12/23/22

Reese Kaplan -- Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop


With New Year's Eve not that far off, most of us can probably recollect a time on that particular holiday (or an office party or a get together with old friends) when the beverages started flowing a little too easily and many of the details are lost in a haze of good times but not really remembering how you got to where you are now.

That feeling came to mind after reading the surprising arrival of Carlos Correa to the Mets already chaotic, wild and expensive off season. When the news came down that Correa had signed an immense contract for 13 years with the San Francisco Giants it seemed as if for one time this winter the Mets had lost out on one of their desired pieces. It is very different than Jacob deGrom packing up and flying towards Arlington. In that case the Mets were unsure how many innings deGrom could continue to deliver and how much money should have been spent to keep him around. Then a few days later landing Justin Verlander fresh off yet another Cy Young Award for a lot less money seemed to take all of the sting out of deGrom's departure. 

In fact, it turned more into a "wish him well" than "burn in Hell" kind of departure for the shortstop-turned-pitcher.

Of course, the other newcomers like Kodai Senga, David Robertson, Jose Quintana, Brooks Raley and most recently Omar Narvaez to accompany the returns of Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo and Adam Ottavino suggested that the Mets were going to be pretty sure to be able to replicate the 101 win season that fell short in 2022. I've been vocal about needing another bat, a resolution to the catching situation, more bullpen help and a significantly more productive DH output.

It seems as if you can't even prioritize these matters when things are moving as quickly in Metsville as they have these past few days. First came the arrival of Correa. No one needs a recitation of his stat sheet to know he is a remarkable ballplayer at just age 27 who should tie up the left side of the Mets infield for the next decade plus. 

 In his career which began at the ripe old age of 20, he's been Rookie of the Year, made a pair of All Star appearances, won a Gold Glove and twice was among the candidates for the MVP award. 

 He certainly fulfills the extra bat people were hoping to get, though oddly his home run numbers are not that much better than the man he ostensibly replaces in Eduardo Escobar. Where it matters most, however, is that if healthy he will drive in many more runs and provide a higher batting average with significantly better defense.


One of the many questions spinning in Mets fans' (and writers') heads is what becomes of Escobar with the addition of Correa? In Cohen dollars, he makes chump change but still you'd think a $9.5 million contract for a 20+ home run hitter coming off a poor season (except September) would be relatively easy to move. 

 The other thought is that he could become either the right handed hitting half of the DH combo, replacing Darin Ruf, or a full time DH as a switch hitter who could replace Daniel Vogelbach as well.

Then there is the unanswered question about the trio of allegedly ready minor leaguers Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez. The importation via free agency and trades of external players with stronger veteran pedigrees renders them somewhat moot. 

 Baty is not a strong defensive player, but he's likely capable of handling third adequately. The thought now is that he's going to have to learn to play the outfield since Correa and Francisco Lindor have his side of the infield no longer open for promotion.

Mark Vientos is considered significantly worse than Baty with the glove, so the feeling in many parts is that his future is as a DH and perhaps backup first baseman. He's had more time in AAA minors than Baty (400+ ABs vs. 22). If defense is pretty much taken out of the equation, then in a very odd way he makes more sense to ascend to the big club sooner than his left handed hitting counterpart. 



Baty will need to log many innings in his now assumed conversion to the outfield whereas Vientos really needs to concentrate more on adjusting to the new level of pitching and no longer sweating out playing the field.

The third rookie people have high hopes to see is catcher Francisco Alvarez whose hitting is drawing much higher accolades than his handling of pitchers. With two other catchers already on the roster and then the signing of free agent Omar Narvaez, it seemed that the already overcrowded fight for the tools of ignorance just got even more competitive unless the Mets dispatched one of their existing mask-wearers elsewhere. 

 Of course, on Wednesday the announcement came that the Mets dealt James McCann to the Baltimore Orioles for the proverbial Player to be Named Later along with 75% of his remaining $24 million in salary obligation. That change opens up one of the catcher slots for Alvarez, but at this point I'd guess he's still going to begin the year in Syracuse where he only spent 45 games this past season. 

 This ride upstate allows him to catch every day and also gives him the chance to adjust to AAA pitching which is better than the A and AA hurlers he demolished. If he starts the season in the majors struggling both with defense and offense it could be detrimental to his future as a major leaguer.

So right now while everyone is dancing, dizzy and celebrating with perhaps alcohol-fueled abandon about what the team has done, there's still work for Billy Eppler to do. As it sits right now the 40-man roster is full without the additions of Omar Narvaez and that former Astros/Twins shortstop. 

That means some players need to be dealt away in multiple for single player trades or cut from the team by being submitted to waivers. Once that work is done, then you will have the press conferences announcing the "official" addition of these new Mets players.

Right now in addition to fixing max roster size, Eppler and company need to address the perceived need for just one more veteran relief pitcher or hold that conversation with both Tylor Megill and David Peterson that they are the new Trevor Williams twins since the starting rotation is currently full. 

 Of course, things could change. In gestures towards reducing payroll obligation and tax debt the Mets could decide to depart with the final year obligation to Carlos Carrasco to open up the 5th starter position for someone earning significantly less money.

The club also needs to decide if keeping a guy like Darin Ruf around is positive in any way unrelated to the horrific 2022 experience. Mark Canha is on the final year of his free agent contract and could find himself on the trade block as well if the Mets pay some of his salary. 

 The problem there is that it leaves the Mets even shorter than they currently are in the outfield unless you figure that Jeff McNeil's future is in left. If so, then who plays 2nd base -- Luis Guillorme, Eduardo Escobar or yet another new face as yet undetermined?


Speaking of Guillorme, it was also fascinating to see the Mets pick up the released Danny Mendick from the White Sox. He was given a major league contract, not a minor league one and though he's rehabbing from an ACL injury, he will have to be added to the 40-man roster as well. Could it be that Luis Guillorme becomes part of a trade package to another club that will find his low salary, stellar glove and his ability to work the counts something they want in a starting infielder? 

 The Mets have a Gold Glove shortstop slated to play 3rd, still have Eduardo Escobar on the team and still have rookies Brett Baty and Mark Vientos. Mendick as a minor leaguer once hit 17 HRs and stole 19 bases in the same season while floating between 2B, SS and 3B. Could it be the Mets envision a pure backup role for a spare infielder and make the more visible and marketable Guillorme someone other clubs could covet?

As crazy and as happy as the offseason has been, it's not over yet. There are still things needing to be done. Once you get past the giddiness of the new arrivals, take a deep breath and think about the tasks that still need to be accomplished. Love him or hate him, Eppler is certainly earning his keep as GM.  

6 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Give Escobar an outfield mitt for now. Of course, it is not even 2023 yet, so much can still happen until pitchers and catchers. Exciting times.

Anonymous said...

How about this: vs Righties - McNeil LF, Escobar 2b and Vogy DH. Vs lefties Cahna LF, McNeil 2b and Escobar DH

Reese Kaplan said...

That platooning approach may work but I think they are tired of half-effort for full pay solutions. I am more inclined to think additional transactions will be taking place.

Tom Brennan said...

What will Steve and Billy do? Very intriguing.

Woodrow said...

I’m playing Guillorme at 2B as often as I can. McNeil in LF when righty pitches and Luis at 2B.

Tom Brennan said...

Woodrow, it will be interesting to see Guillorme duke it out with Mendick, who is also very good defensively, and can hit - he wasactually putting up a very productive 32 games last year when he tore his ACL. More power than Luis, and a decent on base guy. He does hit righty and maybe he will eat up some Escobar ABs.