LIGHTS! CAMERAS! BASEBALL ACTION!
Now that the minor league fellas have gotten past their 20 month hiatus and are playing again (or for the first time as pros), I thought I'd take a crack at a less theoretical, more performance-based attempt at coming up with a top 25.
The early 2021 performance has me pushing some guys higher than expected, and others out of the top 30 altogether.
And, if they haven't played in an official game yet, I am leaving them out of my top 10 (except for my # 9).
Why? Because I like to see the merchandise before I "buy it."
Here goes - nothing overly scientific, following the gut here:
1) Francisco Alvarez - when do we start referring to him as a prodigious hitter? Perhaps a bit too soon? Is he really ours? Wow.
2) Brett Baty - have to keep reminding myself that Brooklyn, where he is, is now not rookie ball, but High A. He is really raking there, and strikeouts are good.
3) Ronny Mauricio - strikeouts are pretty high, which concerns me a bit, but Ronny is hitting well and with power for Brooklyn. Intriguing upside if power emerges.
4) Pete-Crow Armstrong - he had to and get injured and need surgery. Bummer. He had a remarkable .563 OBP in Low A ball, remarkable since he went straight there without rookie ball. To me, given his age, a real “star of the future” feel.
5) Tylor Megill - yes, I have him at # 5....high-powered arm, great breaking stuff, excellent command in early 2021. Best pitcher in Mets’ minors IMO. He is my Mets' hoops team small forward. After all, he definitely has a real shot. But I am bringing him off the bench so he can protect that pitching cannon.
6) Mark Vientos - challenged in AA, very slow start, but the bat has heated up a bit. Fellow 3B Baty is nipping at his heels, though.
7) Tom Szapucki - he pitches more than JT Ginn, but not by much. Just kidding. Lefty has been solid in AAA. This writer Tom loves lefties named Tom, being a lefty myself. When he’ll make a stacked-when-healthy Mets pitching staff, I’m not sure. Being lefty makes him a rare commodity. Maybe he'll debut soon, since only Jake is due back quickly and Yamamoto was less than impressive Sunday. Of course, Lucchesi was superb on Saturday, so I'll let the braintrust figure whether to recall Szapucki or not.
8) J.T. Ginn - I imagine if Thor is starting to pitch now, his contempraneous TJS surgery survivor, Ginn, soon will, too. Highly hyped pitcher. Anxious to see what he does.
9) Alex Ramirez - highly regard young outfield prospect, by all accounts, but he is yet to surface in games.
10) Johneshwy Fargas - maybe he won't be in this list long at all - he is after all having early success in the big leagues and it could be the start of something more lengthy.
Could be even more successful than Tomas Nido is, John from Albany, although that is clearly a very tall order, since Nido is a burgeoning star. Quick as heck is Fargas, and he is also my starting point guard.
11) Bryce Montes de Oca - the big (6'7" 265) flamethrower is healthy and dangerous to hitters. He is my power forward.
12) Junior Santos - still young as heck, we'll see if he can pull it all together into a career as a major league starter. Sputtering so far - but he is: 6'8"....and playing center for my Top 30.
13) Robert Dominguez - very highly regarded 6'5" righty. Looking forward to seeing what he's got. Meanwhile, he is my starting shooting guard.
14) Nick Meyer - always touted a strong D first catcher, he is hitting well so far, too. So far, a big improvement with the stick for the 24 year old. He would not have been in my top 30 before this season started - he is hitting his way in.
15) Jake Mangum - gotta get someone named Jake in the top 30. Recently promoted to AA despite a slow start in A ball, he is hot over his first few games in AA. A hitter AND a centerfielder! WE NEED CF'S!
16) Drew Ferguson - always a scrappy prospect in a deep Astros farm system. Can he make it? He has to be disappointed he started slowly in 2021, given all the Mets’ OF call ups. May have him too high.
17) Stephen Nogosek - had some good outings. If this was shaky Mets pitching circa 2020, he’d be in the Mets’ bullpen right now. Tighten that control, Steve-o.
18) Yoel Romero - the multi-position Yoel is hitting well in a mostly weak offensive prospect field.
19) Matt Allan - he'll probably be fine after his Tommy John surgery, but to have only thrown a handful of pro innings in 2019, with the likelihood that his next pro innings will occur 3 year later, causes me to push him further down the list into "show me" status.
20) Carlos Cortes - a rare breed in the Mets' minors - an actual hitter! Doing well in AA - let's see what he can do to get to AAA before too long. Will he climb the ranks? Yes.
21) Tony Dibrell - the righty starter is starting off 2021 better than he finished off 2019, although his start Tuesday night looked lie the return of 2019. Go, Tony Dibs, go!
22) Wilmer Reyes - another guy in the Met org's infirmary. Oy vey. John from Albany, what's his deal? If he doesn't show up here soon, catcher David Rodriguez is getting put in here.
23) Sammy Tavarez - hard thrower, just emerging with St Lucie, with 2 perfect innings and 4 Ks, followed by 2 innings of 2 run ball with 3 Ks and a save. He could shoot up the list fast, despite a very shaky third outing Tuesday night. 6'7" hulk. He is my starting small forward.
24) Bradley Roney - pitcher off to an interesting start in 2021 - worth a gambit at # 24. The 28 year old has fanned 15 in 7.2 IP in AA and AAA, and 60 in 41 innings in 2019. 306 in 214 career minor league innings. vs. 137 hits allowed - and 14-7, 3.33 lifetime with 23 of 28 in saves - but over time, control has been a tad suspect. Former 8th rounder in 2014.
25) Andrew Mitchell - a fine start to 2021 for this pitcher, and that's a good start. Keep going, Andrew.
26) Joe Genord - big power at 1B, concerned about his K rate.
27) Patrick Mazeika - gotta be in the top 30 somewhere - he is likely to soon return to Syracuse as the walking wounded Mets return, but he is a legend to Mets fans. Makes good contact - needs more hits. If he can stay in the majors, off this list he'll come.
28) Freddy Valdez - I want to see him in action before inching him up the list. But he is touted.
29) Joshua Cornielly - hard throwing youngster - need to see him in action. If he's real good, I'll be Doing the Freddy.
30) Brian Metoyer - one bad game this year, along with 3 good ones for High A Brooklyn. He does not surrender many hits (20 in 36.1 innings this season and last), and his bad former control issues have shown real improvement. A 40th round dark horse, so I stuck him at # 30. We'll see if he can keep climbing. I think he will. Throws 97 or so, with improved control, so I ask... Why can't he climb?
Notably absent from my top 25 are two hitters included in the Mets' site's own Top 15. I'll let you guess who they are.
The way I see it, no matter how athletic and toolsy they may be, having a combined roughly 500 strikeouts in around 1,650 plate appearances bumps them out of my top prospects list. One of them had stuck out 38 times in his first 17 games in low A ball. They need to cut the Ks in half for me to get on board.
Similarly, other guys like a Sam McWilliams and a Franklyn Kilome just give up too many base runners for my liking, so they are out of my top 30. You guys want to emulate the Mets' Tuesday night win over the Rockies: 3 hits, 1 run, 16 Ks.
That's my list - I expect it to change come draft time, and by July 1, with several more weeks of games played, it could look a whole lot different.
12 comments:
David Thompson is hot, and will be in my top 30 if the bat does not go quiet
Reading this piece, I was about to say the same thing about David Thompson. He is my comeback of year candidate.
Vientos really heating up as well. 4 for 8 last night in double header sweep with a HR and walk off hit in night cap. This was the 9th game against Akron. Vientos may have figured out how Akron was pitching to him and made the correct adjustments.
Dave Rodriguez who raked all Winter is also starting to hit. With Hayden Sanger on team as well D-Rod will need to hit to play.
D Rod was there until the last second. I was disappointed in his offense so far. I am hopeful his winter hitting returns
Tom, leaving Adrian Hernandez off doesn’t bother me, but Jalen Palmer? As for Shervyen Newton, guy hasn’t played much in three years, have patience.
I’m watching Mazeika, and I’m not happy. I rooted for him because I like the story, and I always root for those others say aren’t good enough. He was always “an offensive catcher” with bad defense. I wanted to see him make it. But, I see he doesn’t have hunger. This guy is a 25 year old athlete that has zero pop. Yes, he always puts bat on ball, but how far does it go? I see zero muscle tone on this kid. You’re an athlete bud, where’s your weight training regimen to make yourself stronger so you can be more successful? I seem to root for the wrong stories...
Four years ago, I realized my favorite Met didn’t care about improving himself. I used to write that Wilmer Flores should put a tire on a chair at first base and take 100 grounders a day at third base all winter and throw it through the tire. Everyday! I never once heard that Flores worked hard on his defense, and that bothered me. So, now I say about Mazeika: Yes, he has worked hard on defense, but that bat is a pee shooter and he needs to workout to build his exit velo. Game winning fielder’s choices are cute for a week or so, but you aren’t making a career with them.
As per the rest of this list, I like it. It’s fair, except I don’t know what Junior Santos has done to deserve being that high. He has struggled in 2019 after 45 successful innings in 2018, and is struggling now. But, we know taller pitchers take longer to align their stuff, ask Magill. I don’t know what the story is with Kilome, he seems to have regressed. As for McWiliams, he seemed sharper in spring training. It may be that the Mets pitching system isn’t as strong as we remembered it being eight or nine years ago when a majority of their talented arms did well, but they seemed to have fewer of them?
Gus - I spoke to Syracuse Manager Chad Kreuter about Kilome and McWilliams.
Kilome, he missed all of 2019 with TJS and pitched sparingly last year. This year he seems to do well for a few innings then hits a wall...Chad said they are trying to build him up to be more effective each time. Mack has said that a scout told him that Kilome has not recovered since tge TJS. My opinion? Let him work in AAA and see where he is in a few months. He cleared waivers for a reason but let him pitch.
McWilliams - Chad said he has made big strides "believe it or not" Chad said the have been working on his control first and will work on placement going forward. He has great stuff. Can he harness it?
Cool, thank you John for that information. Glad to see there is a beacon of hope.
With the recent setbacks to Thor and Cookie, combined with Lucchesi's inconsistency, it wouldn't surprise me if someone is called up (or traded for) to fill the #5 slot.
Can Szapucki or Megill get a shot?
Bill, I think Megill (weather permitting) goes tonight - he could be ready after this one. But if they feel Szapucki is ready, he'll get the nod, given AAA status.
If he is AAA, do relief pitchers fall under AARP?
Gus, I agree with you on Mazeika, or I'd have had him higher. Objectively, maybe he doesn't even belong in the 20s, but gets a pass due to 1) the talent level 1 thru 30, and 2) his heroics, but he has been a disappointment to me since 2017. Long time. He is the beneficiary of a tidal wave of injuries.
Gus, on Jaylen, he barely missed my top 30, and I may be a bit harsh on penalizing him for his Ks. He is just 20, and did leap from rookie ball to full A. He could be in my top 15 by season's end - just gotta show the K rate is getting manageable. Still too high.
Sherveyn has fanned a mind-boggling 42 times in 79 ABs in A ball. To me, there is only one way back into my top 30 - quickly cut that rate by almost half. And he is doing that in the 4th level below the majors.
Bill, in fairness to Lucchesi, his last 2 starts total 7.2 innings, 3 hits, 3 walks, 10 Ks, 1 run. Not shabby. I did not see the quality of his last start effort, but I just like the guy for some reason. I'm a fan. Go, Joey, go. Lefties gotta stick together.
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