10/10/23

Tom Brennan - Amazing HR/RBI Machine: Met (For Now) Pete Alonso


2020 and it’s truncated 60 game schedule messed up career season average stats.

So let’s drop 2020 and it’s 37% of normal length season, and see what the Pete Alonso-who-now-has-Scott-Boras-as-Agent averaged in his first 4 full seasons:

In those 4 seasons - 2019 and 2021-23 - Pete is averaging 44 HRs and 115 RBIs.

Keep in mind that prior to Pete, the highest Mets single season HR total ever was 41. 

So his 4 year full season average exceeds that 41 HR prior record total, only achieved by Beltran and Hundley, in the Mets’ first 57 seasons.

RBIs? 

He’s averaged 115; only Wright, Piazza, Beltran, Hundley, Ventura, and Gilkey exceed 115 in a season as a Met. And only Wright did it twice. They averaged 119, with Piazza and Wright second at 124 RBIs to Pete’s 131 RBI season.

And in 1996 and 1999, when 3 of those high RBI years by players not named Pete occurred, Lance Johnson (117 in 1996) and Olerud and Alfonso (230 combined runs scored in 1999) were run scoring machines boosting RBI opportunities.

And in 2006, when Wright and Beltran reached 116 each, the whole team was a high octane run-scoring machine, with RBI opportunities a-plenty.

Pete has not had that presence of explosive run scorers with the Mets, but has driven in that many runs anyway.

And…he is the only one in the top 10 to have driven in that many runs while playing in unforgiving Citifield, where Pete’s HR and RBI totals are barely more than 80% of his road output in HRs and RBIs.

All that said, Pete has been amazing, and his accomplishments forthe Mets should NEVER be taken for granted. This previously power-starved Mets fan and writer surely appreciates it.

His average this year is puzzling - my guess is he gets back closer to .250.

A lot of his batting average swoon, I believe, was his at bats after his IL stint, where he returned below 100% health.

May his remarkable output levels continue for years to come.

He recently picked Boras as his agent.  “Boras” in the Ancient Greek translates to, “You’re gonna make mega bucks, Dawg.”

Pete will get PAID.

14 comments:

Steve said...

is this a prelude to Mack's next Hot Stove question?

I guess you laid out the reasons to sign this home grown talent long-term. I do not see a near replacement to replace him.

Tom Brennan said...

Steve, they can roll the dice on Vientos. He got to the plate 233 times, a healthy serving, and a .253 OBP. Post-All Star break, .220/.261/.399. He would most likely be a big downgrade if he replaced Pete. My guess if he plated 150 games would be .225, 25 HRs and 65-70 RBIs. Or, 50 runs lost.

Tom Brennan said...

Keep in mind when observing Pere’s low average…he was hitting .231 on June 7 when the Braves sent him to IL with HBP. On July 19, after about 30 games following his IL stint, when he likely played under 100%, he was down to .203.

All to say that without that, he probably would have hit .230 with 55 HRs.

TexasGusCC said...

Tom, you forget that Shea Stadium was a pitcher’s park too, with the wind usually blowing in?

Mack Ade said...

You can't let a 50+ HR under 30 first baseman walk away when there is no one in the entire pipeline that can produce these numbers and play first

Come on Steve

Woodrow said...

Vientos? OMG who thinks he will even be a solid ML player? This is the replacement for Pete? The nats will beat them out for fourth place.

Paul Articulates said...

The Mets are blessed to have a first baseman that has prolific power, is a fan favorite, and has grace and humility when meeting with the press. That is very, very difficult to replace. So if it is that valuable, then it is worth the money to keep him. Speculation about who would play first next if Pete were to leave is fruitless - they couldn't be expected to replace what he is today.

Tom Brennan said...

Keep Pete

Sign Ohtani

Let’s roll

Tom Brennan said...

Haven’t been watching but boxscores indicate exciting games taking place. How much better do Mets need to get to successfully compete at that level?

Tom Brennan said...

Woodrow, I think Vientos at 1B in 2024 in 150 games would be minimum 25 HRs, 65-75 RBIs. Not terrible, but mediocre for a full time 1B.

Huge drop off from Pete who had he not been HBP in early June, might have been 55/140.

Math counts. Run differential needs to be decidedly positive to be successful.

Amazin Z said...

Keep Pete

Sign Yama and Montgomery

Sign Soto in 2025

Build the SP Staff this year and get the younger OF next year with the injection of all our young talent end of 24/ beginning of 25. Wildcard team in 24, challenge the Braves in 25.

Tom Brennan said...

AAmazin Z, sounds like a plan.

Gary Seagren said...

DS is still stinging from his trade of Hader in little old Milwaukee can you even imagine the blowup he lets Pete go.

Lou said...

I’m still thinking Vientos has the bat year of the 4 Baby Mets next year. Something like 240,20,65. Not to shabby.