MACK - MY Sunday Observations

 Good morning…

 

I’ve got a couple of items to open up with that dropped on Wednesday. I could have rushed and added it to the Thursday post, but that one was full enough with Mets chatter and I am not the kind of writer that runs after being the first one to say something about something. I no longer play the X game and you, my readers here, rely more on my opinions rather than the timing of what happened when.

First up, the Mets signed OF Gilberto Celestino to a minor deal.

25/years old               RHH           6-0                  170                 2020-IFA

Career -                         0.0-WAR, 370-AB, 4-HR, .222

2024 - AAA                  255-AB, 3-HR, .275/.349/.356/.704

In March 2023, suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb.

An interesting late sign and it probably means that Ryan Clifford is now permanently moved to first base in Syracuse. Teams carry five outfielders and Celestino will join Alex Ramirez, Matt Rudnick, Jose Azocar, Rafael Ortega, and Drew Gilbert as the six fighting for five slots on opening day.

What surprises me is the fact that Celestino brings no pop to the game.

 

Next up is the late addition of a name we all know well.

The Mets and RHRP Drew Smith have agreed to $1mil deal for 2025, with a club option for 2026.

2024                              0.2-WAR, 1-1. 3.06

Career                           2.0-WAR, 12-13, 3.48

31/years old               6-2              190                 3^rd rd.   Dallas Baptist

Currently rehabbing from TJS/brace. Likely to miss the entire 2025 season, but this seems to be a deal that allows Smith to use the Mets doctors and, in return, give the Mets the option of bringing him back in 2026.

Smith is also the longest tenured Met. He was obtained in 2017 in a trade for Lucas Duda.

Look… the guy has a career 3.48-ERA with a K/9 rate over 9. All this for a mil a year? Come on. I always liked Smith and there is a place for him on my team.

I’m thrilled he’s back.

 

David Steans has spoken about Candilita. Seems he will not be offering Jose Iglesias a contract in 2025. Totally understandable, what with both Jeff McNeil and LuisAngel Acuna both crowding second.

Stearns said he’s opting for youth here (I.E. Acuna) and "having some flexibility there in that role is frankly probably needed for us right

So much for the OMG signs. But thanks Jose. You did well in 2024.

 

I couldn’t help but notice Anthony Gose in camp.

The 34-year old Gose was once an outfielder who converted to pitching in 2017. Since then, he produced a 3.83-ERA in 140 minor league games. His fastball sits in the mid-90s, but it has had a bad history of finding the paint.

It’s costing the Mets pennies for a look-see in camp and possible Syracuse.

 

Edwin Diaz:

“That’s something I gotta look at after the season with my agent, see where we’re at and make a decision. Right now, I’m not thinking about that. I want to help this team win. I love this team. I want to stay here because I love the team, I love the coaches, I love the ownership, I love everyone. I feel really good right here.

I got more freedom this year. I feel really good because I’m able to work on whatever I want. I don’t have to ask trainers, coaches, anyone, ‘Can I do this?’ Now I go out there and play catch, do whatever I want and that’s it.”

 

Mark Vientos:

“There's a lot of guys on this team I grew up watching. Now I'm in the same lineup as them. We can argue we're one of the top lineups in baseball. Last year I was trying to solidify myself and trying to prove myself. I was going at 100 mph. Now we slow it down a little bit and see the game within the game"

 

Carlos Mendosa had a few observations after this past Thursday’s workout.

 

On Tyler Megill:

            "He's a pro, he understands. He wants to be a big league pitcher. I like how he does conversations... he's gonna make a lot of starts for us. He's got to stay on the attack. He's got to get ahead, put hitters away and limit damage. It's always that one inning that gets away from him, it comes with experience. The good thing is the stuff is there."

 

On Francisco Alvarez:

 "It's gonna take time. You gotta give him credit. He spent the whole offseason working. He seems like he's more under control"

Jose Butto:

"The way he handled adversity, just going through the whole experience - what it takes to pitch at the big league level, high-leverage innings, pitch in the playoffs, it was good for him"

Mark Vientos:

"He's not scared. The moment doesn't impact him. He's ready to go and he wants to compete."

Brandon Sproat:

"I'm probably not gonna sound right, but you want those guys to struggle in the minor leagues. He flew through the minors and it was easy for him. He got to a level where [he] had to make some adjustments"

There was additional positive chatter that day about Sproat. People said his fastball just seemed to jump out of his hands. He was just about lights out in a three-inning camp stint (that’s way ahead of where most pitchers are at).

Mendoza spent a lot of time talking about Sproat. Let me tell you… you see a lot of pitchers at the same time and sometimes one particular arm really stands out. Thursday was Brandon Sproat day. He definitely moved his bar up. I expect we will see a lot of him once real spring training games starts.       

 

I know we all bitch and moan on how much the Dodgers are spending this year. The addition of Clayton Kershaw ups the Dodgers' luxury tax payroll as approximately $392.5 million. But let’s remember they are receiving $8bil over 25 years from their television contract.

 

Many of you ask about more details regarding the Mets pitching lab and whether or not it is making a difference. Well, Griffin Canning has named it the main reason he signed with the Mets over other teams that wanted his service. Canning recognizes his need to improve on the mound and he feels the lab will help him achieve that goal. Details remain hush hush, but it’s good to see the lab could be making the difference between a good and bad season for some of these guys. 

       

Codify                            @CodifyBaseball 

Starting Pitchers, Projected 2025 fWAR of 3+:

4 LAD

3 PHI ATL

2 SEA NYY MIN SD

1 BOS ARI DET TEX PIT CIN KC TB HOU STL CHC TOR SF MIA

0 MIL NYM BAL LAA WSH CLE COL CWS ATH

 

MLB –

 Hindsight: Evaluating our top prospect projections from '23

https://www.mlb.com/news/evaluating-each-mlb-team-top-prospect-projections-2023?partnerID=web_article-share

Mets

Who we picked: Kevin Parada, C

Who it is: Brandon Sproat, RHP (MLB No. 46)

Scouts were big fans of Parada’s offensive potential coming out of Georgia Tech. The 2022 11th overall pick entered pro ball after setting a school record with 26 homers as a Draft-eligible sophomore, and he looked like someone who could hit for a high average at a premium position. But the rigors of catching can make development at the position hit or miss, and Parada has managed just a career .717 OPS while still being a work-in-progress behind the plate. 

Entering his age-23 season, he’s a candidate to slide off the Mets list until the bat looks more consistently like its Yellow Jackets version.

 

Top 10 NL Breakout Players to Watch in 2025

2. Francisco Alvarez

2024 MLB Stats: 100 G, .237/.307/.403, 11 HRs, 102 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

When our staff has ranked the top 10 catchers in baseball over the past two seasons, Francisco Alvarez has made the list each time. This is despite the fact that he is only 23 years old, and still clearly has yet to play his best baseball at the big league level.

As a defender, Alvarez is extremely solid. While he may not be a great blocker, he did rank in the 88th percentile in framing in 2024. Not only is this super impressive, but this makes him loved by any pitcher on the staff.

Alvarez gets rave reviews for his leadership, which was felt on a Mets team that took the Dodgers to Game 6 of the NLCS, with Alvarez catching every pitch of the playoffs.

Where Alvarez still needs to improve, however, is with the bat. As he has yet to live up to the potential he showcased when he was one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

Across 100 games play in 2024, Alvarez saw his walk rate, strikeout rate, batting average, on-base percentage, and wRC+ all improve from the marks he set in 2023. And yet, his home run total went from 25 in 2023, to only 11 in 2024, creating a mixed season for the young backstop.

If Alvarez can reach 25 home runs again, while maintaining and building on some of the improvements he made last year in the other facets of his game, it’s hard not to get excited about what his true potential might look like.

 

Amazin Avenue –

 

Colin Houck, SS

Is he broken or just had a poor adjustment period? After a small 9 game sample at age 19, Houck struggled in 2024. Houck only hit .206/.304/.306 with 5 HRs, 5 triples, 49 walks in 112 games, but the problem was that he also struck out an eye popping 171 times on the year in St. Lucie. 

He plays shortstop so by the time he's ready to come up, he'll probably be blocked or playing a different position entirely and he's got the mobility and arm strength to make it work. Where he becomes attractive bait is that he's only 20, and can be fixed. It remains to be seen whether or not he can change his approach to not being as much of a free swinger, he may just be the Javy Baez-Joey Gallo free swinging type, but at his age it's not as much of a red flag just yet. 

So if the Mets think it'll be a lingering issue, it wouldn't hurt to see if Houck can spice up a deal enough to land someone that can help the major league team this year or for the foreseeable future.

 

Kevin Parada, C 

Parada is a perfect example of a prospect that hasn't seemed to figure it out and put it together as he rose through the system. It's a question mark on where he's going to end up playing as time goes on as he's been a liability behind the dish in terms of preventing stolen bases, teams just aren't scared of him, he's mostly known for his bat over glove. The issue? He didn't hit much either. In 87 games in Brooklyn in 2023, Parada was slapping hits and knocked 11 HR's to pair with a .265 average. It wasn't as pretty once he left Coney Island. 

During an end of season call up to Binghamton, he only managed a .185 average in his 14 games, and it would've been easy to just brush it off as a harsh adjustment to the environment. However, when he stayed there for a full season in 2024, the bat never seemed to show back up. 

He improved to a still less than stellar .214 average and 153 strikeouts, the only bright stats were his 13 HR's in the 114 games played. While he's not a free swinger, it's not exactly encouraging for him to struggle that badly. With that being said, his power and hitting skills are still great. He knows how to spray the ball and get to the ball in the zone. There's no reason to believe that his bat won't bounce back, he just needs to refine his approach. 

He won't be a prospect that any team starts beating the door down for unless something drastically changes, but he absolutely could be the guy who pushes the trade through the door.

 

Jim Koenigsberger            @Jimfrombaseball 

“Kid, I know who you are and before your career is over, I guarantee you everyone in this stadium will, too.”

Hank Aaron to Tom Seaver 

"The trouble is not that players have sex the night before a game. It's that they stay out all night looking for it. You gotta learn that if you don`t get it by midnight, chances are you ain`t going to get it, and if you do, it ain`t worth it"

Casey Stengel 

"I walk into the clubhouse and it's like walking into the Mayo Clinic. We have four doctors, three therapists and five trainers. Back when I broke in, we had one trainer who carried a bottle of rubbing alcohol and by the seventh inning he had drunk it all."

Tommy Lasorda