When it comes to strategy to win ballgames there is power, small ball, pitching, defense and in-game decision making. No single element will triumph every time but combinations of them can baffle opponents when executed with aplomb.
On the question of power, the Mets have a pair of 40 home run hitters in newcomer Juan Soto and returner Pete Alonso. Both have demonstrated the ability to put the ball out of any stadium with ease when the need arises and together they will rival the Aaron Judge/Juan Soto pairing enjoyed in the Bronx in 2024.
However, there is more power in the Mets lineup than this elite pair. Late addition third baseman Mark Vientos was on a pace for nearly 40 home runs and if you add in his post season bombs he was at 33 in less than a full season’s worth of ABs. Now pitchers will adjust and Vientos needs to do the same, but he demonstrated elite power hitting ability as well.
Then there was the odd season produced by Brandon Nimmo. His batting average was way down as he fought plantar fasciitis but his home run and RBI numbers hit all time highs. Most folks would probably accept a return to the .270 or thereabout batting average in exchange for some run production, but if Francisco Lindor is going to be leading off then Nimmo is more necessary as a guy who drives baserunners across home plate.
Speaking of Lindor, let’s not forget his 30+ home run power. Not too many shortstops in the game can deliver that kind of offense. His RBI numbers will be down as a leadoff hitter, but the power is for real and must be factored into this aspect of home run hitting.
When it comes to small ball, the Mets have the aforementioned Nimmo whose previous best asset was his OBP. In addition, you have Jeff McNeil who is a contact hitter. The DH combo is more contact on the Starling Marte side than on the Jesse Winker side, but there are indeed a trio of folks who can help move the ball around.
Pitching is going to make or break this club. Last season they got unexpected good performance from now departed Luis Severino and expected competency from now departed Jose Quintana. They received amazing pitching from David Peterson and better than expected results from Sean Manaea. They lasted the entire year without Kodai Senga yet somehow survived. This year they have Clay Holmes joining Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga and David Peterson. That’s four out of five. Frankie Montas was envisioned as the 5th of that group but his lat injury makes a substitute necessary.
The bullpen should be a bit better when A.J. Minter is fully healed and joining the rest of the relief arms. The first five slots are already taken with anyone’s guess as to who gets the next 2-3.
Defense has been reinforced with the return of Tyrone Taylor in center field and the addition of defensive magician Jose Siri. Brandon Nimmo is a competent outfielder in left if he isn’t moving to DH due to his foot and, well, Juan Soto earns his pay with his bat not with his glove. The rest of the defense is pretty much the same as it was last year.
The in-game decisions from Carlos Mendoza in his rookie managerial campaign were mostly sound with few examples of choices he made that were questionable. With more experience under his belt and likely a bit more confidence than he had in his prove-it year as a rookie it would seem that the club is in good shape here as well.
15 comments:
Some great potential power on this club. Nimmo? I wouldn’t mind him continuing to swing for more power and have a lower average. Trotting around the bases on a home run is a lot less strenuous on your foot, given his plantar situation, than is sprinting around the base paths to try to turn a single into a double. I’d take 230 with 30 home runs from Brandon. And 150 healthy games.
Today? PLAY BALL!
I disagree about Brandon Nimmo. With the rest of the power up and down the line-up, I see Nimmo being the best fit as a classic #2 hitter who can get on base with a decent batting average (.275) and draw a lot of walks to gain a very high OBP (.375). In other words, get Nimmo doing what he did at his best from 2017 through 2022. If he can be that .360-.400 OBP guy between Lindor and Soto with Alonso following, that seems to be the best way to set them up for their 850+ run season.
Nimmo, Alvarez, and McNeil look like the variance in this lineup. Good offensive years from two of those three will make the lineup formidable. None are guaranteed, but they all have the potential for much better seasons than last year.
The starting pitching is obviously the big question mark. I do wish they had brought in another dependable rotation arm, and the Montas injury is not a great start. That said, I feel like the Stearns/Hefner/pitching lab combo made it work last season, so I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt for now.
R69, I agree in concept, but I remain concerned as to the durability of his foot being fully recovered from the plantar
Apparently they won’t even need that starter slot until mid April with days off, so let’s seeing a few weeks if Montas return is relatively close to that date…or much further off.
Further off, I am worried with the current talent pool, unless Sproat dazzles and arrives quickly
A very fair comment Adam. I don’t understand the McNeil scorn especially when his replacements have not established themselves. And the pitching is definitely a dice roll in some spots. Where the Dodgers have more “aces” than they have starting spots, Stearns is just plugging in arms while he waits for his prospects to bubble to the surface. I would have faith in Senga and Manaea, and that’s it. Peterson and Megill are the next level, Montas and Holmes bring up the rear, with Blackburn and Canning in reserve. That’s not thrilling.
I don't disagree about worrying about the foot, but it seems that has to be managed medically and not by turning him into a home run hitter that all he has to do is tiptoe around the bases once every five days. Nimmo's value is his ability to take walks and slash hits here and there and be on base for the big guys. If he can't do that, he needs to sit until he is healthy.
C'mon guys, I love the Mets as much as anyone else. But some of you guys have to lay off the GUMMIES. Compared to the Dodgers our starting pitching is like the little leagues...good point Gus.
Tom, if I hear about Nimmo's Plantar Fasc. one more time I'm going to scream. What a pussy. I had this like 5 times, the first time my foot exploded. I got a cortisone shot then took my wife out for our anniversary and walked through the entire Central Park in NYC. Went out to dinner and dancing after. Grow some hair son. Also, I will never agree about Nimmo. If he doesn't return to a .270 Avg/380 OBP then to me he is useless. You can't have every player on your team looking to hit homeruns.
I think McNeil and Alvarez will have good seasons. McNeil will be looking over his shoulder all year for whoever will be his long term replacement. The key for Alvarez is staying healthy - no more getting clunked by big backswings. I am not convinced they are covered well in the catching depth column. Torrens had some good moments last year, but can he be a #1 for two months if necessary, and if he is, who is the back-up? The fans may be wishing for Nido!
I am not particularly worried about the pitching now - unless one of the top three goes down with injury. Stearns built plenty of depth into the system, even if they are not shiny names. They just need the back-end guys to eat innings without being total disasters.
I think we are setting the pitching bar way too low.
There is a trade-off. If you throw more dollars into bigger name pitchers, who do you remove from the offense?
We had the same concerns last year while counting on Senga. Senga was lost for the year and they did well with Manaea, Peterson, Severino, and Quintana, none of whom could be characterized as an ace and most without any decent track record prior to 2024 to speak of. They are deeper this year and it appears (so far) that Senga is back and healthy.
Given that he’s a former batting champ (and as Mendoza said, “they don’t just give those things away”) I’m a believer in McNeil’s last 40 games before he was injured. And yes, he definitely sees the kids coming up behind him. I see a big bounce back season from McNeil. Alvarez needs to learn to keep his bare hand behind his back. He got hit on that hand by so many foul tips last year that MY hand hurt watching him.
JoeP, it is clear you won’t CEASE on the subject of starting pitching
Your posts always bring a smile to my face. You certainly don't mince your words
Post a Comment