Reese Kaplan -- Unlikely Prospects Can Sometimes Surprise You

If you ever want to start a heated argument among Mets fans, ask them who was the best overall first baseman in Mets history?  Now this question is not strictly about defense, but also about what the player contributed with his bat.  To most fans and media types the answer will automatically come back current Mets broadcaster Keith Hernandez.  

While it's hard to argue with this selection, the fact is that as a fielder he was beyond compare.  However, as a hitter he was not really Cooperstown material.

There were some folks in this debate who would toss out the name of Carlos Delgado who had the run production capability that people automatically associate with someone who plays first base.  He could slug over 30 HRs and drive in over 100 RBIs while hitting at a respectable batting average.  As a first basemen he was adequate but nowhere in Hernandez's class.  Still, people are mostly brainwashed that a first baseman must be a cleanup type of hitter

Even today's first baseman, Pete Alonso, fits this mold in terms of RBIs and HRs.  He's setting records for how many balls he launches over the fence and how often he plates runners when the team needs it most.  His reputation was an subpar fielder but when you hit over 40 HRs and drive in over 120 RBIs people are willing to look past at best average fielding.  (They don't seem as willing to forgive a batting average threatening to make him into a shorter and less media hostile reincarnation of Dave Kingman).   

Perhaps being in an island all by myself I would always advocate the short term Met, John Olerud, put together the best overall work as a New York Met.  Are you furiously shaking your head in disagreement?  Let's have a brief look at the numbers.  

During his three years in Queens he hit .315, averaged 21 HRs and 97 RBIs.  While he didn't earn the trophies while with the Mets, Olerud was stellar defensively and took home three Gold Gloves during his career. 

So why bring up well-trod ancient history now?  We're living in the present and not the past.  Well today we're going to talk instead a little bit about the future and what it could mean for a man tearing up pitching in the Arizona Fall League by the name of JT Schwartz.  If you're not familiar with him, he spent 2023 in relative obscurity in Binghamton, playing 1st base.  He seemingly could always hit for average but wasn't blessed with long ball power.  

This past season he combined to hit .305 over 259 ABs across three teams with 4 HRs and 51 RBIs.  Now standing 6'4" you'd seemingly think a lefty swinging solid fielder like Schwartz could generate more power but it's never been a part of his highlight sheet.  

Even now in Arizona the batting average is up to an eye popping .349 and people are talking about him becoming a higher grade prospect in the near future, no one is projecting him for more than bench duty in the big leagues.  After all, hitting so few HRs he can't be of any real value, can he?  Or can he?

Let's take a minute to look back at Keith Hernandez's career and see what he was delivering not with his glove but with his bat.  For his long career he averaged 13 HRs, 83 RBIs and a .296 batting average.  Everyone was happy with that output.  It's quite respectable but even with 11 Gold Gloves on his mantle, it's not exactly going to usher him into a plaque in the Hall of Fame.

Now let's go back to Schwartz and look a little closer at his numbers.  If he had nearly 600 ABs this past season that run production would surpass 100 RBIs and the batting average keeps improving from .305 to .349.  Yes, he'd fall a bit behind in the home run department at 8, but the other numbers are quite impressive.  

Now many of us have seen the all-or-nothing hitters who either whiff or put the ball into orbit.  During the past steroid era game and the more recent and less enhanced past the long ball has become the predominant way of evaluating the worth of players.  Everyone knows, for good example, that Pete Alonso is about to step into a $25+ million per season long term contract.  

Still, every now and then the opposite occurs.  Back in 1985 Hernandez's former teammate hit .302 with 8 HRs and 110 RBIs.  It is possible to be productive without being a lugger.  Ask Tom Herr.

What happens instead to the high average hitters without much power?  Jeff McNeil was a late arrival.  Justin Turner was a late starter.  It seems that singles and doubles are not respected nearly as much as home runs.  

Right now no one knows what kind of player Schwartz will become but it's sorry to once again see him pushed down the list of prospects because he plays a position typically held by sluggers.  I'd like to see if he can become a .300 major league hitter which has become increasingly rare and then figure out how and where to play him.