11/28/23

Tom Brennan: Fangraphs Mets Prospects; "Draft Miss" Tidbits

 

"HEY! WHERE'S MY GUY ON THIS LIST?"

Before I start:

Rumors, I've heard a few

But then again, too few to mention

OK, TO THE ARTICLE…

Fangraphs is a truly impressive website. 

It has SO much data on all teams.

It actually ranks many dozens of prospects for all 30 minor league teams, including the Mets.

Interestingly, in one of its data troves, it ranks the prospects in overall MLB order.

So, for instance, a Brennan favorite, Rhylan Thomas, is not in Fangraphs' MLB Top 100... or 200... or 300... or 400 ...or 500 ...or 600.  

Nope, he is # 603.

But, since there are 30 teams, divide that 603 by 30 and he is a top 20 prospect on an average MLB team.  Which is close to where I have him after his fine, first, full season, hitting .328 with solid defense.  

Paul Articulate's guy, JT Schwartz?  They have JT at MLB # 758!  

But, divide by 30 and you get #25 on an average MLB team's prospect list.  Pretty fair ranking, I'd say.

Both should climb in 2024. But Schwartz is not (yet) grading out as a Pete alternative.

Scary on this list, if you are a Mets maniac, is Kevin Parada. Fangraphs has him all the way down at #1003.  Divide that by 30 and you get a 33rd overall prospect for your average MLB team, which likely means that his defense and high K rate of concern to Fangraphs rankers.  

Not at all where you want the 11th overall draft pick of 2022 to find himself on this baseball-wide list.

I personally like Quick Nick Morabito a lot, but they only have him at #1,427, which is 48th in an average top 50.  Fangraphs, while wonderful, can make mistakes, is my guess!  Kidding aside, I expect Nick the Quick to jump 1,000 slots in the next 12 months. 

There are also inexplicably some bloopers in their list (e.g., DJ Stewart, Baty and Vientos, and others who are now gone, are in it.).  I think this tells me the list I accessed was last updated right after the July 31 trade deadline, at least that is my guess.  

Tomas Nido is listed as the Mets' 102nd "prospect", an unenviably poor ranking!  (Likely, he was included on the list in the first place because he was in the minors in August). So, you Nido lovers may wish to chew on that dismal assessment for a bit.

Joander Suarez was 93 slots above Nido, at #12, so that is interesting.

Joey Lucchesi # 82 round? No respect at all for 4-0, 2.89 as a Met Joey.

Fangraphs’ list also excludes recent draft picks, so the list clearly needs updating.  I imagine they will do so soon enough, and when they do, I will pass that list along - if I remember to look for it.

Of course, adding the draftees in would push Nido to # 110 or lower.

Anyway, here is an excerpt of a few columns from the top 105 Mets on their list.  The list was longer, but I stopped there.

Column B is the overall MLB rank in their database.  

Column A is my calculated rank, where I divided their ranking by 30 to get what would be a Mets-only ranking (highlighted cells were their highlights, not mine).

Whaddya think of the extracted list?

A

B

C

1

18

Luisangel Acuña

1

24

Ronny Mauricio

2

45

Jett Williams

4

108

Drew Gilbert

5

157

Dominic Hamel

8

227

Ryan Clifford

8

234

Blade Tidwell

9

261

Christian Scott

9

282

Jeremiah Jackson

10

308

Brandon McIlwain

10

313

Rowdey Jordan

12

355

Joander Suarez

12

357

Wilfredo Lara

12

359

Tyler Stuart

14

434

Danny Mendick

15

451

Carlos Cortes

16

481

Paul Gervase

17

508

Mark Vientos

17

520

Mike Vasil

18

545

Nate Lavender

19

565

Luke Ritter

19

574

Felipe De La Cruz

20

603

Rhylan Thomas

20

610

Jacob Reimer

21

618

Jonathan AraĂşz

21

619

Alex RamĂ­rez

24

707

Wyatt Young

25

758

JT Schwartz

26

769

Matt Rudick

26

776

Saul Garcia

26

778

Stanley Consuegra

26

789

William Lugo

27

813

Jose Peroza

28

838

Douglas Orellana

29

873

Junior Tilien

33

1003

Kevin Parada

35

1057

Robert Colina

36

1073

Wilkin Ramos

38

1141

Marco Vargas

38

1153

Kevin Villavicencio

40

1189

Daniel Juarez

40

1205

Trey McLoughlin

42

1250

Mateo Gil

42

1253

Justin Jarvis

45

1342

Luis Moreno

45

1363

Layonel Ovalles

47

1404

Brendan Hardy

48

1427

Nick Morabito

48

1430

DJ Stewart

49

1472

Benito Garcia

51

1544

Joe Suozzi

52

1569

Ronald Hernandez

53

1591

Jefrey De Los Santos

54

1614

Yeral Martinez

56

1667

Cameron Foster

57

1722

Jordany Ventura

59

1759

Brett Baty

63

1879

Dylan Tebrake

63

1894

Eric Orze

64

1907

Jimmy Loper

66

1967

Vincent Perozo

66

1978

Yohairo Cuevas

66

1994

Eli Ankeney

70

2094

Tyler Thomas

70

2110

Nolan Clenney

70

2114

Jace Beck

71

2126

Karell Paz

71

2134

Joshua Cornielly

74

2215

Josh Walker

76

2275

Coleman Crow

77

2317

Hunter Parsons

82

2474

Joey Lucchesi

83

2494

Jordan Geber

84

2516

Jaylen Palmer

86

2593

Dedniel Núñez

87

2612

Drake Osborn

87

2622

Michael Perez

90

2705

Diego Mosquera

93

2793

Ernesto Mercedes

93

2802

Yonatan Henriquez

96

2889

Omar De Los Santos

96

2893

Candido Cuevas

99

2973

Jesus Baez

99

2976

Reed Garrett

99

2984

William Woods

101

3037

D'Andre Smith

102

3062

Tomás Nido

104

3127

Willy Fanas

105

3135

Wilson Esterlin

105

3143

Andinson Ferrer


DRAFT TIDBITS FROM  TIMES PAST:

As my next subject today, in 2008, Mets drafted Javier Rodriguez 68th overall, and he never got past Low A. 

# 96 that draft year? Craig Kimbrel.  You know, the guy who is 49-42, 2.40, 417 saves, 1,192 career Ks in 757 career innings.

The # 100 selectioncwas strikeout-prone Kirk Nieuwenhuis. 

No doubt, the Mets definitely pick Kimbrel at # 100, if he’d slipped by the Braves…right?

After all, their love for power draft arms shows no bounds (sarcasm here).

Maybe the Mets will sign the 36 year old Kimbrel for their pen this year. 

I vote YES. Steve Brennan is all in for Kimbrel.

The fact that he hit 12 opposing batters in 190 innings over the past 3 years makes me want him more, frankly. 

Toughness is valuable. 

And Kimbrel is tough.

Also, the Fangraphs prospect ranking above has previous year 5th rounder d’Andre Smith as the Mets’ #101. 

101 is better than 201, I suppose, but not meaningfully. 

101 objectively is not good. Tells me he is a MLB long shot.  

Heck, they have him ranked below extreme K machine speedy hitters Jaylen Palmer and Omar De Los Santos. The latter 2, in 2022 and 2023, fanned 625 times in 434 games. 

Palmer, though, was a 22nd rounder in 2018, a worthwhile gamble in that round - fine tools, and flaws in the tools sometimes can be fixed.

D’Andre Smith was drafted by the Mets in round 5 instead of a “112 steals Cardinal with 80 speed” named Victor Scott, a subject I discussed several days ago.  For that draft pick, folks excused the Mets’ pass as “the draft is a crap shoot, it happens.” I call it horrible decision making, the same sort of bad calls that had them pass on the great Craig Kimbrel 15 years ago. 
You have a guy available with 70/80 grades, you pick him.

Repeat after me: 

Draft Power Arms, Power Bats, Power Speed. 

Skip guys without those attributes in early rounds.

28 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

When you draft really well, you can help avoid the “should I spend $500 million on this guy, or $600 million on that guy?” questions.

Tom Brennan said...

Time flies: Steve Matz turns 33 in May. Mets signed him out of high school. Doesn’t feel like 14 years.

Mack Ade said...

Interesting shite

I believe Stuart should be ranked much higher on your list

Also the level of talent falls drastically after the first 10 listed

And three were obtained via trades

Hope these new nerds do their job better than the old nerds

Reese Kaplan said...

One of the things I'm hoping most for the new front office and coaching administration is that drafts will improve significantly.

Mack Ade said...

I saw there was a home run derby down south yesterday and Vlad only came in #2

The winner?

Alvarez

Mack Ade said...

Also

Pete was at the Ranger game last night wearing a t-shirt:

"New York or Nowhere"

Remember1969 said...

As far as the prospects go, good stuff here. And like all player and prospect rankings, there will always be some differences here. As you pointed out, this list was probably generated mid-year. There are a few whose stock has risen from their listed ranking.

Remember's Random thoughts:

Nate Lavender is definitely higher on my list.

Danny Mendick is a been there, tried that .. too high

Carlos Cortes was promising a year or so ago, has lost luster.

Personally I put both Gilbert and Williams ahead of Acuna (slightly).

Interesting that Hamel is higher than Tidwell, Scott, or Stuart.

Paul Gervase is probably right for the time the list was generated, but I sense he'll find some helium in the next poll.

And yes, I also like Rhylan Thomas. His power numbers will keep the reins on him forever. I really like his game as it is, and I doubt he'll ever develop the power that everybody today seems to want. I saw him a few times in Binghamton and he really puts together the good at-bats, particularly when they are needed the most. I don't think I ever saw him fail in an extended rally where they needed the 8 and 9 hitters to 'keep the line moving'. He excels in those situations.

Mack Ade said...

Tidwell remains in my top 5

TexasGusCC said...

Tom, you have to look at their Big Board for updated rankings. Houck is #10, Sprout is #14…

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board?org=nym

TexasGusCC said...

Just by seeing Brett Baty at 59 on your list tells me that something is wrong… and Mendick was never a Mets prospect… something is definitely wrong. Go to the Big Board instead.

My “wow” is Willy Fanas is #38 and Simon Juan isn’t even listed.

Mack Ade said...

Here's my spin

A lot of these so called expert sites are one 19 year old type writer.giving you his or her opinion. Nothing more.

I value none of them

I rely on the results on the field

Tom Brennan said...

Gus, I will look at that updated big board. They do have great data, but you’ve gotta really search for some stuff.

Paul Articulates said...

Great research and interesting list. FanGraphs likes data, so the rankings are always going to depend on recent trends. This would explain why Parada is so low, because he did not hit well in the Arizona Fall League. Schwartz also struggled a little at the plate in AFL after a hot start, explaining why he is a little lower than expected in the rankings.
What I find curious is the rankings at the top. It looked like Gilbert and Williams out-performed Acuna in the late-season Rumble Ponies run, yet it was Luisangel on the top of the ranking. They must have listened to Tom about the "power speed" piece!

Rds 900. said...

Bunch of bananas if you ask me.

Tom Brennan said...

Paul, the new Fangraphs link that Gus shared has Gilbert, Alex, Acuna, Mauricio, Parada, and Williams, 1 thru 6. Hamel at 19.

Crow at 20, Allan at 35, and Scott and Stuart at 43 and 46? Nah.

No Gervase in top 50, despite 96 Ks in 57 IP, and 2.05 ERA? Nah.

Tom Brennan said...

And 27.3 year old Dedniel Nunez at 21?? Nah.

Tom Brennan said...

And no Lavender in top 50? Nah.

Mack Ade said...

Like I said

Gen-z bullshite analytics

Ain't never seen an anal lytic hit one over a fence shortened or not shortened

Woodrow said...

The Baby Mets were a major bust last year. Let’s hope they bounce back his year and that Baby Mets Pt 2 do better than them.

Tom Brennan said...

I like my Top 35 Prospects (from about a month ago) better than theirs

Anonymous said...

Mack, I would love a job like this. Just read what everyone else writes and draw a conclusion. Don’t bother going to see a game. Keith Law tells you if he saw a player or is going by reports from others.

A story:
Several years back the Arkansas Travelers with a .700+ winning percentage were coming to Corpus Christi to play the Hooks. I don’t watch much minor league ball, but the Travelers were the team that Kelenic was on and I wanted to go see this kid for myself. On a Tuesday night, I went but he didn’t play. The next night the Hooks were pitching Forrest Whitley and I knew all the top prospects would play to see how they match up. Well, Kelenic couldn’t touch a curveball if his life depended on it. I wrote a piece on Mets360 (I have video online) about that game and said that this kid was not anywhere near ready for MLB. He crushed fastballs from others guys, however.

I saw most of their kids, and fell in love with Cal Raleigh on sight. He threw bullets down to second and had tons of power, you could tell.

There was this other top prospect, Kyle Lewis, who turned me off immediately. He didn’t run hard on a grounder to second and even though it was bobbled got thrown out, and didn’t kill himself getting to a hit that was rolling up the gap. He did have a strong arm in right field however. But, I didn’t like him. Guess what? He won rookie of the year and I wondered what the heck was wrong with my judgment. Then, he sucked; bad! He is now on his third team, and hitting the interstate.

TexasGusCC said...

That was me again…

Tom Brennan said...

Here for comparison is my top 35 (and a few others past 35) from an October article:

1. Jett Williams IF/OF

2. Drew Gilbert - OF

3. Luisangel Acuna -IF

4. Ronny Mauricio - IF/OF

5. Kevin Parada - C

6. Blade Tidwell - RHSP

7. Dominic Hamel - RHSP

8. Christian Scott - RHSP

9. Mike Vasil - RHSP

10. Nick Morabito - OF/IF

11. Jacob Reimer - 3B

12. Nate Lavender - AAA

13. Paul Gervase - RHRP

14. Wilfredo Lara, SS

15. Tyler Stuart - RHSP

16. Rhylan Thomas - OF

17. JT Schwartz - 1B

18. Joander Suarez

19. Colin Houck - SS

20. Ryan Clifford -1B

21. Stanley Consuegra - OF

22. Marco Vargas 18 year old IF

23. Jeremiah Jackson - SS - AA

24. Brandon Sproat - RHSP

25. Calvin Ziegler - RHSP

26. Julio Zayas - C, age 17, in DSL

27. Rowdey Jordan - OF

28. Jefry Rosa - OF - led the entire DSL in HRs. And there are 50 teams in the DSL. And he only played 39 of his team's 54 games!

29. Wilkin Ramos, 22 year old RHRP

30. Anthony Baptist - DSL - CF:

31. Heriberto Rincon - CF - DSL:

32. Jeremy Rodriguez, SS in DSL.

33. Daniel Juarez - LHRP

34. Alex Ramirez - CF - High A - bad season, I lowered him. Take out that 6 for 6 game and he hit .210 in his other games.

35. Trey McLoughlin, AA reliever.

TexasGusCC said...

The link is on the bottom of the article and still works:

https://mets360.com/?p=40230

Remember1969 said...

That brings back the memories of all the teeth gnashing and end of the world proclamations from the most famous (infamous) trade of the BVW regime.

Who here would now trade Diaz for Kelenic straight-up?

If we want to talk about poor trades, I anticipate that the PCA for Baez trade will go down as a far worse one.

Tom Brennan said...

Never trade a guy named Pete, Pete Rose might advise.

Anonymous said...

Any system that has Ramirez at #34 has to be loaded. They must be doing something right.

Tom Brennan said...

I put Alex down at #34 for the reason stated: “ High A - bad season, I lowered him. Take out that 6 for 6 game and he hit .210 in his other games.” He either just had a very bad year, and should remain a top 10 ranked prospect, or was highly overrated by many.” Stanley Consuegra, his outfield teammate, had a much better season.