Everyone in Metsville wonders…
Is Acuna ready?
What about Baty?
Gilbert? Sproat? Williams?
The answers depend on how you look at matters.
What’s your prism?
First, acknowledge and factor in that the Mets are in a VERY TOUGH division, where the title and even a wild card spot are not automatic.
As such, do you want to bring up a young hitter who will flounder, perhaps hitting .190, and you miss the playoffs by one lousy stinking game?
If you are Stearns the answer likely is…Uhh, No. Heck No!
If Acuna and Baty were on the White Sox, the prism would be different - they’d absolutely be getting major time in 2025, since the White Sox have little to lose, because they will lose a lot. Maybe a little more than a lot.
Heck, if I were the Chi Sox, and I had Jett Williams in the system, too, and he was hot through Memorial Day, I’d call him up, also. The Mets won’t, though.
They have a playoff spot to try to secure.
You really want the playoffs? You need ample veterans with proven baselines to get you there. Prospects most of the time are wild cards. I pointed out recently that the touted Jarred Kelenic had 500 at bats in his first two seasons and hit .168. Even Mark Vientos scuffled for over a year before he started crushing lots of baseballs like a bona fide MLB slugger.
Have a prospect today do the Kelenic Sputter on the Mets and perhaps the playoffs go out the window.
Acuna? Well, he did OK in AAA last year. But he didn’t hit anywhere near .350 for Syracuse. I remember when Eric Campbell got promoted by the Mets in 2014 after in fact hitting .355 in AAA. He was hitting much better than Acuna, started out with the Mets well like Acuna, but then…Eric flopped. The league figured him out. Will Acuna get figured out?
Baty? He’s failed a few times, so he is risky to put any real reliance on. He doesn’t have to prove he can excel…he does need to prove he won’t star in “Flop 3”.
Let’s move on…
Relievers?
You always need a lot of them, and you can and will try out quite a few prospect relievers, first in in lopsided games. That part’s easy. They’re ready when they are needed, ready or not.
Starters like Sproat, though?
Same quandary as the hitters. When Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux started their Hall of Fame careers, initially they were mediocre at best. That mediocrity doesn’t get a team in a tightly contested division to the playoffs. So Sproat won’t go north with the Mets.
If Sproat was in the lowly White Sox organization, though, he’d be called up very quickly. Heck, he might start on opening day. Nothing to lose if he struggles for a while in the Windy City. 50-112, or 60-102, what’s the difference, really?
I think the above is how David Stearns sees it.
- If you want to go deep into the playoffs…
- You’ve got to get into the playoffs first.
Rookies are risky.They should wear a label from the surgeon general on the hazards of using rookie hitters. Potentially hazardous to your playoff efforts.
15 comments:
Winning teams need to incorporate at least 3 rookies each year to guarantee future success.
Ray, good point. I do not think we see any coming out of spring training, but probably 2 by midseason, and 3-4 by September.
Amazing story that Brett Baty quickly agreed to give up his #22 to Juan Soto. Soto in turn bought him a loaded Chevy Tahoe as a gift. Nice.
I gave up my press cred to Jay
He gave me the boot
Pretty sure that getting #22 was in Soto’s contract, Tom. So Baty didn’t technically “give it up” as I’m pretty sure that Cohen didn’t ask his permission to include that in the Soto deal. That said, it makes it even classier that Soto bought him that car in exchange. I think the guy is going to fit in here great. Also, does Soto’s grand gesture make Lindor look a little cheap for taking more than a year to buy the one he promised to McNeil? 😏
Ride was 95K
Tom, every time I think I come up with really good ideas, you write something solid with very compelling information that makes me really think about. Well done.
My ideas were based on the underperforming seasons of Nimmo, McNeil, the DH and CF. I didn't think the prospects could do much worse.
JoeP, thanks. I just try to see it thru “maximum success” eyes, which is what Stearns and Cohen want. I just think rookies early on are high risk. In 2024, they started out 0-5, then briefly got hot, then lost 27 of 39. Winning is a challenge that can’t be taken lightly. Good veterans can help avoid the plunges that rookies who hit turbulence are less likely to not cascade downwards.
The car was a nice gesture and all, but when the total contract is considered, that car was about the equivalent value to my buying a bowling ball. I don't think it hurt Juan too much and it was worth a few tenths of a WAR in the team chemistry column.
I guess my question with regards to Acuna, is when is the best time to give him his real shot? Yes, there will be growing pains and fortunately he came up and did not flop in September 2024 when they needed him. With his fantastic entrance into the majors last year and then his very strong winter league showing really earned him the look out of the gate in 2025. If he runs into the rookie learning curve in April or May, he will still be gaining valuable experience for another September and October. Occasionally a rookie will get the call in September and excel for a bit, as Acuna did in 2024, but it is smarter baseball management to bring them along and let them grow during the long part of the year. Baseball is still a nine-person game. One guy cannot throw a season away, and experience means everything in this sport.
R69, Acuna's winter ball average was 15th best, in a smaller league than the big leagues. Pitching is wea down there. I'd like to see him hitting .320 in AAA. Then, I would feel his prospects of not failing are strong. His Steamers OBP projection for 2025 is .294. OK as a utility player. I'd like to see him get to .315 OBP for Steamers. I think that will take him at least a few months in AAA. Having starters with a .294 OBP is too reminiscent of the late 1970s Mets. McNeil's Steamers OBP is .331, and that 37 point difference is very significant in amount.
Take a look at Jose Reyes stats - his AAA stats in 2003 showed .269 BA and .690 OPS. They brought him up and installed him at shortstop where he hit pretty well for in 2H2003 (much better in MLB than at Norfolk). In 2004, he had some growing pains with an MLB .644 OPS. That was experience used to catapult him to one of the better major league hitters for several years, culminating in a batting championship. Waiting for a guy to hit .320 in AAA before giving him the chance is not always the right thing to do.
With that said, I think Acuna needs to play every day. If that cannot happen in New York, it should happen in Syracuse. It would obviously be great if he hit .320 in Syracuse, but if he hits .260 or .270 he cannot be written off at this point. My preference is to give him the starting second base job in New York, but there is a guy with a multi-year contract holding that position in front of him.
If he is hitting .170 with 1 home run and 9 RBI by Memorial Day, then something else must be done, but the young guys need to learn by doing.
Acuna could win a job outright in the spring by a torrid performance, but Madrigal isn't a bad temporary solution. Unless Baty beats him out for the utility job. I would be very excited about Acuna if he was 3 inches taller. I am not sure he will ever be more than mediocre offensively for that reason alone. (Freddie Patek might disagree). If LAA was Lindor's height, I'd trade McNeil and install Acuna at 2B for opening day - that 5 inches would make him have star potential.
To paraphrase an earlier post title: "Why can't Acuna become our Altuve?"
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