2/16/21

Tom Brennan - THE IMPACT OF THE LOSS OF SETH LUGO


Before I start the main portion of my article, since I first drafted it up, the Mets announced the signing of a solid major leaguer in Kevin Pillar.  I am unaware of the terms, but no doubt drastically cheaper and shorter than the contract of one George Springer.

I am fine without Springer and with CFs Pillar and Albert Almora, assuming there is no DH.  We get two decent righty players for center field, but will (subject to change during the season, of course, as circumstances dictate) still be able to start the defense-challenged but AWESOMELY OFFENSE-PRODUCING TRIO of Smith, Nimmo, and Conforto at the same time.

Even if the DH is added, a CF combo of Pillar and Almora is a lot better than terrible, and it does not tie up the center field with a huge multi-year contract in case Pete-Crow Armstrong goes all "Juan Soto" on the Mets and proves he is ready for the Mets' starting major league CF gig by, say, mid-2022.  Sometimes, the highly talent race up to the major league level.

OK, now on to my article du jour. 

Let me follow on to Professor Reese Kaplan's fine article yesterday on who the Mets might get to make up for the temporary loss in 2021 of one of our relievers (named below - be patient), with my take on why the Mets need to do something.

As Seth Lugo said, essentially, thank heavens it wasn't his UCL and thank heavens it was in mid February and not August that he'd need this surgery and miss perhaps 10 weeks of in-season baseball.

After all the next 6 weeks don't count in the standings.

But it is still a big blow to the bullpen.

Lugo has saved 12 of 20 games in his career for the Mets - that doesn't sound overwhelming, but it is about league average.

This injury means that Edwin Diaz needs to be healthy and "the good Edwin" early this year, because who else on this squad will save games?

Jeurys Familia?  0 for 5 in saves the past 2 seasons. No thanks.

Dellin Betances?  Maybe, if he is really "back", but he has saved just 4 of 7 in the past 3 seasons, all in a now-distant 2018.  Doubtful you want him closing at all.

Miguel Castro? 7 for 17 in his career.  Uhh-uhh.

Trevor May?  Perhaps.  7 for 10 the past 3 seasons.  But prefer to keep him as your 7th or 8 inning stud.

Rob Gsellman?  Well, he did save 13 of 20 in 2018, but is a "perfect" 0 for 5 since.  He has to make the team first before being considered to close in a pinch.

Lugo in his Mets career is 10-9, 2.53 as a reliever.  

Pretty excellent.  

We NEED Seth.

I'd also like to see him stay healthy in 2021 when he returns (quickly, please) because I want to see him get wealthy.  As a former 34th round underdog, he has overachieved and is making $2.9 million this year.  Next year could be $5 million.  

I like to see underdogs succeed - and get wealthy - in this game.

No doubt in my mind: the Mets need to acquire another reliable reliever who could close in a pinch.

After all, as Zach Scott said, you can never have too much pitching.

Let me add: 

ESPECIALLY IN THE BULLPEN.  

So letting the Yanks and not the Mets get the quite talented Justin Wilson wasn't the way to do that, but getting lesser pitchers like Mike Montgomery and Tommy Hunter helps.  I've always, too, been fond of Tommies, since I am one personally and so were Agee and Seaver (Glavine as a Met was OK, too).

We still need another quality pitcher, though, like a Trevor Rosenthal...the current pitching gaggle seems short a real quality piece or two.  My next article is Thursday, so Zach Scott, I want them both by then if you don't mind. My article on Thursday is about something else, but I'll gladly change it like I did for Pillar today.

 

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I would like them to sign Rosenthal, too. At this point, he's the best-last guy standing. Comes with some risk. Odd the Mets painted themselves into this corner w/ an incomplete pen that was obviously short-handed before Lugo went down. Injuries happen.

I will say: I like Familia, always have. In diminished role, I think he gives the team innings and durability. Forget the salary, that's done. I mean to say, I don't hate that we have him.

Too bad about Wilson, liked him.

Given the strong possibility of Almora being very bad, Pillar gives the Mets a degree of certainty and flexibility. I believe Almora has an option, and Sandy puts a high value on that, hates getting trapped into keeping a guy on roster or DFA. I don't see either, or even combined, as "our centerfielders."

Bradley, Jr priced himself out of a good job. I really believe he was hoping for 4/$48 and that's about 3x too much and the length was terrible. The DH issue screwed him, too.

Still need a #4 pitcher. Other than that, and the quality reliever, I'm good to open up the season. Getting close.

Jimmy

Reese Kaplan said...

There are some other worthy relievers but Rosenthal is the best of the lot. Tony Watson would be my plan B.

Tom Brennan said...

Jimmy, I agree with you on Familia - you just have to hope he has one more decent year in him - 2020 wasn't terrible. I am very disappointed, frankly, that we did not keep Wilson. When we didn't get Hand and did get Loup, I thought Wilson would quickly follow.

Reese, Watson would be a good choice.

I know it has been a complete failure (think Sewald, Bashlor, etc.) for the Mets to bring up minor leaguers as relievers, pretty much since Lugo and Gsellman in 2016 and Familia and Robles a few years earlier, but I wonder if Szapucki, McWilliams, or Gilliam have any chance of being productive, successful relievers in 2021. Think of that utter dearth of Mets' minor leaguers-turned successful relievers, compared to say Tampa and Oakland.

Anonymous said...

I think there's a possibility that from all the fringe arms we've acquired that a couple, a few, might be useful. It's a good strategy.

I would have preferred to see a couple of more proven guys, Colome, for example, signed to one-year deals in addition to collecting an assorted of "maybe interesting" arms like, say, Tarpley. I thought there was an opportunity given the down market.

They need another guy who knows his way through a long, tough, full ML season.

Jimmy

Gary Seagren said...

Really don't get the Wilson thing..why didn't we sign him? We also need another starter and my pick would be Walker and agree Rosenthal for the pen. I wonder after losing out on their big push for Bauer their not in a "lets see how this all plays out for a few months" and then Lugo and Thor come back and reassess our needs then.

Tom Brennan said...

Wilson picking the Yanks over the Mets - I too want to know why. Maybe, as a lefty, he liked the dimensions a bit more.

JC Shaf said...

Mets bullpen in bad shape and not sure why people still have any faith in Familia. He pitches like he is just hoping for a strike. Players are laying off his first couple of pitches as he usually falls behind in the count and then either draws a walk or gets a must strike pitch that is hittable. Passing on Henriks, Hand and Colome a mistake