This week former
Mets wunderkind Doc Gooden proclaimed the pitching staff the 2016
team has the stuff on which dynasties are built. That lofty praise
is accepted as common wisdom by most fans and the results the team
has seen from Messrs. Harvey, de Grom, Syndergaard, Matz and Wheeler
are certainly enviable. However, what about the lineup the team will
provide to match these golden arms? Will they be able to put up
enough offense to give the Mets a chance to win on a nightly basis?
The biggest and
most surprising acquisition of this off-season was the eleventh hour
contract signed by Yoenis Cespedes. His market never developed as
his agents had hoped and he opted to take a variation of what's come
to be known as a pillow contract – a one year deal designed to
allow him to reestablish his value as one of the game's top sluggers.
In other players' cases, these contracts are low cost one year
deals designed to let a player prove his worth after either an
off-year or an injury-lost year in order to cash in with a longer
term deal the following season.
What differs here
are two aspects. First, the one year deal is monstrous – the
largest in team history. Although some of it is structured as
signing bonus and some as salary, the net result is a $27.5 million
payday for Cespedes to help try to let the Mets go for it all in
2016. Second, the deal is for three years with a player opt-out.
It's a little puzzling in that the risk is really more on the Mets
than it is on Cespedes. If he produces as everyone hopes, then he
could very well test the market once again. However, if he either
doesn't produce or decides he really likes it here, then the Mets are
on the hook for two more years of $23.5 million per season. I'm
betting he never tests the waters as he found this year that the AAV
of contracts exceeding $23.5 million are not exactly cluttering up
agents' desks. I'd pencil him in for 2017 and 2018 as well.
The next highest
valued player is the former face of the franchise, David Wright.
While everyone holds their collective breath wondering what his
spinal stenosis means for his playing future, the fact remains that
the Mets are on the hook for $20 million, $20 million, $15 million
and $12 million that makes him a very well paid player through the
end of the 2020 season.
The next player
earning big bucks is Curtis Granderson. His first year in the blue
and orange was not what they'd hoped for him when they gave him the
$64 million contract. Last year he earned his paycheck and also
somewhat surprisingly thrived in the role of leadoff hitter given his
paltry stolen base numbers and high strikeout totals. Oddly, a solid
2016 might put him squarely on the trading block in 2017 as he might
be appealing to another club needing a one-year answer in their
lineup.
Newly acquired
Neil Walker is as good as gone for 2017. He's already earning more
than Daniel Murphy ever did and even with a great contract year
season the fact remains the Mets have inexpensive options for next
year. There's Dilson Herrera, Wilmer Flores, Gavin Cecchini (with
Asdrubal Cabrera shifting to second...it doesn't seem like anything
Walker could do would keep him in Queens. In fact, if Herrera is
tearing it up in AAA I wouldn't be surprised to see Walker peddled in
July.
Asdrubal Cabrera
seemed to be something of a panic move in that he's not exactly Ozzie
Smith with the glove and his offense was a tick below what Wilmer
Flores provided last year. Still, with the overall weak
up-the-middle defense any step in the right direction to correct it
is probably welcome. He's not getting overpaid and he could shift to
the other side of the infield if Cecchini can build on his stellar
season in 2015 with a full season in Las Vegas.
Next on the
payroll pecking order is big Bartolo Colon. He's also gone at year's
end (if not sooner) as Zack Wheeler assumes his role as starting
pitcher in his place in July.
This season is
pivotal for Lucas Duda who's earning a modest $6.725 this year, but
another 25-30 HR season could net him close to $10 million in 2017.
Again, the money to pay the pitchers has to come from somewhere and
they may well decide he's potentially going to cost more than he
produces. Still, with a team somewhat bereft of sluggers it may not
be prudent to pull the trigger in favor of the unproven (and thus far
not power-hitting) Dominic Smith.
Alejandro De Aza
is overpaid to sit on the bench at $5.75 million, but I've come to
terms with it thinking about what Juan Uribe earned last year in a
similar role Uribe got 397 ABs which were probably expected for De
Aza at the time he was signed but delivered 14/43/.253 while being
paid $6.5 million. De Aza would likely deliver that or better if
given the same number of Abs. Unfortunately for the Mets the
premature signing at this price point was rendered somewhat
superfluous with the reacquisition of Cespedes. It's all water under
the bridge and it's likely De Aza won't last the year in a Mets
uniform anyway.
I've probably
been more critical of Ruben Tejada than anyone, but the $3 million
he's earning this year isn't going to bankrupt the team. In a way,
it's money more well spent for his defined role than the nearly
double that allocated to De Aza. Still, you have to wonder if a
minimum wage guy like Matt Reynolds could achieve the same .255
average with no speed and no power that Tejada provides in hopefully
very limited playing time behind Cabrera. I can't see him having a
future with the team with Gavin Cecchini at minimum wage knocking on
the door.
Just as it's a
pivotal year for Duda, it's also a critical one for Juan Lagares.
He's set to earn $4.5 million in 2017, $6.5 million in 2018, and $9
million in 2019 with a 2020 option for $9.5 million with a $500K.
The money is modest for a Gold Glove caliber outfielder but excessive
for a 4th outfielder. Success on the field could lead
them to keep him and trade the more expensive Granderson. Or another
way to go is keep the starting outfield intact for one more year and
trade Lagares. Finally, at $4.5 million for 2017, that's still less
than they're paying De Aza for this year, so they could just keep
him.
While none of the
rest of the offensive players will earn significant money in 2016,
there are still things to consider. For example, would moving Travis
d'Arnaud to another position make sense? What about shifting David
Wright across the diamond where he might not have to be as mobile as
3B would require him to be? Those decisions could impact Lucas
Duda's future with the team as well.
3 comments:
Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Jacob deGrom are the first three players the Mets have to NOW consider to begin negotiations to extend their contracts for (my guess) three years past their arbitration commitment.
I don't consider Harvey a loss yet. And the money is there if you combine Colon, Walker, and Cabrera... but signing all three of these guys, followed by Syndergaard could be close to impossible
just if youre thinking dollar for dollar. next year harvey will make what colon is making, but colon wont be here and wheeler will make less then what harvey is making, and everyone else is pre-arb in the pitching staff. so about a net plus 2 right there.
I actualy expect the payroll to go down after 2016 considering they wont have a 7 mm 2b man even if they ahve a 10 mm first baseman. the year after is the woah year. but that is 2018 and ganderson's 16 mm will be gone, so will cespedes or he'll be in rf and maybe even duda.
they did a pretty good job of planning
Robb -
Anyway you look at it, Harvey is the first deal to make.
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