I like to compare the MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects to my Mets Prospect Top 25, to see where I converged with them and where I differed. (Note: I tend to lean towards performance over pure theoretical potential).
Who's right?
I think I am, but you be the judge.
PLAYER
|
MLB
PIPELINE #
|
MY
RANK
|
DIFF
(+/-)
|
THOUGHTS
|
Ronny Mauricio SS
|
1
|
1
|
-
|
We both
think he will be great. Numero uno.
|
Brett Baty 3B
|
2
|
5
|
(3)
|
I was a bit
concerned about his strikeout rate, but still had him at # 5.
|
Andres Gimenez SS
|
3
|
4
|
(1)
|
I thought
Matt Allen’s potential is higher than Gimenez, but it is splitting hairs.
|
Matt Allen SP
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
See above
|
Francisco Alvarez C
|
5
|
2
|
3
|
I am taking
a flyer that Alvarez will turn out to be the best catcher ever developed by
the Mets.
|
Mark Vientos 3B
|
6
|
7
|
(1)
|
# Six, # seven,
flip a coin. I was slightly
dissatisfied with his 2019 offensively.
|
David Peterson SP
|
7
|
13
|
(6)
|
A lousy
2019 (3-6, 4.19 in 24 starts) kept the former # 1 pick out of my top 10. Not so great in the AFL, either. Prove me wrong,
please.
|
Sherveyn Newton 2B
|
8
|
N/R
|
N/R
|
I was quite
unimpressed by his .209/.283/.330 season in A ball, with 139 Ks in 109 games.
Maybe I will be a lot more impressed in 2020, when he turns 21.
|
Josh Wolf SP
|
9
|
11
|
(2)
|
Our
rankings (9 vs. 11) are close. Little
to go on but his scouting reports, but let’s hope next year at this time, he
is top 5 for the 2nd rounder.
|
Franklyn Kilome SP
|
10
|
N/R
|
N/R
|
Coming off
TJS, and being a career 22-27, 3.55 minor leaguer, led me to keep him out of
my top 25. He was my # 26. I hope he
comes back like a ball of fire.
|
Kevin Smith SP
|
11
|
8
|
3
|
I was very
impressed with his first full season, just about catching up to fellow lefty David
Peterson, who started pro ball a year sooner.
|
Tom Szapucki SP
|
12
|
6
|
6
|
Similar to
Kilome, but stronger results when he’s actually pitched and not been on DL
with TJS. So I had him higher.
|
Junior Santos SP
|
13
|
15
|
(2)
|
Mediocre
2019 for the very young giant, but our rankings are close. A great 2020 at age 18?
|
Dedniel Nunez SP
|
14
|
N/R
|
N/R
|
I liked
Dedniel a lot in the first half of 2019, but his last game was July 11. As injury severity is often opaque in the
minors, his missing two months gave me pause.
I left him off my top 25 after having him on it during the season.
|
Tony Dibrell SP
|
15
|
N/R
|
N/R
|
I lost a
lot of Tony Love after he fell off the balance beam in AA, where (after his
mid-season promotion) he went a horrid 0-8 with a 9+ ERA. He went from Tony the Tiger to Tony the
Paper Tiger.
|
Ryley Gilliam RP
|
16
|
14
|
2
|
We are
ranked closely on the hard throwing pen arm.
Hopefully, after sputtering over his latter 2019 outings, he comes
back with a vengeance in 2020.
|
Ali Sanchez C
|
17
|
23
|
(6)
|
After
seeing Tomas Nido underwhelm with the bat, I fear Ali Sanchez may do the same
– but he sure is a great defensive catcher.
|
Freddy Valdez OF
|
18
|
21
|
(3)
|
We ranked
him close enough. Hopefully, he is top
10 this time next year.
|
Alex Ramirez OF
|
19
|
24
|
(5)
|
Super-young,
hopefully he shows us in 2020 that he is the next Juan Soto.
|
Adrian
Hernandez OF
|
20
|
N/R
|
N/R
|
He was
solid but not great in the DSL in 2019. I’d probably have him around # 30.
|
Carlos Cortes 2B
|
21
|
20
|
1
|
Our
rankings are close on this solid player.
|
Jordan
Humphreys SP
|
22
|
N/R
|
N/R
|
Hardly
pitched the last 2 ½ seasons due to TJS. After my review, he pitched strongly
in Arizona Fall ball, and was added to the 40 man; had I written my review
later, he would definitely have cracked my Top 25. He was my #25, alternate # 3 (in essence,
my # 27).
|
Steve Gonsalves SP
|
23
|
N/R
|
N/R
|
Acquired
after my prospect write ups.
|
Will Toffey 3B
|
24
|
N/R
|
N/R
|
He had a
weak 2019, (.219/.347/.349, 90 Ks in 91 AA games), so I dropped him out of my
top 25. He seems to have good on base
skills.
|
Jake Mangum OF
|
25
|
N/R
|
N/R
|
Liked his
debut a lot, but his lack of power as an OF gave me pause for my top 25 – so far. I am highly confident he will be in my top
20 in Fall 2020.
|
Christian James SP
|
26
|
N/R
|
N/R
|
I was very
unimpressed with his 2019 (3-11, 5.07, 1.57 WHIP for Columbia), and I was much
more impressed with the 2019 of harder throwing Tylor Megill (see below).
|
Pat Mazeika C
|
27
|
N/R
|
N/R
|
I hoped to
see him hit higher than .231 in AA.
|
Desmond Lindsay OF
|
28
|
N/R
|
N/R
|
Always
injured – will 2020 be a turning point?
|
Luis Carpio SS
|
29
|
N/R
|
N/R
|
Decent
player, but will he ever be MLB caliber?
|
Steve Villines RP
|
30
|
N/R
|
N/R
|
Like him a
lot; despite his 1.94 WHIP in 16 AAA innings giving me pause, I would have
had him in my top 30.
|
ON MY LIST, NOT ON MLB LIST:
|
I HAD NINE GUYS ON MY TOP 25, WHO WERE NOT ON MLB’S TOP
30:
|
|||
Steve Nogosek RP
|
N/R
|
9
|
Great
relief work in AAA IN 2019, so I boosted him.
He still needs to tighten his control.
|
|
Tylor Megill SP
|
N/R
|
10
|
Fireballer
pitched well in 3 levels (A, High A, AA) in his first full season, 6-7, 3.52,
92 Ks in 72 IP, far better than Chris James.
|
|
Blake Taylor RP
|
N/R
|
12
|
He really
clicked into his new reliever role with a great AA stint (18 G, 1.85, 45 Ks
in 39 IP, 0.95 WHIP) and in Arizona Fall ball, too.
|
|
Wilmer Reyes SS
|
N/R
|
16
|
Fine
Brooklyn season – I feel he has more upside than Luis Carpio.
|
|
Garrison Bryant SP
|
N/R
|
17
|
Great surge
in Brooklyn over the last several months of 2019. Jaison Vilera had a great Brooklyn 2018, but
followed by struggles at higher levels in 2019, so let’s see if Bryant can
avoid that fall off in 2020.
|
|
Sam Haggerty IF/OF
|
N/R
|
18
|
Like his
skills and speed, but he is getting older – put up or shut up in 2020. Can he be more than Matt den Dekker?
|
|
Matt Blackham RP
|
N/R
|
19
|
Was not added
to the 40 man roster after my ranking, so his abilities may be less than the
sum of his fine minor league career stats.
|
|
Harol Gonzalez SP
|
N/R
|
22
|
Harol had a fine comeback 2019, but if Humphreys and Kilome come back
strong from TJS in 2020, they jump over Harol in my ratings, as Harol is not
a fireballer.
|
|
Andres Regnault C
|
N/R
|
25
|
He has hit well (.292/.328/.489 as a 20 year old in Kingsport) but
can he continue to hit well as a catcher at higher levels in 2020?
|
Parting note:
When many still had Andres Gimenez and not Pete Alonso as their # 1 Mets prospect last winter, I had Pete at # 1, figuring that any guy who could hit 42 HRs and knock in 146 runs in 159 minors/Arizona games in 2018 would surely succeed in 2019. I got that one right, dontcha think?
6 comments:
This took some time.
So much for that Taylor ranking.
Mets trade Taylor and OF prospect for a 227 career batting avg CF.
Pathetic Mets.
Yep, Mack. As my article noted, the unranked Blake Taylor was ranked as my # 12 - I guess Houston thought that ranking was about right, huh?
I expect Marisnick to be a good field, weak hit, occasional back up 5th OF - that's it. If he doesn't end up in Syracuse.
If the Mets spend for quality players elsewhere fine - otherwise, I would have liked to keep Blake Taylor and see what he could do.
Jake Marisnick the new Juan Lagares I guess. But remember this, the first five letters of his last name spell M-A-R-I-S.
Good one.
Okay, let's try this game.
In how many minimal player personnel moves could you all build a Championship NY Mets team for 2020? Good contest I think.
I could build a much better/maybe Championship team in three moves (not counting the bench players upgrades.)
What positions.
1. Left handed starting pitcher. 2. Left handed later inning reliever. 3. Left Fielder, since hopefully JD Davis gets his wish to play third base
Summary
1. With a really good one more left handed starting pitcher. the rotation could be: 1. Jake deGrom 2. New lefty 3. Noah Syndergaard 4. Steven Matz 5. Marcus Stroman Significance here is the new left handed starter has to be really good because otherwise Phillies and Nationals (re-signing Strasburg) would be better and that does not bode well for the Mets.
2. Lefty later inning reliever. Hader may be asking too much, but the Mets could use someone solid to get the job done. Maybe a kid lefty from the Padres here?
3. I would like JD Davis on third base. Therefore, maybe Bobby Dalbec gets converted to left field. Dalbec to me has unlimited potential esp. in the HR department, but he has slightly slower feet. Left may meld well for him to his talents. Mets could use one more HR guy in the lineup.
This was a great post Tom. Maybe this should be re-run as well.
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