one of his tears at the plate, of course. What people should be talking about, however, is how he’s quietly put his head down and become one of the best hitters in baseball and a top ten first baseman since officially taking over the duty at the start of the 2014 season.

During those two years, Duda has averaged a wRC+ of 135, 17th best in the majors. If we consider only first basemen, he shoots up to number eight. If we consider his 6.4 total fWAR over those two seasons, his performance is slightly less remarkable. He’s a scratch defender at first, essentially, and provides no value on the base paths. He basically provides all of his value with his bat. That’s still pretty impressive, considering that 6.4 fWAR still puts him at number 10 for first basement through 2014-2015.
Mack – You all know my opinion on Duda. My only criticism has always been his hot/cold approach to the game.

Let me ask you a question…

What if Duda eliminated his cold streaks, hit consistently in the .275+ range, and still hit 30+ home runs…

Would you still give this job over to Dominic Smith?

Lynn Worthy on Zack Wheeler -

Wheeler struck out 25 percent of the batters he faced in the Eastern League, best of any starting pitcher that season. He ranked fourth in the league in walks plus hits per inning pitched (1.16) and batting average against (.225). He gave up just two home runs and issued 43 walks in 116 innings in 19 starts (one complete game).

An Eastern League All-Star and MLB All-Star Futures selection, Wheeler went 10-6 in his 19 starts. At the time of his promotion to Triple-A, the B-Mets had 53 wins.

Wheeler lit up the ballpark whenever he took the mound. By the middle of the 2012 season, the chatter among scouts on their trips to NYSEG Stadium was that Wheeler was far too good to be at Double-A.

          Mack – I remember this year vividly. I spoke to many of my scout contacts that year and they all projected Wheeler ahead of Matt Harvey. Both have had Tommy John Surgery so both have an equal chance of excelling. What we have to do now is have some patience regarding Wheeler, let him spend the rest of 2016 getting his arm strong, and hopefully, putting it all together in 2017.


Hobie said...

Re. Familia
"Regression to the mean" is a sound projection when there is a large sample size. Familia has one CL season under his belt, there is no way to determine what side of the bell curve he is on.

And a "non-scientific projection of 3.01? Not 3.00 or 3.02?
My non-scientific projection of the National Debt on July 1 is $18,671,422,954,361.68

Thomas Brennan said...

Dominic Smith might be a tad slow, but I would put him in right field if Duda excels and stays. Duda needs to stop taking first pitch meatballs and he'll get to your numbers, Mack.

Wheeler will be wheely good when he weturns, according to Super Scout Elmer Fudd.

Familia perfected his craft last year, but he'll regress? Not so.

Super Bowl nonsense is past, time for a real sport to take center stage- BASEBALL.

Ernest Dove said...

My master plan is for an infield of smith, herrera, and Rosario allowing for Mets to have money to pay 3 aces to extensions.
And perhaps a 4th can be squeezed in to time with Wright contract ending IF the outfield is solid and productive.
My master plan only works if guys like conforto/TDA/Smith can be middle of the order bats.
If not then Mets IMO need to sacrifice aces to buy or trade for a middle of the order cespedes type bat again in the near future.

Mack Ade said...

Hobie - Tom - Ernest -

Good comments

bob gregory said...

If Duda were to be consistent, then it would be very difficult to move him out of the way for anybody.

Smith would have to wait his turn.

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

Finally a word of logic here.

bob gregory said...

In my opinion one personnel goal for Alderson to focus on this year should be identifying where the next leadoff hitter is coming from.

Is it in house?
In the minors?
Can/should Granderson be relied upon to fill the role again next year (2017)?

Are there going to be free agent alternatives that play what will be open positions the Mets will have around the field?

Thomas Brennan said...

Maybe Conforto. Lacks the speed but maybe in 2017, he'll be.310/.400/.550

Thomas Brennan said...

Maybe Conforto. Lacks the speed but maybe in 2017, he'll be.310/.400/.550

Anonymous said...

Easy to understand the frustration with Duda's inconsistency, but he wouldn't be the first player to trade sideways for the first few years of his career before figuring it all out. not saying he will, but he has some raw skills (power and OBP) that if properly harnessed could make him a monster bat and difference maker in a lineup
Anon Joe F

Thomas Brennan said...

Joe F:
What will Duda do with Cespedes in the line up for a full year? Intriguing.

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