Them Fangraphs fellers sure do a swell job at projecting future season results.
So what do the Graphic dudes have to say about our Fearsome Foursome (Alvarez, Baty, Vientos and Mauricio) and, while I am on the subject, glove wizard Jake Mangum?
As I understand it, their total “at bat” projections are not Mets-specific, as the combined at bats for the 5 players in the projections exceed 2,100.
It likely more represents what they might provide to any team that could allow them that many at bats in 2023, and I’d be shocked if those 5 got anywhere near 2,100 ABs with the 2023 Mets.
But the FG projections were interesting, especially the Alvarez HRs.
ALVAREZ:
341 ABs, 27 HRs, 55 RBIs, .238/.313/.513. I’d take that, wouldn’t you?
BATY:
358 ABs, 13 HRs, 55 RBIs, .235/.301/.397.
VIENTOS:
362 ABs, 20 HRs, 44 RBIs(?), .238/.290/.461.
MAURICIO:
458 ABs (?), 21 HRs, 54 RBIs, .229/.272/.419.
MANGUM:
303 ABs, 6 HRs, 37 RBIs, .234/.284/.350.
Overall, those numbers aren’t bad, but (except for Alvarez) they don’t make you do back flips. Hopefully those players will outdo those slash total estimates and come in 1 thru 5 in next season’s NL Rookie of the Year voting.
BUT…BRYAN REYNOLDS?
Prospects can be trade fodder, too. Perhaps if expensive Nimmo goes elsewhere, Pittsburgh power-hitting CF Bryan Reynolds could be a trade target.
He is cheap salary-wise….2nd season of a 2 year, $13.5 million deal, 28 years old next spring, free agent in 2026.
27 HRs in 145 games in 2022, without line up protection, and he hit over .300 as a 2019 rookie and again in 2021. 18 career triples and 16 steals in 2000 plate appearances, so he is not slow. Career .281/.361.481. Switch hitter who, remarkably, is .281 hitting lefty and .281 righty.
His salary is dirt cheap, but very high for Pittsburgh.
Would they take 3 guys on minimum salary - Vientos, Mauricio, and Montes de Oca - in a trade? Their pen save guys had ERAs in the mid 4s, so possibly de Oca (17 of 20 in minors saves) could be an upgrade if he continues to progress.
Such a trade frees up the perhaps $$15-20 million extra above Reynolds that the Mets wouldn’t pay Nimmo that could be used elsewhere. Like perhaps for a one year Conforto reunion?
ARIZONA FALL LEAGUE IS OVER
The team the Mets were on (Peoria Javelinas) lost their one-and-out playoff game on November 11.
None of the Mets played in that game. Why? Poor performance.
Of the 9 Mets players in the AFL this year, Mike Vasil pitched impressively, as did lefty Josh Walker in relief. Then…the drop off.
SS Kevin Kendall, with only about 150 pro plate appearances before the AFL assignment because he missed most of the 2022 regular season, got in 20 games, hitting .208/.344/.286, so against such relatively tough competition, he held his own. He did get out of the AFL gate hot, then slumped. Just 2 errors in 18 games at 2nd and SS, though, and 4 of 4 in swipes.
Consuegra, McIlwain, and Ritter? All hit under .200 in a very hitter-friendly league, where the average ERA was 5.50. Ritter did have 11 RBIs with 7 hits.
Mets chuckers Chris Scott, Grant Hartwig and Franklin Sanchez combined for an ERA of 10.50 and a WHIP over 2.
53 hits allowed in 30 combined innings for the terribly tattooed trio.
So there you have it, folks. My take is, given the vast number of pitchers the Mets use annually (42 in 2021, 32 in 2022), Vasil, Hartwig, and Walker still might see some time in Queens in 2023.
17 comments:
Maybe Mangum,Lugo and Nogosek?
1, I find Fangraphs consistently low on batting average projections and they continue their record with these Mets chips,
I would not be happy with these batting averages, no matter now many home runs they hit.
2, Reynolds could be a good replacement in center. Might take Mangum in that trade (CF) to help pull it off. Pirates operated a team on team controlled players and three Mets chips could do the trick here.
3. In my opinion, the Mets sent mostly wrong players to play here. Their objective was obviously to find out if they could excel. They found that out. They can't.
I agree with Mack's statement - I would not be happy with any of the projected batting averages for those prospects. I also looked at their OPS and only Alvarez stood out - the rest of them would not do well with the fans or position the team for greatness. That means that they would not be starters - platoon players at best as they get their MLB experience.
Brian Reynolds was an all-star a few years ago, but he does not stand out as a guy I would want in CF instead of Nimmo. I would not offer the Pirates any of the packages mentioned.
Mack, I agree with you on FanGraphs average projections. But I think for next year, they are perhaps no more than 10 points too conservative. Unless the elimination of the shift pushes all averages higher.
Agree - they might jump on a deal like that if Mangum were added in.
I agree with your take on Arizona, except for Kendall...I think they think he has talent, and wanted to try to catch him up on ABs, given he'd played so little. Maybe the dividends will show for Kendall in 2023. Still, I am not convinced his ceiling is as high or higher than Wyatt Young, who also jumped levels in 2022 and really had a solid year in AA and AAA.
Lastly, to Anon...Lugo could not be in a deal as he is a free agent. Bigger question re: Lugo: should the Mets sign him as a starter? I was shocked to see Lugo had a 2.20 career ERA at Citi, and a high 4.70 on the road. That probably will suppress his market value a bit.
I don't want to speak for anyone else, but when I saw Anon's comment I thought he was referring to William Lugo, not Seth.
Thanks for your fine AZ updates, Tom. Will you be doing the same for the Caribbean players?
Some pretty low projections on Baty and Mangum. They can outhit those averages. I also dont think Alvarez hits that low either. Mauricio those might be the kind of stats he has.
I guess I, the Dove man, am anonymous.
Bill, only if Mack buys me a ticket to do on site Caribbean reportage :)
Hey, Ernest, did not realize you were "anonymous" - may want to ask Mack how you can correct that. Yes, I do realize now that you referred to William Lugo, as I know that you know the status on Seth. I do not think that package would sufficiently entice the Pirates, though. Maybe a guy like Wyatt Young, too, who probably is MLB ready now, but blocked as of now in the Mets system.
Maybe it is all in a unique approach for each years team.
The only disagreement (lets say) that I have always had here with this organizations player personnel is with the consistency every season to building their roster. It just lacks taking the "smaller sized risks" sometimes needed to go all the way. Risk/Reward.
To me, sometimes taking that slightly risky chance on a uniquely talented rookie Mets player groomed from within. Although, I guess one could say that Peter Alonso was more recently a slight rookie risk. But Peter had that unique power stroke that the Mets really needed at Citi Field.
True, the 1986 World Series NY Mets really didn't have much risk built into it.
It was more of a mirror a reflection type team to what we had seen forever in the Bronx. The NY Mets were the proverbial red haired NYC stepchild. A rep that Mets ownership had wanted to change, at least for awhile. So the Wilpons went out and wisely spent money on getting the veteran/proven players here that the Mets needed to get this accomplished with.
But if I remember correctly here as well, the only real risk player (one could say) was probably OF Kevin Mitchell. All the Wilpons moves at that time were basically very low risk due to those players already established higher levels of prior performance.
I would prefer using "just cash" to retain Nimmo, as opposed to trading prospects for his replacement (Reynolds). Granted, he's cheaper and signed for a bit, but can he handle NY? That is always a question, isn't it?
Bassitt commented about that when he was first traded to the Mets.....he did OK (outside of the last few starts).
I would keep the kids unless I could obtain a really good starting pitcher under control for a bit (not sure who that would be).
Mike, I agree - I'd prefer to keep Nimmo, and the kids, but it is to a degree out of the Mets' hands. Nimmo may choose Rocky Mountain Way.
Uniqueness in Approach. DOS
However, this low risk/high reward effort for this season's Philadelphia Phillies spending big did not pay off. And at the end of the 2022 season, they were 12 games behind the Braves and Mets at 103 wins. Yes, they got to the dance. But they did not show well once there and were beaten by a better Houston Astro team.
Sometimes money just does not solve everything wrong.
Here's my final 2023 NYM team construction that I like the most.
SP Max Scherzer, Carlos Rodon (a must sign), Tyler Glasnow, David Peterson, Carlos "Cookie" Carrasco, and in the sixth spot Josh Walker.
RP So far decided: Edwin Diaz, Eric Orze, Drew Smith. Need three more.
One of the best fielding and hitting regular starting eight maybe in MLB today. 1b Alonso 2b McNeil SS Lindor 3b Baty LF Vientos CF Nimmo RF Marte C Alvarez. This lineup has five potential All Stars going into the 2023 season.
DH possibilities: 1. Ronnie Mauricio, Dave Palka, Jake Mangum
Bench: INF Escobar, OF Mangum, INF Guillorme, OF Palka
What I like best about some of these ideas is that it takes into account some of this teams AAA best players who are recently developed from within and I believe ready for this challenge to begin their MLB careers.
To me, this is building a team without always having to count on outside the organization free agents every single season. If you build it right, they will come.
Learn something from this past 2022 Philly season.
There are no guarantees in baseball and no crying. So build wisely. Break the age old accomplished veteran "plug into" the lineup trend. It hasn't worked out one time here since 1986. Has anyone here a smarter way to build a true "dynasty type" of NYM team than from within? Yes, it is a combination of veteran and youth players. True. But if you draft, develop, and assess players correctly, dynasties can be built.
Why the older veteran free agent signings don't always workout so well once here?
A: Because the average 32 year old FA has already made his name and mark with other teams. The "motivational factor" that drives most good athletes, may not be as strong as it once was on an earlier team. It's Freudian almost.
Sometimes, an organization really does need to take a risk or two to make it to the big dance. Just look at the Braves in 2022. Who would have predicted that at this seasons beginning.
2023
The METSaverse begins now.
Every season is an amalgamation of risks that must be dealt with. Plenty this off season, and plenty of $$ to reduce risk.
You always have been
In the mail
Jim Callis published his top 30 AFL prospects. No Mets participants made the cut.
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