11/16/22

Reese Kaplan -- Let's Think About What No One Wants to Admit


There's an imponderable possibility that most Mets fans don't want to allow to enter their cerebellums in fear it would revive the Midnight Massacre flashbacks from June 15th of 1977 when the Mets essentially gave away both Tom Seaver and Dave Kingman in the quest to show the players that the team was more powerful than they were.  

Nowadays that same prospect appears again as Jacob deGrom has opted out of his contract in the quest of greater riches.  He'd likely stay if the offer was from New York, but like many people before him he might also simply follow the yellow brick road wherever the curbstones made of solid gold are put into place.

Rather than go into the pros and cons of inking the best pitcher the Mets have ever had (look it up -- numbers better than Seaver), instead let's consider what it would be like in a post-deGrom Mets world.  

The money is only one part of the equation as Steve Cohen doesn't seem to fret over every little penny like some well known previous owners did.  The other side is the amount of output the team would have received for that investment since staying healthy has lately been an issue for the man who would like to surpass the dollars earned by now former teammate Max Scherzer.  


So roll your mental clocks ahead to February of 2023 with Spring Training starting down in Port St. Lucie and great hopes for a pennant dancing in everyone's heads.  Optimism for 2023 is infectious and the World Series is the destination planned for the boys in blue and orange.  

So, without deGrom it means the Mets find themselves with roughly $44 million extra dollars to spend to address issues on the team.  That's hardly chump change, yet at the same time you do have to marvel at how salaries have escalated for good but not great players throughout the major leagues.  

Take Brandon Nimmo, for example, a player who is a solid defender and showing a great attitude, but never having made an All Star team and whose greatest attribute is not his batting average nor home run power, but his on base percentage.  He's slated to get a multiyear deal over the QO $19.65 million AAV.  


So coming back to the deGrom-less Mets, how would they use that newfound $44 million bonanza?  Well, for two pitchers looking to depart in Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker, the total salary expenditure would be well under that sum and deliver 30+ starts from each of them.  On the basis of not seeing the 2023 equivalent of Thomas Szapucki and his 60.75 ERA starting again for the Mets during an extended IL stint from the former ace.  

Then there is the issue of losing out on Brandon Nimmo.  Would the Mets want to allocate some of that surplus cash to replacing one of the outfielders with perhaps Starling Marte returning to his previous home of center field?


Of course, the bullpen is another matter.  After Edwin Diaz and Drew Smith the Mets are standing to lose out on Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Trevor Williams and already passed on Mychal Givens.  That's a lot of 5th through 8th innings that need to be addressed as well.  

Now it's easy for us who are not part of the management team nor the accounting department to sit back and say, "Just go out and pay for the best of the best to fill your roster!"  Anyone who was alive and kicking during the George Steinbrenner Yankee era knows what that is like.  Lately it's been the Dodgers, Braves and even the Padres spending wildly and usually achieving what they set out to do -- advancing in the postseason.  

The Mets have been vocal about improving the minor league operations as evidenced by the hiring of a new pitching guru who is only 27 years of age and the statements made about trying to avoid negotiations with players who would require draft-pick compensation for having turned down Qualifying Offers.  

These signs are indicative of long range thinking but the team is not quite there yet.  The club has 4 or 5 offensive players who seem ready to make impact in the big leagues soon enough with their bats but there's precious little in the way of arms.  Consequently it may take some free agent signings and trades to fulfill the current vacancies in the rotation and in the pen.  


So instead of focusing on what the Mets might lose if deGrom goes elsewhere, instead ponder what is it that the Mets could do if they suddenly found themselves in need not only of another starting pitcher, but also with a big pile of cash to improve the overall team construction.  Here's hoping that the returns are better than Dan Norman or Paul Siebert.  

This time there are adults in the room and if you're willing to look past some midseason flubs, they seem to have more of a plan in mind than did their many predecessors.

7 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Large task ahead, large checkbook in hand, hopefully that is sufficient to meet the challenge of building a 2023 roster.

Mack Ade said...

I would miss Jake but I would love ti dish him money around, first by extending the likes of Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil.

I still say target this team for 2024. Just too much loss this season.

The Mets need a better balance of stars/team controlled players.

2023 could be the year to accomplish that in 2024.

Tom Brennan said...

If we passed on Jake and re-signed Bassitt and Walker, they were 27-14 last year. Spend the $$ on making it a killer offense and killer pen, and they'll be 27-14 again.

Mack Ade said...

Good plan too Tom

Mike Freire said...

Small quibble, but Seaver was way more reliable then Jake.......Jake might have better numbers in a shorter sample size, but Seaver was a beast for the better part of a generation and he routinely pitched 30+ times per year and well over 200 innings per season.

I would take a prime Seaver 100% of the time over Jake, but that's just me (they are/were both fantastic).

I also think the money that it will take to sign Jake could be spread around and make the overall lineup more balanced, albeit slightly less intimidating at the top of the rotation. Right now, you have the first (Max), fourth (Cookie) and fifth (Peterson or Megill) spots locked up......still need a 2 and a 3, IMO and you can probably get them for 45 million per year (Jake's reported ask).

Anonymous said...

Mets kind of need to infuse the younger and most talented AAA players into the 2023 equation. They also need to get a little "more creative" with their thinking I believe.

There is a tradition here with this team of going after the big payroll FA's and implanting them into the everyday lineup. I understand this philosophy, but sometimes wonder if it isn't such a bad idea instead to get guys like Mark Vientos and others like a Josh Walker into that same lineup from the beginning of the 2023 season and not later on. Then see where that all goes come June, allowing these younger players to get comfortable in the bigs,

I think that Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez will be solid come June. But if the Mets were to get optimally creative, I think finding Mark Vientos starting in left field (although not his natural position) could be a big benefit to this.

Vientos is a very gifted smooth and natural baseball player. He just needs experience in left field (something Mets brass should of thought of before the offseason had begun most likely) and let Mark, Brett, and Francisco get their at bats right from game one 2023.

I do not think that this is not a really good idea. It implants maximum Mets youth immediately, and helps to reshape the NY Mets future in a very positive way I believe.

Sometimes the best solution for the immediate and the future is actually letting the kids play now. All three are super low risk players.

i.e. Cam Reddish and Jericho Sims NYK. All Thibs has to do now, is help groom Sims with a decent mid-depth jumper to pull the opposing teams center out to cover him.

Both are excellent additions and will fare exceedingly well long term for this organization.

Anonymous said...

Mike F.:

No comparison to me between Seaver and Jake. The record speaks for itself. Tom terrific pitched like eight more seasons after leaving the Mets. Worst NYM decision ever to me, to allow him to move on.

Whereas an argument that Jake deGrom's arm troubles the last two seasons (at least) cost this organization quite a bit beyond just salary. Jake was a great pitcher here certainly, no one can deny this. But sometimes the writing with a player at 35 is clearly on the wall for anyone to see. But will these NYM?