First up...
Lefties
I’m no analytical genius and would not fit in with these guys in their cubicles (remember when we used to have offices?), but there seems to be a big difference between the Mets relief pitchers that produce and the ones that keep failing most of the times they pitch.
Some numbers as of end of games of 6-21:
LHP Chasen Schreve has an ERA of 5.61. In the last 7-G, he has a 6.75-ERA, has given up 7-ER in 9.1-IP, and has produced a 1.50-WHIP.
LHP Joely Rodriguez has an ERA of 5.06. In the last 7-G, he has an 8.31-ERA, has given up 4-ER, in 4.1-IP, and has a WHIP of 2.31.
RHP Adonis Medina has an ERA of 4.50. In the last seven games, he has pitched in seven games, given up 7-ER in 13.0-IP, and has a WHIP of 1.46.
RHP Yoan Lopez has an ERA of 6.75. He has given up three runs in four innings pitched and has a WHIP of 1.75.
At the same time, Edwin Diaz, Adam Ottavino, and Drew Smith have all done well.
I know two of these are lefties, but so is Thomas Szapucki. He may have had a horrible outing early on for the Mets, but, in my opinion, would make a perfect one to two inning reliever.
Past that, you would have to move starter LHP David Peterson to the pen, but he’s currently your only starting lefty. And, he’s doing good where he currently is.
The Mets should also consider adding Stephen Nogosek, but he won’t solve the lefty problem.
No, this is the primary area that the Mets should target when they begin contacting teams for players that could come their way when the trading period starts.
Today’s targeted draft prospect is someone that might not only be around at 1.11 but might also be the “best player available” when it is time for the Mets to pick first.
There are two great catchers in this draft. The first, Kevin Parada, will be gone when the Mets pick at 1.11. Daniel Susac probably will still be on the board.
According to MLB.com:
Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 40 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55
The younger brother of one-time big league catcher Andrew Susac, Daniel was a legitimate high school prospect from Northern California in 2020, but went undrafted in the five-round Draft that summer.
He went on to the University of Arizona and earned freshman All-American honors, as well as being named the Pac-12 Freshman of the Year, before playing well for USA Baseball’s Collegiate National team over the summer. It’s carried over to a big 2022 season, especially at the plate.
Now a Draft-eligible true sophomore, Susac has the chance to be an impact player on both sides of the ball. A switch-hitter when he joined the Wildcats, he’s hit almost exclusively right-handed, which scouts thought was his better side as a prepster anyway.
Big and physical, Susac has shown the ability to drive the ball to all fields, using the gap very well during his freshman season. There’s legitimate power to tap into as well. A former high school quarterback, he’s a better athlete and moves better than you’d think given his size.
Behind the plate, Susac’s plus arm plays well, and he did show off above-average defensive skills last spring, though he wasn’t receiving quite as well in the fall. Even so, he’s one of the best college backstops in the class, cementing his place in the first round with a very strong spring.
His stats this year are: 64-G, 263-AB, .366/.429/.582, 12-HR
Yeah, I know, what do you do when this guy is ready and Francisco Alvarez is tearing up the AA league? This is the main reason I would pass here and go to the next player on my board. It’s not like I’m going to then be drafting some dud.
But the other side is, draft this stud, develop him, and if you wind up with two great young catchers that are ready to play in the majors, you would sort of control the phone calls during trade periods, wouldn’t you?
Wednesday’s tweets -
Tim Healey @timbhealey
Mets to hit 20 homers in the team's first 70 games:
* Dave Kingman (1976)
* Darryl Strawberry (1987)
* Mike Piazza (2000)
* Carlos Delgado (2006)
* Pete Alonso (2019)
* Pete Alonso (2022)
Alonso is the only one to do it twice.
12 comments:
DRAFT THE CATCHER!! To me it's a no brainer because he'd be gold as a trade piece if he develops as promised. As always great stuff Boss.
Agree with Gary - worth real consideration, because with a DH, you have a safety valve with using an Alvarez and a Susac - they can each play 150 games, with splitting the DH a lot, if need be - or be traded for gold if really good.
As great as Pete is doing, somehow the Yanks are better - Judge has 27 HRs now, including one that basically either hit the roof in Tampa or just missed it. 27, with a week left in June and 93 games to go. They are 51-18, an insane pace.
Eric Orze could be your loogy substitute, even as a righty. He was hit hard early in the season, much better of late.
I can't tell from his splits when he gave up his HRs to lefties. but in 12-1 IP, he has allowed just 5 hits (3 HRs) to lefties, with 19 Ks. That shows me he is effective vs. lefties.
So, if they feel Szapucki still needs to sharpen up and pick up some momentum, Orze could be useful vs. lefty bats.
He really.is a beast
Thanks
You're the Orze guy.
I was just looking at an SNY mock draft - don't know who wrote it - but it had the Mets picking Jung at 11 and Lesko at 14 with Susac falling to 20.
I'm not an expert here, but from what I have been reading for the last 6 months If I'm picking between Jung and Susac, I pick Susac. Am I wrong?
I can’t believe I see some drafts dropping Susac to #18 and giving the Mets infielders like Jung. That’s so stupid it can’t be explained to idiots. The Mets system needs talent on the mound, elite bats and behind the plate. Senger, Meyer, Mazeika are our hope if Alvarez gets hurt or fails? Really? In order:
Susac
Lesko
Prielipp
Berry
I want an elite bat of the player that is not much of a defender. Jung isn’t that. Collier is a nice player, but Baty, Mauricio, Vientos.. the cupboard is more full there. Even Tidwell and other top arms are a need! You can draft for need, look at the Angels.
Jung is the best second baseman m in the draft
I don't think you fail with either
Berry will probably be gone in first 10 picks
Priellip is good but there are better pitchers to consider at 1.11 or 1.14
Mack appropriately points out the recent performance of relievers. There's a few that really have given up significant damage recently. I'm not convinced that it is an issue with them physically - I just think that as the pitching continues to thin out those folks are being used in higher leverage situations that they're not up to. Some of their prior, more acceptable stats were accumulated as they were eating up innings after the Mets had gotten out to large leads. There is a big difference between starting an inning with a 5 run lead and coming in with men on base during a rally. If you had a choice, you would not use some of these guys in those situations without much further development.
My disappointments are Schreve and Medina - I thought both had what it takes to pitch in higher leverage situations. Hope they figure it out soon, because the pitching staff's health is trending in the wrong direction with Carrasco's back "tightness".
Tomorrow I look at the dismal ERAs of AAA & AA lefties
Reliever trade target? Paul Sewald?
As I said yesterday, with the 3-batter rule here to stay, the need for a "LOOGY" is diminished. The Astros are doing pretty well without a lefty in the pen, and a good RHRP can get lefty hitters out. A lefty in the pen must also get righty hitters out just as the righty must do with lefties.
Once Max, Jake and Tylor return, 2 of our SPs will be going either upstate or to the pen. And Hunter, Nogosek and Holderman deserve chances to show what they can do.
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