So the worst kept secret in the world is the interview that took place this past week between David Stearns and his former employee Craig Counsell who is now a managerial free agent when his tenure with the Milwaukee Brewers came to an end on October 31st. Yes, there were stories about other options for the Mets such as Carlos Mendoza of the Yankees and Andy Green currently associated with the Cubs. Reports also came down that Mark Kotsay of the A's is on the radar as well.
When it comes to money, the reporting is that Counsell wants the Mets to at minimum offer him $7 million as a new annual salary which would represent a 100% increase over the ending deal with the Brewers. That figure, if accurate, is fairly reasonable given Counsell's track record, relatively young age and the amount of demand for his services. The rumored salary level prior to these reports was in the $10 million range, so $7 million would be a 30% discount below that amount.
What is concerning to folks following this soap opera is that if $7 million is indeed a real number then the Brewers might very much still be in play. It is easier to embrace the devil you know than to get familiar with a new one. It may seem over the top for Milwaukee, but they know what they have with Counsell and if he sets a new managerial salary bar then newcomers will be more expensive than they used to be, too.
Of course, with Steve Cohen's deep pockets a $7 million annual salary for say 5 years would amount to $35 million. It's relatively chump change given what you're paying for less productive personnel like Starling Marte for two more years. That threshold would not be an obstacle to a deal.
What Steve Cohen cannot control, however, is the set of priorities Craig Counsell has ranked for himself. For many people the prospect of living in the area where they prefer is at or near the top of the list. For others, the biggest salary offer is the primary factor in decision making. For still others, the specter of being in a major market with a formidable budget to establish a baseball dynasty is alluring. What Craig Counsell revealed in his interview isn't necessarily the same thing on the Excel spreadsheet containing his weighted order of attributes on making a final decision.
As a reminder, Jose Reyes took the top dollar before the Mets seriously had the inclination nor opportunity to make a counter offer. The flip side of that is Joey Votto not having his $20 million salary paid this year in order to provide a hometown discount to his employer, the Cincinnati Reds. Most decisions are not quite so clear cut at one extreme or the other.
What should concern Steve Cohen, David Stearns, the media and the fans is who is ranked number one as Plan B if Counsell chooses either to remain in Milwaukee or to take another opening elsewhere that for whatever reasons seems more appealing to him. The Andy Green candidacy doesn't make a lot of sense given his poor track record. Mark Kotsay falls into the same category though his extensive playing career buys him some added points for understanding what it is the people he'd be managing need to hear.
While no one is real happy about first time managers who have to do a lot of learning on the job (remember Mickey Callaway and Luis Rojas), experience is no guarantee of success (remember Terry Collins). Carlos Mendoza has an interesting background and buys you a ten-year age advantage over Counsell but he would come with more risk.
Word is out from some beat reporters that the Mets are expected to name a manager by week's end. It would seem that the current cast of characters is likely it. The likelihood of finding someone new and adhering to that time frame is woefully thinner than Daniel Vogelbach.
So if it is Counsell, that should be a good thing. If it's not Counsell, the relief of folks who feel he's not ready for the bright lights and intense media of New York, but the alternatives aren't exactly scintillating. If the rumored time frame is accurate then we'll all know soon enough.
7 comments:
We will have to manage our expectations this week. That said, my first question to a candidate would be: how do you feel about strategically drilling people and HBP retaliation? If the answer is the same as Buck’s, show Walter immediately to the door.
Current chatter has Counsell staying with Milwaukee if they match whatever the Mets offer.
I understand it if this happens.
What matters to me is the Mets get the whole manager hiring thingy done during the GM meetings this week.
There is so much more to do before opening day, especially if this teams is targeting 2023.
(If it's 2024, take Frankie Goes To Hollywood's advise)
I think when you consider all the important things Counsell and his family have going in Milwaukee, he stays. He is just using the Mets to get a much better deal.
If the Mets are potentially going with a manager with no experience, why not consider Carlos Beltran?. He is smart, knows the game, can handle NY and is already working for the Mets.
Where is Wally Backman when you need him?
If I am Counsell, given the current geopolitical climate and with what might be a dangerous 2024 pre-election, I’d stay in good old safe Milwaukee, not Geopolitics Central NYC. His choice, of course.
The Brewers can’t match Cohens offer.
With Uncle Steve’s deep pockets and working under a familiar GM may sway Counsell from his hometown team. The Mets probably have a better chance to offer a World Series opportunity. The Brewers will always be a smaller/mid market payroll. Is just making the playoffs the max for the Brewers over the next 5-6 years? Not saying we will be in the WS but being able to sign the top FA’s and knowing $$$ is no object to make this team the best it can be has to be enticing. I guess we’ll find out by Friday.
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