Reese Kaplan -- How Bad is the Payroll Situation Right Now?

Well, it's kind of hard to understand what it feels like to be a Mets fan feeling like a George Steinbrenner Yankee fan. The Mets lose out on a Hall of Fame type pitcher and replace him for half the price with another Hall of Fame type pitcher. Then to add onto the excess, they snag a very durable left handed starter, one of the top all time relief pitchers to set up for Edwin Diaz and bring back their centerfielder. Yeah, sometimes it's real good to reach into your pockets and find you have money available to spend.

The issue for Mr. Steve Cohen of the deep pockets and willingness to buy what it takes is that he's now facing a pretty astronomical payroll plus penalties for exceeding the $300 million threshold. Bear in mind, he and his Mets are not done yet. 

They still need to decide on whether they're rolling the dice on some combination of David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi to take on one of the regular starting pitcher roles, or will they continue the pursuit of Kodai Senga, Chris Bassitt, Carlos Rodon or others who will push that number even higher?

It's not just starting pitching that's on the incomplete list right now. They have a bullpen consisting of Edwin Diaz, David Robertson, Brooks Raley, Drew Smith and a lot of question marks. Having lost last year's quartet of Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Mychal Givens and Joely Rodriguez, they have a lot of innings after the starters leave the game that must be pitched. 

 Assuming the wildcard bunch -- Stephen Ridings, Zach Greene, William Woods, Tayler Saucedo, Elieser Hernandez and Jeff Brigham may not make up for quality with the quantity they represent. If they're after bringing back Ottavino or finding a similar pitcher who will cost north of $5 million per year then the payroll jumps even higher.

Of course, one of the primary criticisms from 2022 was the Mets' handling of the Designated Hitter position. Neither Dom Smith nor J.D. Davis took the role and ran with it. Midyear acquisitions Daniel Vogelbach and Darin Ruf were surprisingly an improvement but as you evaluate the DH role for the Mets and the other 29 clubs, they definitely would be in the lowest quadrant. 

The club does have some minimum wage options in Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez who could contribute, but a win-now mentality is more inclined to look towards an established veteran seeking a job like J.D. Martinez who despite having his run production numbers slide a bit is still going to want major bucks. Watch that payroll soar well past the $400 million mark.

Finally, there's the issue of bench players on this club. They have no spare outfielders unless that's how you classify Jeff McNeil if one of the 2022 starters needs a day off. Darin Ruf is not the answer. Daniel Vogelbach is a one trick pony (Clydesdale-sized edition). The spare catchers would be included here, too. Throw in Luis Guillorme as well. It's not exactly cream of the crop should an injury force one of the regulars to the IL for an extended period of time.

According to the Fangraphs site looking at payroll, the Mets currently stand with an obligation (along with arbitration estimates for the players in that category) of $322 million. That's just the foundation, however. Add to that other obligations that are calculated in the payroll accounting and you find it's much higher. There are the pre-arbitration eligible players to the tune of about another $5.7 million. Then there are payments due to folks no longer with the club like Robinson Cano, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt and Mychal Givens. 

The latter trio are for option buyouts. Cano is still due his salary from his contract. Together that aggregates another a hefty sum. Throw in benefits for players, salaries to 40-man roster guys not yet in Queens and a variety of other ledger line items and the calculated value of the payroll for 2023 today stands at $335 million. Anything over the so-called Steve Cohen tax limit amounts to a 90% penalty so that a new player who costs you $18 million per season in salary will now run you $34.2 million after that money due to MLB.

Right now the actual payroll is $40 million more than what it was in 2022. Is the team $40 million better? Wow, that's a topic in which fans, accountants and the Mets front office will have a WWE cage match weapon-aided debate. I think the simple answer is no. 

They have not addressed their open needs in the rotation, the pen, the bench and figured out how to integrate the hot hitting younger players who can provide cost controlled productivity for 5+ years. For as much as has been done already, the Mets are far from done in roster construction before visiting the palm trees in Port St. Lucie.