R69 - So we left last
week with a couple of questions to ponder. We can probably cover them
both here this week and by next week there will be some new activity to discuss
that we don't even know about yet!
DJ - Yeah Cohen will probably have signed every remaining fa ( let’s get into Conforto next week who I think sure could be a solid 4th of - dh and platoon who sees 400-500abs) Also, it’s about damn time you started asking me questions, this is my second article ya know.
R69 – Ya know, I was thinking the same thing. . as the old guy here, I should be asking the questions! Thanks for the reminder.
So . . With the addition of both Jose Quintana and Kodai Senga to the rotation and the depth of Megill, Peterson, Lucchesi, and Hernandez, does that open the possibility of trading Carlos Carrasco? If so, what might that look like?
DJ - Oh great now you’re stealing the question I originally stole from you. To answer this we need to delve into the world of hypothetical trades which is the worst. So I refuse. Instead I'll answer your question with my own question. Why trade him at all? With two old aces and Senga, who is injury prone (do people know this?), I think there’s a better argument to keeping Carlos. Depth seems more important than ever right now. Can you remember where you were when Thomas Szapucki was shelled in San Fran? It takes a village of starters to get through a year and you hope it isn’t a village run by Robert Stock. I think the better question is, how about a six man rotation to protect them all?
R69 – A lot there to unravel, and you just hit a 450’ homer with it. Carrasco started 29 games last year, threw 152 innings, won 15 games, and made $12M. deGrom started 11 games, threw 64 innings, won 5 games and made $35.5M on his way to $185M. And you, (ok, they) want to trade the low priced guy that is going to make $14M and be the 4th highest paid starter on the team? Who knows if he will stay healthy or will have the year he had last year, but he showed he could pitch in New York. Keep him. That starting staff is looking pretty good to me. The only way I would trade him is for the same type of package that Pittsburgh is looking for for Reynolds – they would have to absolutely fleece somebody with a top 1 or 2 prospect and more.
DJ - Oh we agree - how
boring.
R69 - I am not sure about the six man rotation. I don’t necessarily hate it and I understand Senga only pitched once a week in Japan. However with the shorter outings by all pitchers – I don’t know about Senga, but Max and Verlander averaged about 19 outs per start, Carrasco and Quintana averaged almost 16 outs per start. I am thinking that with that reduced workload per start and the money they are making, once every 5 days seems doable.
DJ - Money aside I worry about the geriatric aces down the stretch and Sengas litany of injuries. So, it’s set, we are decided on 6 man- good.
R69 – Another idea is to carry more guys in the pen that can and will throw more innings. Get Carrasco through 5 or 6 and let Peterson finish it up. Get Quintana through 5 or 6 and let Megill finish it up (or in either case, at least bridge to Diaz in the close games). I am more of a fan of piggybacking the starts than a full 6 man rotation.
DJ- Wait what happened to our 6 man? What a silly idea this piggybacking is, but also I kind of like it. To me between Peterson and Megill I think one will shine enough so they can stick in 6 man rotation which we agree on. But the piggybacking long men is an interesting idea. Shows how much depth we have - till everyone gets hurt as per usual.
R69: We have spent enough time on pitching now, let’s take a look through the roster and see who you think is due for an upgrade in their performance for 2023 over last year and who you think might regress to some extent. Thoughts?
DJ - Well since this is the Mets I’ll just assume every one regresses and they finish behind the Nats (Is this even possible? Don’t answer). Ok Capable of better - Escobar. We saw glimpses of what he can be towards the end of the year. He’s obviously streaky but I think we see a couple more months like we saw in September. Maybe limiting his at bats, a good possibility if Baty sticks around, keeps him even keeps him fresher.
Regression - I think Quintana will take a step back. I worry that he saw a bit of luck in the last few years. He may out pitch his peripherals and the 4 seamer up in the zone may continue to lead to weak contact but most likely there will be a step back. The next one I’ll probably catch some heat for, but it’s Edwin Diaz. Relievers are fickle and while I don’t think we see 2019’ Diaz again (please god no), it just doesn’t seem humanly possible for him to be as good as last year. If he’s just 80 percent of that the Mets will still have the 9th locked down.
R69 – Most of your points are hard to argue with, but you must be out of your mind and not a true Mets fan to even think, let alone talk about Diaz having regression. Pure heresy. Relievers may be a fickle lot in general, but have ya ever heard of Mariano Rivera who never took a day off or had an off-day? The trumpet man is not going to lose his filthy stuff!
DJ - I know you’re not comparing Diaz to Mo. Yes Edwin had a brilliant year and has had others ones but he’ll have to do it for the next decade to be even close to the sandman - and some rings for that matter too- also he just might ?
R69 – Why do you think I don’t think he is in for regression? At the end of it all, Diaz doesn’t want to be known at the second best closer in New York!
Real quick for the rest: Pete had a great year in 2022, but I think he can be even better. It will depend on the top of the order in front of him. I don’t think Nimmo will have another 5 WAR year. I think he will be a solid player, well worth the money for at least the first half of his contract, but 5 WAR will be tough to top. It will be hard to get to 580 AB again.
DJ - I love Nimmo abs - love how he works a
count and saw more of that with Pete this year too, so I could see both
improving bc of approach.
R69 - I’m picking McNeil staying steady and Lindor getting even better.
DJ - Who asked you about steady ?
R69 - Lindor’s 2022 OPS was 28 points below his lifetime OPS. He will get back that .820 number in 2023.
DJ - Gotta tell you Lindor abs are not my favorite. I just don’t really understand his approach but I will not argue with his results last year.
R69 - Max will be better –
healthier.
DJ - I mean maybe ? He’s 62!
R69 - Verlander will be solid, but will have a tough time replicating his 18 win season.
DJ - He better be for 40 mill
R69 - Lastly, JamesMcCann will be better!
DJ - Hard to imagine McCann being worse but with Narvaez in town gotta assume something is brewing with our catchers and most likely a McCann trade for six balls and a fungo bat.
5 comments:
Diaz is great - time will tell for Senor Smoke.
Don't trade pitching period. Soon starters will go 3 to 4 innings and we'll need even more pitching as it's hard to believe where pitching has gone since the golden era of Seaver Koos Carlton Gibson etc. Throw harder get injured alot more and can you pitch 5 or 6 innings please its crazy and no one has figured this out yet?
Interesting discussion, particularly the part about the 6-man rotation. Cool concept, but I'm not buying. You have two Cy Young level starters in there that quickly right the ship if we lose a couple in a row. Don't want to wait 5 games to see Max or Justin again. Piggybacking the long relivers on top of a short start works for me. Nice to have a couple capable of successful long outings.
Why are you checking out Nimmo's abs? Is he not doing enough sit-ups? The guy has always been in terrific shape and is always self-improving. I'll bet a six pack that he will have another 5 WAR year!
Everyone is talking about a McCann trade and that makes sense because he just can't shake the pressure of playing in NY. He would do better in Texas because he's a good player. But the contract the Mets should shed in a trade is Escobar. Everyone focuses on his poor hitting for most of the year and then his remarkable turnaround late, but he turned in the 33rd worst defensive stats in MLB last year. In a 30-team league!! Save the $9.5M and make 2022 his swan song. Next song on the play list is new kid on the block - Brett Baty. Let him rock!
My Take On This
We all could see something special here with Edwin Diaz, probably right from the get-go really. I did. I saw was Edwin's amazingly good fastball, so lively and effective, so early on. I knew that he was just a work in motion, and that the sky was his only proverbial limit, once he mastered his secondary pitch/s. I am so glad the NY Mets brass saw this as well.
The Mets bullpen looks fine to me right now.
I do not see it as an issue heading into the 2023 season. It's deep enough, has new faces, and some old known too. It should be fine. I think the combination of Ridings, Raley, and Robertson will be key here, (The Triple R Boys of Summer) leading in to Edwin Diaz. I also view the NY Mets' starting rotation ready for the upcoming season. It has depth and alternatives for the 3 and 4 spots.
I view this 2023 NYM rotation, as even better than 2022.
The Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga moves were (to me) not just good ones, but stellar ones when you compare head-to-head compare Jake and Justin record, injury/health, and team contractual obligation wise. I also feel similarly here with the Chris Bassitt versus Kodai Senga comparison, although admittedly Kodai is somewhat of an MLB unknown right now. But that won't last long. For less money, the Mets got three years younger with more upside potential.
So then, what is this current team's weakness?
I am somewhat concerned with the general way that the Mets brass and its fan base are thinking about the outfield and the DH spot. Perhaps the NY Mets do need to start including within these thought processes, getting the team not only better at these two positions, but younger as well.
The current off season opinion here has been to build the 2023 NY Mets team for the right now. All New Yorkers want a winner right now, it's understandable. However, by having just a veteran overall player personnel squad with very established resumes, it does very much contrast to what the 1986 NYM Championship team was all about.
With that 1986 NY Mets team, you will find some instrumentally important good young players onboard as well. Like for instance here: Randy Myers, Kevin Mitchell, Darryl Strawberry, Dave Magadan, John Gibbons, Kevin Elster, Lenny Dykstra, Dwight Gooden, Sid Fernandez, and Rick Aguilera. All being just twenty-one to twenty-four years old. These players were in fact a really big part of this 1986 NYM Championship team. It was this "new wave" of Met players" that contributed handsomely to this overall championship efforsy just as much as their veterans Keith, Gary, Mookie, Ronnie, Doug Sisk, Timmy Teufel, Roger McDowell, Maz, Ray Knight, HoJo, Wally, and other veterans did. It was a cumulative effort, a fabulous team constructed perfectly of youth and veteran players, that drove this team to its unbelievable championship greatness.
That is why I have always said here, that a MLB team has got to always be considering not only for the here and now, but also for the tomorrows to come. I have always felt that a smart MLB team should always give as much opportunity and consideration to the franchise's best young rookie players coming up that have made themselves playing successes and may be in fact up to this major league challenge. It's well worth a try.
This is why I have always stressed this here with the current NY Mets MiLB players: Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio, Josh Walker, and Francisco Alvares. The very next NY Mets wave. And a very good one.
Anon . .(do you have a REAL name?) I agree with you 100% about their current pitching staff. I really like the top 5, the 6-7-8 depth and the bullpen is actually in much better shape than people give it credit for. People seem to have forgotten about Drew Smith, who, when healthy, is a vital cog.
This team is still not complete. I am worried about the outfield depth (or lack thereof).
I know a lot of readers and commenters here are touting Vientos as the right side of the DH platoon. I am not sold. I want my DH's to be able to take reps in the field - I don't think Vientos has a position.
I do hope Baty and Alvarez break camp with the Mets.
Lastly, they have a long way to go to get the composition of the '86 Mets. There just is not enough young pitching coming up. Matt Allan has to be back on the field this year and really show what he can do. I think Tidwell will move through quickly, but it will be at least two years, probably more, before there are enough young arms to talk about youth heading the pitching staff.
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