Last year was an interesting year for Mets fans. We enjoyed 101 wins, never suffered a long losing streak, and seemed to be destined for a long playoff run. The wheels came off late, and the mad scramble to fill some holes that had been there all year was unsuccessful. In retrospect, the call-ups of Brett Baty, Francisco Alvarez, and Mark Vientos were too late. Why did this happen and how would it have been handled better?
First, the team’s success got in its own way. We all knew that there was a DH problem, as the acquisitions of Darrin Ruf and Tyler Naquin failed to provide a reliable right-handed DH against lefties. Daniel Vogelbach got some big hits from the other side and did a nice job working pitch counts, but he faded late as well. The lack of hitting from the DH spot and the 3B position most of the season was overshadowed by the team’s ability to generate runs from the rest of the lineup and the pitching staff’s ability to hold down opposing teams.
With the team winning consistently with the lineup they had, it was easy to let the top prospects continue their development in the minors where there is less pressure to perform, less distractions off the field, and less formidable pitching to ruin a batter’s confidence. So the development continued deep into the summer and into the fall. When the call finally came for Baty, then Vientos, then Alvarez, they were thrust into a situation where there was no time to observe. They had to suit up, take the field, and perform. The race with the Braves had gotten very tight and now we HAD to win. None of the three excelled, and the season ended before it should have.
This was a very unfamiliar situation for the Mets. They have rarely had teams that were so successful that they could hold their prospects for further development. They have rarely had teams that were in a heated division race that created performance pressure on young players. Yet here they were, and the calls came too late, and the three prospects had their first taste of failure at the MLB level.
In fairness, I should note that Brett Baty was called up in mid-August and had some initial success with that bomb he hit for his first MLB hit. Injury kept him out during the heat of the divisional race. But with the other two, it certainly would have been better to get them some low pressure at-bats earlier, and to immerse them in the learning environment that the Mets had created with this team.
So what does the team do this coming year to get their top talent seasoned with MLB experience? How does this very deep team they have built in the off-season make room for their touted youngsters? There are going to be some difficult decisions when you have seasoned MLB players in utility roles and “ready” prospects on the doorstep of the big leagues. I think they are going to have to make room and pay the price for player development at the earliest stage when rosters expand.
Tough decisions, but a wonderful problem to have when it’s difficult to figure out how to play good players.
13 comments:
Paul
Steve's plan is quite confusing to me right now.
I applaud the fact that no chips were traded but there is no path for them to start this season
I am lost
The time to bring up (and play) the kids is a factor of 2 situations :
1) They must be ready ,as determined by team officials, not the fans.
2) There must be openings which they can fill. And there are no "low pressure" situations in a pennant race. If we were on the position of the Pirates, then that would apply.
Well, a lot depends on the outcome of the Carlos Correa situation. If the contract is signed and executed then the idea of not trading prospects might go out the window. There is no room for a Brett Baty with Correa taking over third base. Vientos still has potential as a DH and with McCann gone Alvarez will have a role as catcher after likely starting the year in AAA.
I am the contrarian. I think that between injuries ( they always happen) and the growth of Alvarez, you will see Alvarez, Baty and Vientos getting plenty of at bats this year, as Escobar and Guillorme lose at bats. At seasons end, going into 2024, Alvarez will get 500 PAs and Nido will go; Baty, Mauricio, and Vientos will absorb almost all Vogelbach, Escobar, Guillorme, and Canha at bats. Be patient. It will sort itself out.
That would leave the team with Alonso, McNeil, Lindor, Correa, Alvarez, Nimmo, Marte, Mauricio, Baty, Vientos, and Narvaez, with Parada andAlex Ramirez by mid-2024, along with Guillorme or Wyatt Young.
Collectively lethal. Lethal.
And Oca
Oca is the secret weapon, Mack, at least that’s the word from Danny Muno.
Tom you said Lethal and the Mets in the same sentence right? To me the big question is if the Correa deal doesn't go through is Uncle Stevie going to use our surplus for Ohtani.
All good thoughts. The great equalizer of course is competition. Spring training will be a brutal competition for spots on the 26-man roster as the new, the old, and everyone in between realizes that there are no free passes. May the best man win!
And players will have an opportunity to get many ST ABs, since many who are guaranteed to have spots will be playing in the WBC.
Is there such a thing in MLB, for designing a starting player field lineup card that works the best.
In other words, how many top-shelf "veterans" should a team ideally try to have (with 4+ years of experience), and how many rookies should a team ideally try to promote if ready each season to the starting field?
Interesting. is such a strategy even possible for balance and future development?
Although it is difficult to ever really predict future events and team needs because of unforeseen variables that can crop up almost out of nowhere. Such things as injuries and mid-season trades here for instance. But I have always tried to go about building an idealistic and balanced starting eight in the field, plus the DH batter in this way.
The formula employed that seems to work best (although obviously not a perfect science ever), is this one:
(5) established and All Star caliber veterans from within the team's own player development system or from outside the team astrades or FA's.
(2) of the best rookies from within the organizations AAA ranks the prior year.
(2) high-end caliber top free-agents to fill those one or two position holes that every baseball franchise has each season.
From this point, I try to fill-in the upcoming NY Mets '23 next season (9) players in all, to see how it coincides with my planned strategy formula above.
(5) High level veterans:
1B Alonso, 2B McNeil, SS Lindor, CF Nimmo, RF Marte All very good. All potential '23 All Star candidates. This is solid.
(1) Mid-level veteran: Omar Narvaez He's also been an All Star in his career and he has a stable Batting average with often power attached. So Omar is a sixth high level veteran player.
(Best in-house Rookie choices)
3B Baty and LF Vientos.
With a contingency plan of having Nido backup Narvaez, and either Francisco Alvares or possibly even youngster Kevin Prada, coming up the second half of 2023 if management deems one ready to.
DH: Mauricio/Vogelbach
In Mauricio you have a true switch hitter with a lightning quick bat. In this way, Ronny gets his consistent at bats in '23, and comes back in '24 to challenge for a starting eight positional role.
Tom, you and I are on the same page.
That is an interesting approach, anonymous. Formulas are difficult to apply in MLB because every team comes from a different place as spring training starts. Some are winners just a position shy of a title, others are complete rebuilds. Some have depleted farm systems and others are rich with prospects but short on all-star level veterans. Spring training becomes the ultimate try-out - the best performers have a world of opportunity in front of them; the least performers are scrambling to keep their dream alive. One can start with 5-2-2, but when the season begins, it has to add up to wins or the equation must change.
It will be fascinating to see how this shakes out by late March
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