Mack Ade – What If? (son of Whaddya think?


Good morning.

I was thinking about this so I thought I’d create a post on this subject and ask all of you for your opinion on the subject.

We all know how this team has been decimated over the last few years with injuries, and yet, we still got to the playoffs the past two seasons. It’s impossible to imagine how have we would have gone the last two years if we had a healthy third baseman plus the dream team rotation.

That being said, let’s look at some scenarios and I want to ask you want you think this team should do if injuries set in again.

1.     The outfield – right now, it looks like that even the teams in Korea want nothing to do with Jay Bruce. Amazing. The guy comes to town leading the league in runs batted in. He also runs faster than Brandon Nimmo. Now, he’s radioactive. So, it looks like the Mets will go to camp with these two guys, Juan Lagares, Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, and Juan Lagares fighting it out for five outfield slots in the opening day clubhouse… Question:  Who is the odd man out and will be shipped out to Las Vegas for the opening day there? And the second part of the question… it’s obvious that the ‘odd man out’ in the first part of this question would be the first outfielder called up if there was an injury to one of these guys already in Queens… but what if a second outfielder goes down? What do we do then?

2.     Third Base – It’s just a matter of time, right? We’re going to be looking for a new third baseman to either fill in for the days lost while David Wright rests, or the rest of the season after Wright goes down for maybe the last time. So the question becomes…who’s the next Mets third baseman? Wilmer Flores? T.J.? Jose Reyes? Or, do you move Neil Walker over from second and put either Flores or Rivera there?

3.     Starters – We all know the initial plan… because three starters are coming to camp coming off surgery, the team will most probably start the season with a 6-man rotation. This will consist six of the following seven pitchers: Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, and Zack Wheeler. Who starts the season off in Vegas? And what happens if two starters aren’t ready. Who’s next up? Gabriel Ynoa? Sean Gilmartin? Tyler Pill? Or a longshot like P.J. Conlon?

4.     Pen – We know the team is a long way away from firming up their opening day pen. Jeurys Familia will probably be in anger management classes… Addison Reed and Hansel Robles seems to be locked in… and Josh Edgin and Josh Smoker probably have the best odds to make it… but then what? Conlon (Adam Rubin is reporting that the Mets are considering using the lefty Conlon out of the opening day pen)? Kevin McGowan? Rafael Montero? Paul Sewald? Adam Wilk (who the heck is Adam Wilk)?

5.     First Base – We know we’re going to have to live with Lucas Duda’s highs and lows during the season, but what if his back acts up again and he goes on the disabled list for the remainder of the season again. What do we do then? Do we fill in with T.J. Rivera, try to find another James Loney for a buck, or rush Dominic Smith up the pipeline?

6.     Shortstop – What if Astrubel Cabrera goes down? Do you play either Rivera or Reyes here or is time to turn this position over to Amed Rosario?


Robb said...

1. I still think they trade jay bruce in spring training or when someoen loses a left fielder, but as it stands I think both conforto and Nimmo go to vegas and the 5th outfielder is one of the journeyman types. Its better for nimmo and conforto to play everyday and slow their arb clocks if then sit on the bench.

2. It starts with flores/reyes, then post july if all is going right, it would be cabrera with Rosario playing short. Dont be surprised if wright gets injured again this season that the mets pick up cabrera's option even if rosario is going to be the stating shortstop so he can back up third. fyi im hoping if wright has to retire that 2019 its manny muchado at 3rd base.

5. flores to start if its august probably dominic smith.

6. reyes then rosario

Mack Ade said...

Robb -

I go back and forth on the Bruce thing. In my heart I know that Alderson is still trying to ship him out.

I see your logic on playing both Nimmo and Conforto in AAA, but I sure would rather see Conforto in left field in Queens, Cespedes in right, and a healthy Lagares in center.

Ty Kelly could be a utility option

Zozo said...

1- I agree with Robb 100%. Start both Conforto and Nimmo in Vegas and get us a right handed bat that can play all 3 OF positions. I would of like Ruggiano again but that option is off the table.

2. I feel Reyes will be a more than capable 3rd base option if Wright goes down.

3. I would pick up another low cost starter/ minor league option type veteran pitcher to eat up some innings as well.

4. Sign Blevins and Joe Smith

5. Duda (fingers crossed) will be ok, but Flores will be a capable backup for anytime he misses.

6. I think we have capable backups at short to fill in for short spurts of injury bug to Cabrera (Reyes, TJ, and Cecchini), but if he sustains something season ending call up Rosario.

Zozo said...

Also would sign Kelly Johnson and try and get a Bronson Aroyo type on the cheap

Anonymous said...

Morning Mack!

1. There are worse things then having Jay Bruce in RF to start the year (put the kids in Vegas for now). I think JB stays put for now, but Sandy will look to move him after ST when the market settles down and needs become more apparent.

2. DW will get one last shot to play and I don't see it going well. My threshold for him would be around 100 games, but the requires roughly four appearances a week (without a DH) and I don't see his body holding up. I think he plays his last game in 2017, but moves into a front office position, like A-Rod did with the Yankees.

3. Starters are set 1-4 (NS, JD, MH and SM) and I would put RG in the fifth slot, since he earned it with his pitching down the stretch. Wheeler starts in the bullpen and Lugo goes to Vegas for now. If ZW can handle the workload, then he is the 6th starter designed to give the rest of the guys a break throughout the year.

4. The bullpen will be fine.......Sandy is notorious for finding low cost guys to fill in the gaps. Reed closes until Familia is back from his "vacation". I also think Blevins is back once they figure out his contract.

5. Duda is the starter, Flores is the backup and Dominic Smith will take over in 2018.

6. Cabrera is the starter, Reyes is the backup and Rosario will take over sometime in 2018 or 2019.

Mets win 95+ games if they stay healthy.


bob gregory said...

3rd base replacement = Flores
SS replacement = Reyes (naturally)
Walker replacement = Rivera
Duda replacement = Bruce

As far as Cespedes In Rightfield?
Give up on that.
As it stands Cespedes is arguably the best (BEST) left fielder playing in the majors.
Why is it so bad to have the best at a position continue to play their best position?

If you are not happy with the arm of Rightfield options......Then trade them away and get a rightfielder that better suits your wants.

Reese Kaplan said...

1. OF -- I'm on board with sending both Conforto and Nimmo to AAA to play every day and not cause a distraction the first time Granderson or Bruce go into a prolonged slump. For some reason they seem enamored of Ty Kelly, and his versatility would fit the Mets' typical thinking. I'd sooner see them sign a speedster as the 5th outfielder so he could also be used as a pinch runner as I foresee a lot of starting time for Jose Reyes which means he's not available for that duty.

2. 3B -- That's Jose Reyes simply because it would take original thought on the part of the manager to consider anyone else. He played last year and didn't embarrass himself so he is first on the backup depth chart.

3. Starters -- I'm on record saying it will be Syndergaard, de Grom, Harvey, Matz and Gsellman, with Zack Wheeler in the bullpen. Gabriel Ynoa and Rafael Montero will have nearly no shot of being on the big club. Sean Gilmartin is not far behind. I think they will stretch him out as a starter once again just in case of injuries. Ditto Seth Lugo.

4. Pen -- Familia, Reed, Robles, Smoker, Edgin, Goeddel, Wheeler. Assuming Familia is suspended for 30 games, then I'd expect to see Lugo starting the year in the major league pen unless the rumors about signing Blevins have some truth to them.

5. 1B -- After Lucas Duda comes Wilmer Flores to allow both to crush the pitching against which they do best. They really don't have options beyond that with Bruce having just 3 games at the position and Kevin Plawecki slated for AAA.

6. SS -- Jose Reyes. He's no longer the flashy fielder he once was but he's certainly serviceable. That would render 3B available to (in order) Wilmer Flores or T.J. Rivera should they lose Wright and Cabrera at the same time.

Thomas Brennan said...

Lots of responses, lots of interesting thoughts. Been sick this weekend, so weighing in any more than that I lack the energy for.

Thomas Brennan said...

Lots of responses, lots of interesting thoughts. Been sick this weekend, so weighing in any more than that I lack the energy for.

Adam Smith said...

1. I agree with Reese here, If you're going to be starting Bruce in RF, the move is to send both Conforto and Nimmo down. If I were a pitcher in the PCL, by the way, i wouldn't want to face the 51's early on. That lineup is going to be scary. Ty Kelly is probably what they'll do for the 5th guy.

2. Reyes, no doubt, assuming that DW is the only one out. If for no other reason than that's what they did last year with the same cast of characters (minus TJ mostly, who they won't regularly play over Reyes.).

3. This is interesting because you don't know what Wheeler will look like after two years off. They could easily decide that they want him to rack up 40-50 innings against minor league comp, while stretching out his arm before bringing him north. I actually think this is more likely that putting him in the bullpen in Queens in April, where they won't be able to strictly control when they'll need or use him, and there'll be lots of very cold weather. So my best guess is Thor, deGrom, Harvey, Matz and Gsellman out of the gate, with Lugo as the long man in the BP, with either he or Wheeler in line for the first spot start, depending on when that comes.

4. I have a feeling they sign one guy (Blevins, probably) and a feeling that a few guys, including Conlon and
Sewald will get a shot in ST.

5. I think they're expecting a strong year from Duda, and I agree. He could get hurt, yes, but if his back is healthy he gets 500 AB's with Flores being the primary backup. I don't see either Bruce or Conforto putting on a 1B glove at all in the regular season absent multiple injuries at the position.

6. Reyes is the backup SS for sure, though that could change if either DW is also out or if there's a long term injury to Cabrera. If this happens in the second half, you could conceivably see Rosario in '17.

Eddie Corona said...

a lot of good comments today

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