You Want Prime? We Got Prime.
By:
Mack Ade
“My pitching philosophy is simple -
keep the ball away from the bat.”
Satchel
Paige
“Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa.”
Casey
Stengel
“You
can be in my dream if I can be in yours”
Bob
Dylan
It’s always
about the pitching.
Teams always
draft ‘the best player available’, unless there is a tie. Ties always go to
picking a pitcher.
Show me a
team playing in the World Series and I’ll show you a team that has three starters
that could pitch SP1 for other teams, plus a +8th inning guy and
+closer.
Show me a
team that has great hitting and scouts will say ‘too bad they can’t pitch’.
Show me a
team that has great pitching and scouts will say ‘that’s a great team’.
It’s always
about the pitching.
-
-
The Mets are
building a pitching dynasty.
The strange
part is the fact that it’s being accomplished with two different General
Managers.
Omar
Minaya did a wonderful
job of steering the ship (through rough waters) in the right direction, both
through the draft (Jon Niese), selective
signings (R.A.Dickey), and international free
agents (Jeurys Familia). Sandy Alderson has taken over and produced what projects to be the
best Mets draft in over 20-years, and stolen one of the games top pitching
prospects (Zack Wheeler) for a guy that was
leaving anyway.
Folks, if
you have the pitchers, you can get just about anything you want for them.
High school
coaches are turning every player over 6-2 into a starter. 10 years from now,
you’ll have an outfield that averages 5-10 are runs like hell, a Hispanic
infield, and a basketball team on the mound.
Here’s where
things stack up now, if everyone is for real:
2013:
Johan Santana, and Jon Niese are under contract and will return, probably
sandwiched by R.A. Dickey once the Mets renew
his contract. My guess is Mike Pelfrey will
either be traded or DFA’d and Dillon Gee will
compete with Jeurys Familia and Matt Harvey for the SP4 and SP5 slot. Chris Schwinden, Pedro Beato, Josh Edgin, and Jenrry Mejia will join the Mets pen.
2014:
Santana will be gone, and, most probably Dillon Gee will join the pen
along with Elvin Ramirez, Collin McHugh, and Armondo Rodriguez. The rotation could be Harvey,
Niese, Dickey, Familia and one of Darin Gorski, Zack Wheeler,
or Greg Peavey.
2015: Now, things really start to get crowded. Add Cory Mazzoni, Tyler Pill, Alex Panteliodis, Jack Leathersich, Angel Cuan, Gonzalez Germen, Taylor Whitenton, Yohan Almonte, John Church, and Chase Huchington.
2016: Want more? How about Domingo
Tapia, Akeel Morris, Juan Urbina, Michael Fulmer, Rafael Montero,
whomever the hell they draft this June, and Logan
Verrett.
Okay, we
know some of these names will go in the direction others have gone first (I’m
not naming names to avoid embarrassment). Still, if 50% of these guys prove to
have what it takes, Sandy can pick up a phone, call anyone with multiple
prospects at a field position, and work out the right deal for both teams.
Probably
two, maybe three everyday starters in 2015 are right now playing in some other
organization after being drafted before the Mets had a chance to draft them.
That’s how
the system works if you have the prime.
“Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing.”
Warren
Spahn
“Nolan Ryan is pitching much better now that he has his curve ball
straightened out.”
Joe
Garagiola
“It’s always about the
pitching.”
David Rubin
7 comments:
Mack -
While I am enjoying Lincecum/Cain/Bumgarner (and gritting teeth a bit on Wheeler but I'm OK with the win-now trade, flags fly forever) I would just throw up the following names as a cautionary tale:
Ainsworth/Foppert/Williams/Lowry.
The Giants were set to be dominant. And then they weren't.
as the Mets were with Pulsipher, Igringhausen, Wilson, and Acevedo (everyone always forgets Acevedo).
I think this situation is a bit different than those mentioned (Foppert/Williams Giants and Generation K). Although some may disagree, I don't see the current pitching in the system leading a parade of future aces to the majors.
What this will be though, is a pitching-rich organization. Niese is already up, having success, and signed long-term. The Mets will also likely fill only two other rotation spots with internal options. If just two of these pitchers make it, the team will likely be getting above-position production (i.e. if Harvey comes up and is the SP4 or SP5, pitches like a SP2-3, and is cheap). That locks down SP3-SP5 and allows the Mets the go out and invest the savings in TOR pitchers from outside the organization.
As Mack said, Gee will likely be headed to the bullpen in a year or two. Adding Parnell, Beato, Peavey, Gorski, Leathersich, Panteliodis, Verrett, Mazzoni, and Edgin, the team will also have a lot of internal options to fill the bullpen slots...again leaving money to invest in top talent from outside the organization. Also, some of these pitchers will likely be traded before they have a chance to make the majors and 'harm' their value.
While the future for all of these players is unknown, I agree with Mack that this organization is sitting pretty right now.
You're probably spot on, Mike.
I see Wheeler having potential SP1 talent.
Harvey scares me. Looks a little "like Mike".
Mejia and Familia are best suited at the back end of a future pen.
Me?
I would still sign Young, and give R.A. two more years with a team third year option.
I totally agree the Mets are looking great now. Don't want to give that impression. Having pitching turn out is magical. And the Mets are set up for it.
I agree Mack, Wheeler is really impressing right now...I wouldn't be surprised if he heads to Buffalo in June. Harvey looks like he needs more seasoning and I would hold him out of NYC until September. You might see the two of them ready to make the jump at the same time.
As of now, I'm looking at the 2014 rotation and seeing:
SP1 - Trade/FA
SP2 - Trade/FA
SP3 - Wheeler
SP4 - Niese
SP5 - Harvey
Those 3 would give the Mets one of (if not THE) the best back-ends of a rotation in MLB. If the two spots ahead of them are filled wisely, we could see the deepest rotation this team has had in a while, on par with the mid-1980's.
I think having Familia and Mejia only make the situation more interesting. Either they can help lock down games on the cheap as bullpen specialist or possibly be sold to a team on their starter upside to fill other needs.
Mack, I agree with you on Young, he'd provide some cheap depth. On Dickey, I like him but I'd wait until the end of the year to see if the team can't acquire a younger, more long-term solution....but, as you mentioned, two years might be good for now.
Nah...
R.A.'s kewl...
As long as it doesn't rain...
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