Ozuna has had two straight bounce back campaigns
As anyone who reads a lot of my articles, you will recall that on multiple occasions, I cite how often hitters reaching their 30s in baseball start to spiral down. Sometimes earlier.
I can be a real Debbie Downer sometimes.
Pete Alonso at age 27 in 2022 was awesome, but he showed offensive slippage at ages 28 and 29 over the last two seasons.
So...is he in the start of a downward spiral?
Or...will he spiral UPWARDS?
Might he - I dunno - emulate a Brave named Marcell Ozuna?
Ozuna signed a “modest” 5 year, $80 million contract in 2021, expiring in 2025.
In Ozuna's last two years (ages 32 and 33 for 2023-24), he was thunderous:
60 doubles, 79 HRs, 204 RBIs, .290.
BUT...in his prior two seasons, when he was age 30 (like Pete is this year) and 31, he was - well, he was pretty awful. One could say Crappy.
Marcell was up just 715 times in those 2 seasons and did hit 30 HRs, but drove in just 82 runs over those 2 years while hitting .220. Ugh.
Kind of like DJ Stewart production.
Over his last 2 seasons, though, Ozuna has been spiraling all right - sharply UPWARDS. Defying age related decline.
(As a Mets fan, I personally wouldn't mind if the Braves' Ozuna had a downward spiral year in 2025. Back to Crappy would be fine with me.)
Pete's last two years, while somewhat substandard compared to his strong 2022 season, were better than Ozuna's 2021-22 crappy seasons.
If Pete bounces back and does in 2025 what Ozuna bounced back to do in 2023 and 2024, he will earn himself a better, and longer, contract after he (Pete) opts out after the 2025 season. And...the Mets will win the Division.
Pete is joined by Soto, Lindor, Nimmo, Vientos, Alvarez, Winker and several others, and it is just easier to hit when you are part of a hitting juggernaut, as the Mets ought to be in 2025.
I am thus expecting Pete to bounce back strong in 2025. Spiral upwards.
AND....HAPPY BOBBY VALENTINES DAY TO YOU ALL.
5 comments:
Good morning, Tom. I’m with you on this. Pete was better in the second half last year than the first. And even better in the postseason. To the point you made in an earlier piece, he looked more aggressive early in counts. He did strike out more, but he hit better overall. I think there’s a good chance he has a big bounce back season. And hitting in this lineup should help.
This offense should always be putting immense pressure on opposing pitchers. As I see it…Sometimes, those pitchers won’t fold. But…Many times, they will.
I think Pete's woes are very correctable. He just needs to come to the plate with a better plan. He gets himself into too many pitcher's counts, and then ends up swinging at pitches he does not want. When he is in a favorable count and decides to swing at good strikes, he hits the ball fine.
I agree with Paul and in addition, I feel a lot of his woes were mental. I hope is able to forget everything about the contract and the money and becomes the hitter he is capable of being. He needs to be comfortable driving in runs because he should have a lot of runners on base when he comes up.
Paul, 100%. And you avoid pitchers' counts by swinging more at strikes on hitters' counts, like the first pitch. There is no hard and fast rule, of course. Whereas Rooker ended his at bats on first pitches around 40+% of the time, Ozuna did so only about 10% of the time. Ozuna, when right, has just been a better hitter than Pete.
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