What Would a Pete Extension Look Like?- PIITBlog by JD
With Brandon Nimmo’s extension in the rearview window (and as of yesterday Carlos Correa too!), it is time to think about the next core piece the Mets must lock up. Pete Alonso. Right now, the Mets have 3 guys locked up for life in Lindor, Nimmo, and Correa. It is time to add a 4th. Pete will not hit free agency for 2 more seasons and he will be 30 years old once he gets there. This contract would buy him out of his arbitration years. For reference, Pete made 7.4 million this year. This contract is not easy to figure out as there are very few comparisons in recent memory and the way contracts are now the numbers are extremely inflated.
Let’s start with comparisons. As I said, there are not many notable comparisons with Pete being a power guy who can also hit for a decent average. The last couple off seasons have been full of shortstops getting paid way above their pay grade or getting the years that takes them into their 40s. Seager and Semien got crazy deals for shortstops (neither can even play shortstop). Seager clocked in at 32.5 million AAV which was a massive overpay by the Rangers (who knows what they are doing over there). Turner and Correa were in the 27 AAV range and got the years to make up for the ‘lower’ AAV. Those guys play Shortstop (Correa will play 3rd) making it hard to compare to Pete.
Similar players that have gotten contracts recently are Olson, Goldy, and Freddie. Olson got 8/168 (21 AAV) taking him into age ~36 depending on options. Goldy got 5/130 (26 a year) back in 2019 taking him through age 36 as well. Freddie got 6/162 (27 AAV) taking him through age 38. Those guys are not perfect comparisons given age and situation, but they are as close as we can get.
Alright, now I want to try to predict this contract. A friend of mine heard Mets Assistant GM, Ben Zauzmer speak at Lehigh University recently and he gave us some insight into how teams value players. Many of the not analytically inclined simply take 1fWAR and equate to ~8 million. That’s it. For many teams there is no magic formula or factors us as fans can’t see. They simply take a players production in fWAR and convert it based on 1fWAR= $8 million. The Mets are not one of those teams according to Zauzmer. As we know, Steve Cohen has invested a ton of resources into building up the analytics department. Part of that department’s job is to determine a players worth. Zauzmer said the Mets use a series of predictive algorithms when assigning value in order to take into account what they will do instead of just what they have done. Zauzmer would not go into great detail about the Mets system.
This brings me to Pete. In my opinion, the second Pete gets extended the Mets should and will slap the C on his chest. He will be named the next Mets Captain. This could inflate his contract a bit but nothing too crazy. Given what we know about contract values and comparing Pete to the aforementioned players I am estimating pete will get between 25-28 AAV. I do not think it will go below that, but I could see it going up to 28 AAV perhaps. Pete is roughly a 4 WAR player, so according to how some teams value players he could command 32 AAV. I do not see this being the case and here is why. First, Pete plays first base RIGHT NOW. He is not a great defensive player and likely never will be. He does his job and I am all for it. I do see him moving to a full time DH role by his early-mid 30s. This takes his value down. Pete will be looking for a deal that allows him to finish or come close to finishing his career with the Mets.
I believe the Mets will be looking at a contract that is minimum 8 years in length and minimum $200 million (25 AAV). This is the baseline for me and I have no reason to think the Mets would not offer it. My final prediction after all the cards are dealt is 8/200 (25AAV). This will take him through age 35-36. This buys Pete out of his arbitration years. If the Mets offered this deal to him today, I believe Pete takes it in a heartbeat. And no, I do not think the Correa deal impacts Pete's. Let’s put pen to paper and get this man the C on his chest. LFGM
5 comments:
I've reached the point where I don't think ANY contract affects the next one as long as SC is running the show ....Go Stevie!
I really wish the Mets extended both Pete and Jeff McNeil, but Steve seems to be sending the signs that there is no problem in this area.
There is no one in the Mets system that is a first base prospect.
Come on guys....
Mack, Vientos or Baty could handle first base, but very few Petes come along.
I feel bad for McNeil. Missed almost two minor league years with multiple injuries. Otherwise, maybe he shows up 2 seasons sooner.
Cohen just might let him/them ride it out to free agency, then sign them big like Nimmo if still worth keeping. No extension for the moment. Every dollar added now is doubled with the tax. They may look to try to reset the cap so the penalty rates reset too, at much lower rates. That definitely will never happen if Cohen extends those two.
This might be heresy, but I think Freeman is a better player then Pete.
That doesn't mean I don't like Pete (I do and really want to keep him in Orange and Blue), but i would be surprised if his extension exceeds Freeman's. Goldsmidt is also an excellent player and one co old argue he is a notch above Pete, too (when you compare defense, speed, average, along with power). Just my opinion, of course.
I would put Pete a touch ahead of Olson, so in my estimation, Pete should be in the 22-25 AAV range.
Maybe 6 for 150 (with an option or two)? Or if it is longer, a bit lower on the AAV? 7 for 165??
Mike, I think you are talking apples and oranges a bit here with Freeman vs. Alonso, because there is one very big difference...Pete is 5 years younger and hitting his prime. Freddie is great, but will be 33 in 2023. and when does age start to reel him back in?
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