I recently did a post on my Top 35 “productive” prospects.
Today, let’s focus on a subset of a subset.
First subset, the top 25 of those 35.
And, secondly, only on pitchers in that top 25.
OK….This is where I ranked the 10 prospect pitchers that fell amongst my top 25 prospects (e.g. Blade Tidwell was the 6th rank prospect in my Top 35 prospects).
(The other 15 (by process of elimination) are hitters, not discussed in this article.)
My emphasis in ranking these 10 hurlers was weighted by their 2023 production. Maybe that production, or lack thereof, would have relatively little to do with their long term success. But, often, success builds upon success.
So, if you had to rank them, as David Stearns has to when formulating strategy, how would you rank these 10, 1 thru 10, and why? Partial or full answers are fine.
Bigger question, to narrow things down a bit:
Which 5 of the ten do you think will have the biggest positive impact for the Mets by, say 2026? And what do you see their ultimate achievement will be? (Top end starter; back of rotation starter; etc.)
6. Blade Tidwell - RHSP - Binghamton Rumble Ponies - Tidwell pitched very well in Brooklyn, struggled a bit in AA with its less forgiving home park and superior hitters. I expect a strong Tidwell 2024, and for him to be ready to be a big league starter in 2025. Future? Middle-to-back-end rotation guy, with a chance at being better.
7. Dominic Hamel - RHSP - Binghamton Rumble Ponies - he was frankly lousy early in 2023. He was frankly superb later in 2023. I think he is on his way, with a 2025 arrival time. Mid-to-back-end-of-rotation guy for the Mets.
8. Christian Scott - RHSP - Binghamton Rumble Ponies - dealing like an ace in High A and AA in 2023. With his control, he could beat Tidwell and Hamel to the Mets. Future mid-to-back-end-of-rotation guy.
9. Mike Vasil - RHSP - Syracuse Mets - he is ahead of the prior 3, found it rocky in 2023 there. I think he improves a lot in 2024, and makes his Mets debut during the season (maybe early, with Peterson out for a while in 2024 already). How good will he be? I'm guessing a Peterson-type fringe starter, until he proves he is better than that.
12. Nate Lavender - AAA lefty reliever, and first reliever in the list, he performed exceptionally well and fanned over 13 per 9. ERA under 3.00, way below his teams’ ERAs. Definitely NY-bound in 2024, IMO.
13. Paul Gervase - RHRP - Binghamton Rumble Ponies - Higher K rate than Nate, and a minuscule ERA. This 6’10” dude fanned 20 in his 10 inning AA debut. What does THAT tell you? Queens ETA 2024.
15. Tyler Stuart - RHSP - Binghamton Rumble Ponies - Stuart was death to South Atlantic League hitters in 2023, and did OK briefly in AA. The 6’9” righty was on the IL down the stretch. He is currently listed, thankfully, as "active", and an Oct. 10 Anthony DiComo article mentioned Stuart without reference to any injury, so Stuart presumably will be ready to go in 2024. In 2023, he tossed 111 innings, and ended up 7-2, 2.28. Hopefully, he merely reached an unwritten innings limit.
18. Joander Suarez - Binghamton Rumble Ponies - Suarez was lousy through early July 2023. Period. The second half, though, was much different for Suarez. He had an absolutely brilliant stretch of several games in AA late in the year where he was almost unhittable. In fact, in 6 of his last 7 season starts, he tossed 36 scoreless innings and allowed a mere 7 hits. And that was after a strong 4 game stretch in mid-July where he fanned 32 in 24 innings. allowing just 15 hits. Strong second half control (a walk every 5 innings).
A Jake-like 1.98 ERA in the second half, and just a HR allowed every 18 innings this year. I took a leap and slotted him in at # 18, to see if a little more consistency and 2024 success jumps him into the top 10. I'd not be surprised if he got called up as a bullpen arm in 2024.
25. Calvin Ziegler - RHSP - just 1 IP late in the season after injuries in 2023, in which he delightfully fanned 3. That was after not many innings in 2022, BUT high potential. If healthy, top 10 by mid-2024? Why not?
Where’s Justin Jarvis, you ask? Not in my top 35, thanks for asking. Feel free to add him to yours. He does fan a lot of guys, but his high 40 minor league HRs allowed in 260 innings over the past two seasons was a sign of Dylan Bundy HR Syndrome, a debilitating condition that is difficult to cure.
HAVE AT IT, READERS.
23 comments:
My pitcher ramkins;
1. Tidwell
2. Stuart
3. Lavender
4. Scott
The rest... meh
Morning, Mack.
I’d add Ziegler as my # 5. Can’t argue with your first 4.
I would love to know where the 10 guys I listed fall in MLB’s top 300 pitchers.
I do think also Gervase is a wild card. He feels like another Brad Wieck.
Brad who?
Allan will make a miraculous recovery this year and be in the discussion
I agree that Tidwell is the top ranked among them. He may not be statistically the best as he works on refining mechanics, but I saw a mental toughness in him that will be a difference maker when everything else levels out. When he is in a jam, he bears down and gets outs. Several times I watched him strike out remaining hitters when runners got in scoring position this past year in AA. With improvements in delivery and mechanics and maybe focus, those runners won't be in scoring position as much.
Don't go to sleep on either Vasil or Hamel. Vasil got promoted very quickly up to AAA, so although he struggled a little there, he is learning fast. Hamel came in to last year on a roll, but ran into some adversity early. He worked through it and became a better pitcher by season end. I expect a great year from him in 2024.
Actually, I cannot argue with Mack on his first 4. I like the fact that Hamel figured something out mid-year. Gervaise is in the mix to break into the top 5.
So.
Tidwell
Stuart
Lavender
Scott
Hamel
Gervaise
Suarez is still on the outside looking into that window, but I like the guys that turn it around in the middle of the year like that.
Allan? Last pitched in 2019. That would be miraculous. Bring on the miracles. Add de Oca to that list.
Hamel certainly came on stronger late in season. He needs to accelerate. I think he will.
Vasil did have to deal with the tiny strike zone - but so did Lavender, more effectively. Mike V needs to burp out that 2023 hiccup and get fierce in 2024.
Ray, Brad Wieck was an equally tall Mets farmhand, who was traded to get the guy from San Diego with the big hat, whose name I can’t remember. Wieck went on to pitch in the majors and struck out close to 90 guys and 60 innings, until recent arm problems, so, Gervais is a similar high strike out, somewhat high walk, pitcher of very tall stature. Of course, he’s a righty, and Brad was a lefty. Brad looked like he was going to be a very good relief non-closer pitcher until his arm injury.
Ray, big, Bad Brad fanned 460 in 326 minors innings, too.
Ray, Wieck first missed time due to an irregular heartbeat in 2021, then had TJS July 2022.
Now 32, he should be ready to return to action in 2024.
I happen to think both Hamel and Vasil have Peterson and Megill ceilings
Stuart has mad skills potential.
Suarez to me is an aberration
Are we to believe he was a crappy pitcher his entire pro career and then wakes up as the second coming of Bob Gibson?
(would that make him Roberto Gibson?)
A lot of talent! Who will be in the rotation in 2025? This team might be a juggernaut in 2025.
Rule 5 protection deadline today will give us a clue as to the Mets opinion. I expect many pitchers added and do not expect Alex Ramirez to be added.
I would add all the AA starters and Vasil. I take no one for granted.
Mack, Suarez (off the top of my head) had several injury setbacks including TJS. Just 107 innings from 2018 thru 2022. I saw enough in 2023 not to doubt him, but he still has a lot to prove in 2024. He’d have to be added to the 40 mensch roster, to Gus’ point.
Lou, we thought the Baby Mets would be juggernauts. Baty and Mark V were not. So, the pitchers have a lot to prove in 2024.
It feels like it'll be a miracle if he ever throws a pitch before we give up on him and he ends up with 3 CYs in Georgia. 😝
Agree on the top 4. Maybe not in the same order. Tidwell, Scott, and Stuart all have the stuff to be #3 SP’s and can fill out our rotation in 2025 when Quintana leaves and replace the Luchessi, Megill, Peterson. I could see one of the 3 prospects being trade bait this Winter or trade deadline. No room for all of them in the 2025 Rotation.
Lavender is our future 7 inning or set up man and will be in the Pen this year. Gervase has that ceiling as well but has a little more work to do in the Minors. If Ziegler (with his injury history, height, and wildness) can’t get back to being a SP he could end up being a good RP with his stuff. Same for Allen.
Ramirez will be added , it’s a no brainer!
You were right, and he was added.
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