Tom Brennan - BRYCE HARPER OR JEFF MCNEIL?

Tom Brennan - BRYCE HARPER OR JEFF MCNEIL?

OMG! Another Brennan article on Jeff McNeil.  Stick with me here and expand your consciousness a bit, non-pharmacologically, OK?  Deep breath now.  OK, let's go!

Imagine if you asked this simple question at this time last year, "Given what you would have to pay for either of them, who would you rather have in your outfield, Bryce Harper or Jeff McNeil?"  

The lads in the white coats from Bellevue with the strait jackets would have come for you, for even asking the question.   CUCKOO.  CUCKOO.  CUCKOO.

A year later, not so cuckoo, it seems.  

Because, up to now, the Mets have not pursued Bryce Harper, in whole or in part, because of the previously unheralded, high-performing-in-2018 Jeff McNeil.

Bryce Harper is of course a major gate attraction who will likely be paid over $30 million per annum for many years.  

Gate drawing power increases revenues, and would help pay part of his huge multi-year salary bill.

Some of those years likely will be in his mid 30s.  

Ask Ken Griffey Jr. how that goes.  Griffey was "all time great" up to age 30, "downright mediocre" in his 30s.  

Jeff McNeil is not likely to ever be a gate attraction, no matter how good he turns out to be, as he comes across with no swagger, and as a quiet scrambler type (see picture), but he will be paid a relative pittance for the next 3-5 years.  

Perhaps just 2% of what Harper will be paid over the next 4 seasons.  Far less financially risky.

So, Harper would ring the turnstiles more than McNeil would, at least short term.  And Harper has more of a track record than McNeil.  But Harper's salary will be geometrically larger than McNeil's.  

But how do these guys project out in terms of 2019 splits?

I looked at Baseball Reference player pages and saw this for 2019:

Bryce Harper: .265/.385/.491

Jeff McNeil: .289/.350/.443

So, Harper would be paid 60 times more than Jeff in 2019 and 2020, considering just the first 2 years, yet put up pretty comparable numbers.

Now, keep in mind that Citifield seems to be statistically ranked as the worst hitting field in all of major league baseball - so, while I would presume Baseball Ref's McNeil numbers presume  he will be playing in Citifield, Harper's do not.

So, one could anticipate that if Harper's #'s were re-run by B Ref assuming he would play half his games at Citifield, his splits might not even be as good as McNeil's projected splits.

Why?  Let's say new Met Bryce Harper gets 275 ABs in Citifield and the dimensions cost him 5 doubles and 5 homers.

That does not sound like a lot - but over a full season, including home and away, that would cause his average to drop 20 points, and his slugging % would drop about 35 points.  Thus: 

Harper's #'s might be more like .245/.350/.470.  

Compare those to McNeil's .289/.350/.443.  

A statistical dead heat.

My guess?  Brodie VW and the Wilpons know that, and are loathe to spend huge dollars for Harper for that reason.

I also think that when an owner like Jeff Wilpon has been burned so many times, first with Bernie Madoff and then with bad big-big-big bucks deals like Martinez, Santana, Wright, Cespedes, etc. that have gone way, way south, you get understandably skittish about the next mega deal,.

You understandably think more about what could go wrong and less on what could go right.

So I can understand why the Wilpons would want Jeff McNeil in the outfield.  And not Bryce Harper.

What, of course, do you think?

Before I go, just for fun, let's look at other key 2019 Mets' projected 2019 splits, courtesy again of Baseball Reference:

Brandon Nimmo: .262/.380/.447 - not bad, think he will do better.

Michael Conforto: .250/.349/.461 - I think he'll do somewhat better.

Robbie Cano: .275/.334/.456 - feels about right.

Amed Rosario: .258/.303/.397 - hardly more than his 2018 splits, so I think he'll do somewhat better.

Todd Frazier: "Mr .213 for 2017 and 2018" is at .216/.312/.416.  I guess B Ref thinks he'll sneak one more slow grounder thru the infield and not hit .213 three years in a row.

So there you have it.  Have a great day.