2/2/25

MACK - MY Sunday Observations


 Good morning.


 The Mets signed 2B/3B Nick Madrigal to a one-year contract

$1.35M with a chance at $500K in performance bonuses

9.4% career K rate

One MiLB option year remaining                    

8-DRS (defensive runs saved) and an OAA of +7 at 3B in his career. Possible late inning replacement for Mark Vientos

    I wasn’t sure I was even going to report this one. The last thing I expected the Mets to be spending late money on is another utility infielder. This screams to me that Ronny Mauricio will probably not be ready, and Jeff McNeil may be reassigned to left during the period that Brandon Nimmo still needs to speed up. Just guessing, but at least one of these is probably a good guess.


The fan thingy happened on 1-25 and the comments and videos of Mets players were all over X.

I walked away with two distinct points:

      SNY Mets      @SNY_Mets

      Carlos Mendoza says Luisangel Acuña will have a "huge role" on the       

      2025 Mets

 

      Keane      @kranepool

      David Stearns mentioned that Kodai Senga is healthy and ready to go, in fact Jeremy Heffner is in Japan working with him

 

First of all, you would never say either of these things if they weren’t true.

Acuna playing a “huge role” means he will not be sent back to Syracuse. Because of roster restrictions, this pretty much puts a lid on a Candelita return this spring. Does he start at second? Will he be the super infield utility guy? Details to follow, but he will be around.

As for Senga, again, you don’t say somebody is healthy only to find that person coming to camp on crutches. I still believe he has a lot to prove before we should all call him the Mets ace, but a healthy Senga is going to make it a lot easier to put together a winning rotation.

 

My predictions as to which team will open up with the Mets top prospects:

AAA – Syracuse:  Brandon Sproat. Ryan Clifford, Jett Williams, Brett Baty, Drew Gilbert

AA – Binghamton:  Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Douglas Orellana, Christopher Suero, Jesus Baez, Nick Morabito

A+ - Brooklyn:  Jack Wenninger, Eli Alkeney, Ronald Hernandez, Boston Baro, Carson Benge

A – St. Lucie:  Daiverson Guiterrez, Nick Roselli, Jeremy Rodriguez, Yonstan Henriquez, Simon Juan, Willy Fanas, Jeffry Rosa

Rookie – FCL Mets:  Yovanny Rodriguez, Christopher Larez, Edward Lantigua

Rookie – DSL Mets:  Elian Pena

 

Mets Relief Pen 

The return of Ryne Stanick may have put the lid on the 2025 pen staff. The Mets will be paying him $4.5mil for one season.

Complete 2024:  -0.6-WAR, 7-3, 4.88

Mets 2024:           -0.2-WAR, 1-0, 6.06

2024 Playoffs:     3.38-ERA, 7-apps,

Final 12 2024 apps:  2.92-ERA 

        Thomas Nestico      @TJStats

        Ryne Stanek (signed by NYM) is a stuff monster with an electric fastball and    wicked splitter. He is extremely productive at generating whiffs in the zone but his effectiveness is hampered by his command issues 

Stanek, Edwin Diaz, A.J. Minter, Dedniel Nunez, and Jose Butto are keepers in my 2025 pen. That’s five. Need eight.

Reed Garrett, Sean Reid-Foley, Huascar Brazoban, Tyler Zuber and Max Kranick will compete this spring for the two opening day slots in the pen.

Is this now a great pen? I wouldn’t say that. What it will say it is now one of the top 15 pens in the game. Great accomplishment by David Stearns after starting off this off-season so naked out there.

 

1-28-25 –

Keith Law’s Three Top Mets Prospects –

            RHP Brandon Sproat

            “He works heavily off a four-seamer that’s been up to 99-100 and sits 96-97, while his best pitch is a slider that’s above-average to plus depending on the day; he’ll throw a decent change, a curve and a two-seamer as well,” Law wrote. “It’ll always be control over command, as he’s so aggressive that it’s hard to foresee him ever toning it down enough to be precise with his locations.

“He’ll have to do a little bit of refinement to make the last leap to the majors, as hitters will hit your stuff, no matter how good it is, if you put it on a tee for them. He has some similarities to Edwin Jackson, a huge stuff guy who was more of a No. 4 starter for most of his career, although I think Sproat has better control than Jackson did at the same age.”

 

            IF/OF Jett Williams

            “It’s a compact swing combined with very good ball/strike awareness, and he could be a high-average/high-OBP second baseman with 55-60 defense, which would make him a solid or better regular,” Law wrote. “His 2024 season was just a lost year, and while he can’t get those at-bats back, it’s also possible that we’ll have to just disregard what he did do when he played because he wasn’t 100 percent.”

 

            IF Ronny Mauricio

            “He’s just way too aggressive at the plate, chasing off-speed stuff out of the zone at a rate that’s not going to be sustainable for a major-league regular – which is why the loss of a year-plus of plate appearances was so damaging for him, as he needs to work on ball/strike and pitch recognition, and the best way to do that is by playing,” Law wrote.

“I’ve said before he reminds me a ton of Alfonso Soriano, who had similarly electric wrists, never figured out shortstop, and wasn’t anything close to ‘patient’ at the plate, but improved his approach enough to hit 412 homers and play 16 years in the majors. That’s a best-case scenario for Mauricio, and probably more unlikely after the injury.”

 

1-29-25 –

Just Baseball - Top 10 Third Basemen in Major League Baseball for 2025

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/top-10-third-basemen-in-major-league-baseball-for-2025/

9. Mark Vientos, New York Mets

2024 Stats: 111 G, .266/.322/.516, 27 HR, 71 RBI, 133 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR

Staying on the topic of projectable young talent, Mark Vientos may just he the third baseman the Mets have been looking for for years now.

After a 68 wRC+ season in 233 plate appearances in 2023, followed by a start to the 2024 season in Triple-A Syracuse, Vientos defied all expectations when he got the call in 2024 and became one of New York’s best offensive pieces.

Of all Mets hitters with at least 400 plate appearances last year, Vientos’ 2.9 fWAR, 133 wRC+ and .837 OPS were second to only NL MVP runner-up Francisco Lindor, while his 27 HR were the third best tally, trailing Lindor and Pete Alonso.

Among MLB third baseman (under the same 400 PA parameter), he ranked third in wRC+ and OPS and showed off the power abilities with a second ranked SLG.

He’ll look to complete his first full season in 2025 and build of a stellar 2024 regular season and an unbelievably clutch postseason, where he belted five homers in 13 games and posted a 178 wRC+.

And you want to make this guy a first baseman now?

 

1-29-25 –

Daniel Wexler          @WexlerRules

Baseball America names Jonathan Santucci as Mets sleeper prospect for 2025. 

A sleeper prospect is one that didn’t make an organization’s top 10 and was not one of their “breakout” prospect picks for a team

 

4 Mets make ESPN’s top 100 prospects

#34 Jett Williams

#62 Brandon Sproat

#67 Ronny Mauricio

#84 Drew Gilbert

 

1-28-25 –

Will Francisco Alvarez Become the Slugger the Mets Dreamed Of?

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/francisco-alvarez-breakout-become-great-hitter-mets-imagined-2025/

According to FanGraphs WAR, New York Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez has been a top-10 backstop in the sport over the past two seasons. He has produced 4.9 fWAR in 223 games. Yet, he has barely scratched the surface of his monstrous potential.

Alvarez has provided the majority of his value behind the plate. Specifically, he has demonstrated an aptitude for stealing strikes. The metrics at FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Prospectus all agree he’s been one of the more valuable pitch framers in the league.

Framing is one of the most valuable (and most overlooked) skills in the modern game. Just look at Giants catcher Patrick Bailey.

Just Baseball recently ranked Bailey number five on our list of the top 10 catchers in baseball despite his career .640 OPS and 79 wRC+. Why? Because he’s miles ahead of every other backstop when it comes to earning extra strikes.

Alvarez isn’t quite on Bailey’s level, but thanks to his excellent framing, FanGraphs ranks him as the 12th most valuable defensive player at any position over the past two years. That’s remarkable progress for a young player who wasn’t often considered a plus defender during his prospect days.

Boy… everybody seems to be getting on the Alvy train.

 

1-25-25 –

Ben Weaver     @weaver_cards

Jonah Tong, 21 y/o, NYM, RHP, #17 in system

Split time between A, A+, AA

K% - 34.2%

BB% - 10%

GB% - 45.2%

IP - 113

++ FB and CB

Seems Jonah continues to impress this spring in camp. I’m tellin’ ya… watch for this kid to move fast through the chain this season

 

Jim Koenigsberger          @Jimfrombaseball

 “Barry Bonds? I’ll tell you what, if Bonds hit a home run off Bob Gibson or Don Drysdale and stood and admired it, they’d knock that earring out of his ear the next time up.”

National League Umpire Doug Harvey

 

Billy Wagner was just voted to the Hall. He pitched in 903 innings in his career,  over 16 big league seasons.

      And Billy Wagner was a right hander until he injured his arm, severely. So, he taught himself to pitch left handed and became a Hall of Famer.

21 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

That Billy Wagner story proves that a pitcher’s career need not be over if he develops both arms overtime. Me? I don’t think I could ever have learned to throw with the other arm, but Billy proves it is possible.

Alvarez on the cusp. Keith Law’s critique of Sproat seems fixable. Just like Alvarez was fixable.

Madrigal is an interesting get. Seems Iglesias a long shoot return after that. Nick will be cheaper. And 7 years younger.

Mack Ade said...

I was born a lefty
But I was Northern Irish stock and my maternal grandmother demanded I be changed to a righty. Something about a lefty being the devil's child

So I wound up:

Throwing righty
Writing lefty
Shooting lefty
Bowling righty
Hitting for average righty
Hitting for power lefty
Shooting pool lefty

Ya know... fukd up

Tom Brennan said...

I fortunately escaped that lefty nonsense, and stayed lefty. I did have a much more level swing as a righty, much more power as a lefty. I learned to work an adding machine in public accounting with my right hand. Trying to do that with my left hand never felt normal. Basketball? I had MUCH better ball handling as a lefty. Odd how all that works.

Mack Ade said...

Basketball pure righty

TexasGusCC said...

Greeks think the same.

TexasGusCC said...

The Madrigal signing was a pure “let’s take a shot” signing. Anytime you can find a guy that doesn’t strike out much, he has a chance. Problem is his exit velo’s suck. We all hope Baty doesn’t turn out the same, meaning a failed top draft pick.

It’s interesting that some sites have Drew Gilbert still as a top prospect and others have him down the list.

TexasGusCC said...

The more I think about it, the more I find it hard that Alonso can play for the Mets. After hard balling him but giving the guy standing behind him almost a billion in pay and benefits, I don’t think it would be good for the guy to come to New York, nor do I think he would be able to handle it psychologically.

Mack Ade said...

Currently I'm low on Gilbert and project Benge or Williams as the future centerfielder

Mack Ade said...

I too find it hard to project how awkward it would be for him to now walk into the ST clubhouse

Gary Seagren said...

Pete has burned his bridges and agree tough return now. I just wish i felt better about our starting staff because forget LA were not even the top staff in our division. We all trust DS (don't we?) to mix and match as needed going forward but we're a much different team now than the one who finished in the NLCS last year. Love Acuna getting a real shot and crossing my fingers Alvy makes the adjustments necessary to be the player we want him to be because w/o Pete we need the 25HR version badly.

Eddie from Corona said...

Why is humbling a Guy a bad thing?
Alonso may be upset but it was his doing
And while it’s tough how often will he be thinking in the first inning
Man this at bat cost me x millions

I really hope tong and sproat are real
This farm system is weak in my mind built on wasted 1st round picks
You say we will never be built in the draft again and the dodgers find gems as they haven’t drafted in the top rounds
Baseball draft is truly the worse with how volatile it is

Mack Ade said...

I too wish they had one more great starter

I'm not sure what the Mets difinition of "real shot" is re: Acuna

Alvarez must even out his offensive output, especially if Pete doesn't come back

Mack Ade said...

Eddie

Right now, I can't see any Mets minor league player being a factor in 2025

Remember1969 said...

So much good stuff here . . i'll add my $0.06 here a few at a time (damn tariffs .. they are even costing the commenting more)

(1) Madrigal is a guy that I had my eye on about 4 years ago. I love the K rate, but I don't see much use for him now. Especially as a right handed batter. They need a lefty on the bench.

(2) If Acuna is going to have a huge role, why sign Madrigal? There just isn't enough room on the roster.

(3) Senga: I don't have any reason to doubt that he is healthy. He was healthy for the playoffs - just really rusty. Give him the sunshine of Florida and 6 weeks to get ready and he will be there. I look for a 2023 type year from him.

(4) I have no alternate opinions on any of your prospect placement positions, except possibly Baty who, if Pete does not re-sign and they don't get another first baseman (Torkleson, Mountcastle, Casas), I can see Baty getting a good shot at being the regular guy there for at least a couple months.

(5) Relief: I need Alka-Seltzer after this winter. But yes, I agree with your first 5. I think Garrett is pretty close to a lock. I also see the last two being at least one of and probably two of Blackburn, Canning, and Megill. That leaves SRF out at the start. Injuries and ineffectiveness will play a part.

Somehow I see this year's pen being more stable than that of the last few years, although the depth is certainly there. Brazoban and Kranick are both sleepers to be very valuable pieces.

(6) I can't argue much with those prospects, especially the way they are written up. I am pretty close to done calling Mauricio a prospect and am not quite as high on Williams as others might be. I still put him in our top three for now.

My hope for the end of 2025 is for Tong and Benge to be in this list, probably with Williams. I would like to see Sproat graduate to NY sometime this summer.

(7) Top 10 Third Basemen - #9. I really hope that Vientos is the real deal and does not regress in a full season. As the roster sits now, he is 'the man' to hit behind Soto and help maximize the value of that huge contract. If Vientos doesn't hit, Soto is not nearly as valuable in the lineup.

I too, want Vientos to remain at 3rd base this season.

(8) Jonathan Santucci as a sleeper prospect. OK, got not much else. Boston Baro might be another, not sure if he is on the BA breakout list.

(9) Alvarez. I really don't care that much about the pitch framing. Alvarez needs to hit on offense and just catch the ball on defense while throwing out runners (which a lot of is on the pitchers) at a league average rate.

(10 Jonah Tong. Without being a professional (or even an amateur) scout, I see Tong as the real thing, perhaps even leap-frogging Sproat in either getting to the majors or which spot in the rotation. I can see Tong being a #2 guy.

I believe that K rate is actually a little high. Who doesn't want to see pitchers punch out a third of the hitters? Well, I guess I don't, especially if that ground ball rate is near half. Get more ground balls on the first or second pitch and save the arm. The stress of the strikeout pitch has screwed up a lot of pitchers. Learn to pitch without having to get that K. Tom Seaver had a career K rate of 6.8 per 9 innings. He had a pretty good run.

Remember1969 said...

I am not sure Pete was the only one burning the bridge - this thing was on fire from both ends.

Mack Ade said...

Wow

Thank you for your thorough response

That Adam Smith said...

Good morning Mack. I do look forward to your observations every Sunday.

I think Madrigal is purely depth/insurance and I don’t think his signing has any impact on signing/not signing Iglesias. Barring multiple injuries, I don’t see Madrigal coming north as the only backup IF on the roster. He’s really a corner guy who can play a little 2B, and he can’t hit. I think their big decision is whether to use Acuña in that role out of the gate (costing him the regular AB’s he’d get in AAA) or whether to sign someone like Iglesias (better hitter, can play SS). IIRC, Mendoza has used that line (“he’ll have a huge role for us this year”) about other guys they were sending down but expected to see again. I’d guess that if they’re going to use that roster spot on a guy who can play 2B but isn’t really a SS, the guy who is already in the org who has the best shot to fill that role (if not Acuña) is Jared Young. I fully expect that McNeil starts the season as the regular 2B.

I’m excited about Vientos’ upcoming season. Solid BA and OBP and 27 HR in 11 games at age 24? I won’t be shocked if he hits 40+ this year.

That Adam Smith said...

That should read *27 HR in 111 games*

Mack Ade said...

I think Candelita is a dead issue

Mack Ade said...

I like the 27 in 11 much better

Tom Brennan said...

Tong Terrific still applies.He is on a rocket heading up.