“HEY! WHO STANDS OUT WITH A BAT IN HIS HANDS”?
First, a report in from Bill Metsiac, bearer of good news:
“JD Martinez played today (Sunday) for St Lucie:
* 4 PA, 1B, 2B, BB. If no setbacks, could play in Queens next weekend. 🤞”
Bill will be providing copious updates. We’re counting on you, Bill.
Now, to my article:
I took an early look at hot pitchers in an article last week.
Nothing like a hot burst out of the season’s gate as a harbinger of great things to come.
Of course, when things look sunny in Metsville, you always wait for the bad news. See that cloud over there? The dark one? Look closely, it says "Mets" on it, in fine print.
How is this for really bad news?
Calvin Ziegler? Tommy John surgery. There goes his 2024 and most likely 2025 season.
What did Ziegler do in 2023 and 2024 on the mound?
Just 7 innings, but zero hits, 2 walks and 14 Ks - man, what a shame.
OK, enough on pitchers.
It’s the hitters’ turn this week.
I waited a week after the pitchers' article for more meaningful hitter numbers. Three teams now have 15 games played, and Syracuse has 20 games in the books.
Who’s hitting like Rose, Carew, Ruth?
Or like...Ruth Buzzi?
Five guys impress me. In RED.
I’m focusing mostly on top 30 prospects (both from the Mets’ and my own top 30 lists. Here goes with 23 such Mets guys.
AAA:
Mark Vientos - technically post-prospect status, due to his few hundred Mets plate appearances to date, but he is being treated like a prospect, or he wouldn’t be in AAA, so here goes: a superb .343/.432/.586 with an RBI per game? And he’s still in AAA because…
L.A. Acuna - after a 5 for 38 season start in global-warming-refuting temperatures, Luis has gone 10 for his last 33, with 7 of 9 in steals. His one HR came on opening day.
Drew Gilbert - after a 1 for 12 start in sub-zero March temperatures, he goes 5 for 13 with 2 walks in early April, then the dark cloud showed up. He “slightly” pulled a leg muscle. Anthony DiComo reported on April 7 that it was a mild pull. He had a solo HR on opening day, and no HRs or RBIs after game one. Hopefully, he is back playing somewhere on Tuesday (today), as the slight pull has had him out for two weeks after the injury, so far.
Ronny Mauricio - a man familiar with the Dark Cloud, Ronny is hanging out in rehab city. His favorite Frankie Valli song is "See You In September."
AA:
Alex Ramirez - .320/.352/.460 in his first 13 games.
JT Schwartz was 4 for 8 and an RBI in spring training. So far, .270/.413/.469 in AA games. I’m waiting for the break out, once the icicles melt upstate.
Jett Williams - just .179 so far in the frigid Eastern League for the 14th overall pick of 2022. But 8 walks in 11 games gives him a .360 OBP. When the wind chill rises above 30 degrees, I will expect more.
Kevin Parada - just .211 so far in the frigid Eastern League for the 11th overall pick of 2022. But 10 walks in 12 games gives him a .392 OBP. When the wind chill rises above 30 degrees, I will expect more. His 3 errors, 5 passed balls, and just 3 of 20 caught stealing are a little off topic, but not good.
Rhylan Thomas - the poor man’s Rod Carew, who was the 329th overall pick in 2022 and gets insufficient respect while hitting so well, is at .340/.404/.447 after 12 games. Hot or cold, he’s hot and hotter.
Jacob Reimer - the IL Dark Cloud visited Jacob - a pulled hammy injury. In early April, the report was he'd return in early June. That's quite a pull. Not my idea of a pull hitter.
Matt Rudick - back from missing more than half the season in the second half of 2023 with a Dark Cloud injury (he was the Eastern League's best hitter up until early June last year), Matt is hitting just .147 in 11 games.
HIGH A:
Ryan Clifford - he has overcome a cold start and sits at .240/.415/.380, with 13 walks and 21 Ks in 15 games.
Stanley Consuegra - Stan the Man II .229/.339/.292 with 18 Ks in 13 games.
Wilfredo Lara - .200 in just 20 ABs.
William Lugo - just .122 in 13 games, but 13 walks give him a .339 OBP.
Junior Tilien - just .156 in 13 games.
Nolan McLean - he is not a top 30 hitter, he is there due to his pitching acumen, but he has ferocious power when he makes contact. He's 7 for 20 (.350) with 1 single, 4 doubles, 2 tape measure HRs and 11 Ks.
Besides the above 6, Gil, Pregent and De Los Santos are hitting between .156 and .182. All these sub-.200 performances have Brooklyn as a team hitting .198. Not good.
LOW A:
Ronald Hernandez - 13 games, 9 for 44, but also 15 walks. .400 OBP.
Nick Morabito - .333/.475/.500 in 13 games. He needs a promotion.
Jesus Baez - .283/.348/.450 and just 5 Ks in 66 PAs, which is truly outstanding for the strikeout-happyFSL.
Colin Houck - the first rounder from 2023. 9 for 51, 19 Ks, 9 walks.
Marco Vargas - he is 2 for 8 and a walk. Still 18, maybe they are holding him back for the FCL, which starts May 4, to not rush him?
Chris Suero - not top 30, but the catcher/IF has had two amazing games, one where he went 5 for 5 and one where he walked all 4 times up.
No one above is hitting like Baltimore AAA top 10 in baseball Heston Kjergard, who is hitting .350 with a slug % close to .800 and THIRTY RBIs. Mark Vientos is fairly close, though.
And there, as always, are Mets minors guys who are just not hitting. Mostly a subject for another day.
LASTLY:
“We added depth to the minors system; we are SO DEEP”. So, the minors hitters are savaging their opponents, right? Wrong. The Mets minors NEVER hits. Really?
Well, Syracuse is in a 20 team league, and is 19th in runs (87 in 19 games), 16th in average (.234); just 17 doubles (median team has 39); tied for 7th with 25 HRs; and 15th in BB. (It doesn’t help that veterans JiMan Choi and Yolmer Sanchez miserably are just 16 for 97 with 2 doubles and no HRs.)
Well, Binghamton is in a 10 team league and is 8th in runs (60 in 14 games), 5th in average (.249); 9th in HRs (8); and 4th in BB.
Well, Brooklyn is in a 12 team league and is 11th in runs (47 in 15 games); 10th in average (.198); 9th in HRs (8); and 4th in BB.
Well, St Lucie is in a 10 team league and is 4th in runs (78 in 15 games); 5th in average (.219); 9th in HRs (3); and 3rd in BB.
Noticeably absent in all those rankings are being in the top 3 of ANY offensive category, other than St. Lucie being 3rd in walks.
In fact, walks at the levels below AAA are pretty strong on a combined basis, indicating perhaps that part of the sub par hitting numbers may be an organization-wide strong emphasis on learning how to work out walks so, for those hitters fortunate enough to make the majors, they will not be eaten alive by precise MLB corner-hitting pitchers who will also have expertise at getting hitters to fan on balls out of the strike zone.
Lastly, the bottom 3 level teams have played 44 combined games, with just 19 HRs, less than 1 every 2 games.
A disturbingly low number a) even when considering the weather at 3 of the 4 levels is inhospitable to hitters, and b) when considering the arch-nemesis Braves hit two HRs per game at the MLB level in 2023.
What do you think, folks?
15 comments:
2 hits Alonso, 2 hits arte, everyone else no hit. Ugh.
The Mets’ sad reality is the Braves (15-6) and Phillies (15-8) have decided to not lose again until after the All Star Break.
Gilbert out for longer. On April 6th, in a game that was 47 degrees and windy, he was injured after beating out an infield single. He felt discomfort, but foolishly stayed in.
Then, on a wild pitch, he ran to second and was then was taken out of the game for a pinch runner
At the time, Anthony DiComo of SNY, said Gilbert’s injury is a, “mild strain of his right hamstring.” Beware of frequently over-optimistic initial injury assessments.
Gilbert was stupid to stay in. The team was stupid to let him stay in. His mild strain is now expected to keep him out until around Memorial Day.
You see, you can’t become a better hitter without staying healthy and actually playing. It is a lesson Nimmo learned.
Will the reckless Gilbert learn? He played only 10 games in his debut year in 2022 because he got hurt running into a wall. Missing 6 developmental weeks in 2024 could set his path to the majors back by months.
Just for the record, Gilbert and Acuna homered on opening day. Since then, no HRs and 4 RBIs between the 2 of them in 88 combined at bats. Sounds like 2 can’t miss prospects to me, how about you?
A month into the AAA season on Wed, April 24, the forecast reads like this: Light rain early. A mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon. Snow may mix in. High 52F. Winds NW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
But be of good cheer, as 5 days later, it is expected to hit 80 degrees there.
Something has got to change. Continuing to have poor results system wide is not acceptable.
Ray, I agree.
I just did a Parada vs Rhylan Thomas comparison.
Parada has 92 at bats in AA, career, and Thomas has 98.
Parada is 18 for 92 (.194), with 14 walks and 37 Ks. Not good.
Thomas is 34 for 98 (.345j with 12 walks and 11 Ks. Excellent.
Parada was the 11th overall pick. Thomas was the 329th.
If you had to do it again, who would you draft first?
Another good analysis, Tom. One thing that bothers me so far in our minors season is that, as a group, it seems like all of the "top prospects" that we reaped last July add up to a major flop.
Gilbert, Clifford, Acuña, Vargas, Ron Hernandez, Jeremy Rodriguez, Jeremiah Jackson, and Justin Jarvis were supposed to be stars that would lead us to a bright future.
Someone so far has forgotten to turn off the dimmer switch.
As for JDM, he played Sunday and got 2 Hits + a walk. Depending on how his back felt the morning after (yesterday), he was supposed to DH for 'Cuse tonight and tomorrow, then hopefully meet the Mets in Flushing this Friday.
Since then, I can't find any info on his back or whether he's with the 'Cuse team. It's about non now, so I guess we'll find out in 6 hours or so.
Bill, I wouldn’t sour on Vargas, Rodriguez, or Hernandez, I like those 3. All 3 are so young.
And averages are averages. Clifford’s hitting was brutal his first 7 games. Since then, 9 hits, 7 walks in 8 games with “just” 9 Ks. And, of course, he is hitting better on the road than in the middle of a Cyclone. And he is still 20.
I am skeptical as to whether Acuna and Gilbert, due to their shortness, will ever be more than mediocre Mets.
There were a couple of mentions of the cold weather impacting performance. I can identify, having played in some very cold weather myself- it is not fun.
However, the playoffs are held in cold weather (at least for northern teams), and we can't have folks fall apart because their hands are ringing after contact. Mental toughness brings a player through cold weather - must build that in our players.
I'm not souring on any, but I expected at least a few of them to get off to a good start.
A positive note on the Zeigler situation-- a full year from now, when he should be fully healed from the TJ, he'll still be just the age of a recent college grad, so we can think of him as a '25 draft pick.
paul, I hear you.
But I would, to address cold, do a few things: a) shorten the season calendar (delay season start a week), by adding 6 scheduled doubleheaders, to eliminate one early week; b) only day games until around May 1; and start on the road of what normally are the warmest cities in hat league for the first week. It may toughen players up, but it shrinks batting averages.
I agree, but doesn't it equally affect pitchers, balsncing the effect?
Bill, I’d think not as much. Pitchers are constantly active on the mound.
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