12/14/25

MACK - MORE FOCUS - Jorge Polanco, Zach Peet, Elian Pena, xERA vs. xwOBA,

 



On December 13, 2025, the Mets agreed to a two-year, $40 million contract with1B/DH Jorge Polanco, who was a free agent after a strong season with the Seattle Mariners.

This move comes as the Mets reshape their roster following the departures of Pete Alonso (to the Baltimore Orioles), Edwin Díaz (to the Dodgers), and Brandon Nimmo (traded to Texas).Key

Polanco is expected to primarily play first base (a new position for him—he has zero MLB innings there) and designated hitter, stepping in as a replacement for Alonso's power.

His versatility allows him to play second base, third base, or shortstop if needed.

The projected Mets infield includes Polanco at 1B, Marcus Semien (acquired in the Nimmo trade) at 2B, Francisco Lindor at SS, and Brett Baty at 3B.

2025 Performance (with Seattle Mariners)

Polanco had a bounce-back year after a down 2024 season, posting some of his best numbers:

.265 batting average

26 home runs

78 RBIs

.326 OBP / .495 SLG / .821 OPS

132 wRC+ (career high)

He was mostly a DH in 2025 (87 starts) with some time at 2B, and his defense was average to below-average (-4 OAA overall).

Career Background

Polanco spent his first 10 MLB seasons with the Minnesota Twins (debut 2014), earning an All-Star nod in 2019 and hitting a career-high 33 HRs in 2021.

He was traded to Seattle before the 2024 season.

Known for clutch hitting (especially in playoffs) and switch-hitting balance, he's a solid middle-of-the-order bat with good contact skills.

This signing gives the Mets offensive pop and flexibility as they aim to contend in 2026, though fans have mixed reactions given the recent losses of fan favorites. The deal is pending a physical.

            Running From The OPS                      @OPS_BASEBALL


Jorge Polanco slugged 26 HR last season in large part due to his above-average QoC and ability to deliver elevated pull-side contact. He will be used at first base, but can play multiple positions on the infield. Overall, he posted a 132 wRC+ and 2.6 fWAR

 

The Mets signed RHP Zach Peek to a minor league contract.

Zach Peek is a right-handed pitcher (RHP) born May 6, 1998, standing 6'3" and weighing around 190 lbs.

He was originally drafted by the Los Angeles Angels in the 6th round (181st overall) of the 2019 MLB Draft out of Winthrop University, where he had a strong college career as a starter, earning All-Big South honors.

His pro path includes a trade to the Baltimore Orioles in December 2019 (as part of the Dylan Bundy deal, alongside Kyle Bradish and others).

He debuted in the minors in 2021, posting solid numbers (6-3, 3.80 ERA, 122 K in 90 IP across A and High-A).

Injuries hampered him, including Tommy John surgery that limited him severely in recent years.

In December 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers selected him in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft.

In 2025, he started with High-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, moved to Double-A Biloxi Shuckers, but was released by the Brewers in November 2025

Repertoire

Peek has a diverse six-pitch mix, though his primary arsenal is a three-pitch core with additional variations:

Four-seam fastball: Typically low-90s (90-93 mph average), touching 95 mph at peak (post-TJS reports suggest potential for a bit more). It has average shape and can miss bats up in the zone but is hittable if left low.

Two-seam/sinker variation: In the same velocity band, with run or riding life.

Curveball: Big 11-5 breaker, projectable to above-average; he can manipulate shape (including slider-like versions).

Changeup: Around 10 mph off the fastball, with fade and good spin kill; relies on command and deception.

Additional breakers (e.g., harder slider or cutter variants) round out the mix, giving him versatility.

Pre-draft and early pro scouting highlighted a clean delivery, good command, and strike-throwing ability, projecting him as a potential back-end starter.

Post-injury, he's shown relief potential with the expanded arsenal, though velocity sits lower than his college peaks (up to 94).

He's not an overpowering arm but uses feel, deception, and pitchability to get outs. 




Tangotiger - @tangotiger

xERA and xwOBA are the same thing, different scales


13 comments:

Paul Articulates said...

It is odd that Polanco would be projected at first base if he has never played the position. Could it be that there is something else in the works?!

TexasGusCC said...

Too bad the Mets couldn’t secure a top six spot in the draft. Did they use up that much good fortune in 2024? Nothing has gone right since!

The Mets also signed someone from the Mexican League; he throws 96.

One thing that I’m very curious about: SafeCo Park was the hardest to homer in for two out of three years and then placed 29th to PetCo. I wonder how Polanco will do away from there more often. Also rhe Rangers park is hard to homer in. Citifield is middle of the pack.

Mack Ade said...

My guess

SWDH

Mack Ade said...

Where's Tom with his fence shit

Jon Messinger said...

TexasGusCC: don't think that I agree with your comment that nothing has gone right since 2024, their minor leagues have exploded with top talent, I'm sure a combination of great drafting and development. they arguably have the top rated system in baseball. hopefully, all this talent will allow them to both promote and trade for a much stronger, and long term successful team.

TexasGusCC said...

I was thinking of luck. They haven’t gotten too lucky. Even last year, they had three top 15 offensive performers and still missed the playoffs. That’s very hard to do. Making the top six in the draft would have been a great consolation prize, but nope.

Tom Brennan said...

Fences are indeed middle of the pack - in the middle of the season. Early on, it is hitting into syrup. On June 13, I wrote this as Brandon Nimmo was called to the witness stand: CITI FENCES?…PER BRANDON NIMMO?



THERE GOES BRENNAN AGAIN…THIS TIME, IT IS BRENNAN NIMMO..ERR, I MEAN BRANDON NIMMO…

To bolster my case for shorter Citi fences, a NY Post article said this (in June):

“Brandon Nimmo….said he spoke to Soto recently about expecting an offensive improvement once the weather begins to warm up in New York.

“Things are heating up, and his numbers are all pointing to him being the Soto that we all know and love,” Nimmo said of Soto. (He continued)…

“Citi Field, it’s no joke.

“I tell you guys every single year, April and May here is no joke.

“There’s a reason this ballpark ranks in the bottom of ballparks every single year, and it’s not because of June, July and August.

“But we’ve gotten into some hitter ballparks and got into some warmer weather. He’s still walking, but now he’s doing damage when they come into the zone. … He’s stayed the course, and he is, I believe, by the end of the season — God willing, stay healthy — he’ll be exactly where he needs to be and we’ll be so glad that he’s on our side.”

Brandon Nimmo, you may step down. Judge, I rest my case.

Tom Brennan said...

Gus, I have in the past analyzed this and can only conclude as follows:

A deal with the devil was made for "Gets By Buckner" - the devil allowed it in exchange for never-ending bad Mets' luck. Luck's been bad since November 1986 in Metsville.

TexasGusCC said...

Tom, God is always in control, you know that.

As for the weather, tell Nimmo not to worry because the new Rangers ballpark is nothing like the old. It’s actually below Citifield in HomeRun Factor.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2025&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=3&parks=mlb

TexasGusCC said...
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TexasGusCC said...
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TexasGusCC said...

Remember, it took the Dodgers ten years of high salaries to reach where they are now. If the Mets can reach that level, but it will take eight to ten years, are you in?

Tom Brennan said...

Yes, God is in control. The Dodgers have palm trees. We have Queens snow in April.