Thankfully, this scenario is a hypothetical...right?
But imagine if someone came up to you and said you had to choose between Dominic Smith and Pete Alonso.
You could only keep one. Which would you pick?
To compare fairly, I had to normalize the statistics for the two players.
Pete has had 805 bats the last two years while Dom has had 354. So let’s project Dom up from 354 at bats to 805 at bats and see where that leaves us in our comparison.
Pete has put up the following numbers in his 805 at bats:
.252, 36 doubles, a whopping 69 home runs, and 155 RBIs. Plus 96 walks and a sizable 244 Ks. Mets I've watched over the decades don't do stuff like that.
Dom’s projected numbers to get him to 805 at bats over the last two years brings him to this:
A .300 batting average, a freaky 71 doubles, plus 48 homers, and 152 RBIs, along with 75 walks and 208 Ks. Mets I've watched over the decades don't do stuff like that.
Those are pretty stunning Smith numbers. Similar RBI rate to Pete. Higher extra base hit rate than Pete. Significantly higher average, too.
Dom also is a better glove man at 1B. And can play LF too, if not with great acumen.
Both have real fan support, perhaps with Pete for now still higher in that regard.
If you had to pick one....wow....I would probably NOT pick Pete.
WHY? Monster power hitters that fan a lot like Pete sometimes fade more quickly than a high average hitter like Smith.
Gary Sanchez, for instance, was a power monster in his first two years as a Yankee...53 HRs, 132 RBIs, .285 in 672 ABs...and hit just .200 over the next 3 seasons. Chris Davis? Let’s not go there.
I don’t think that Sanchez thing happens to Pete...but Yankee fans did not think it would happen to Sanchez, either.
Reggie Jackson? Hit 47 blasts at age 23, but over his next 18 seasons, only got as close to within 6 homers of that once. Huge early homer numbers don't mean they will repeat.
If the NL keeps the DH, as it surely should, then by all means keep both. Unless an irresistible prospect package is offered.
If there is, however, no more NL DH, the Mets will have a real logjam at 1B, and it seems a decision to make.
I’d see what each could attract in a trade. My guess is Pete would bring in more. If so, I would have to keep Smith.
But you're the GM. In that scenario, what would you do?
8 comments:
Just as a point of comparison, if you extrapolate Strawberry's best season into 805 at bats, you'd get 48 doubles, 59 HRs, 157 RBIs and .284 with a .398 OBP. These two current guys are right there.
I would go Dom just because he is 2 way player and that to me is more valuable. Hopefully the DH is here to stay and Alonso can have that spot for the next 4 years.
Zozo, I sure hope so. Rarely has a DH been a strategic advantage to a franchise that has, for too many years in its history, been a bottom half offensive squad. But in 2021, it most certainly would be.
My genius move would be to not make a decision this year. But to play along, right now, I think Dom is the better player and it's not close.
But what's real? I don't think we know just yet.
I believe that a poor-fielding 1B can hit 40 HRs and drive in 100 runs and still be a net negative. Make that 50 and 120 and you've got something. Pete looked fat to me; he needs to get it together. But it could be that he's just a "dangerous" #6 hitter who doesn't do enough to help you win games.
My general rule is not to make too much out of the Covid-season numbers. A "virtual" batting coach and no in-game video for hitters to review. Could that have hurt Pete? I think he gave away more ABs than I've seen in a long time, looked utterly clueless. But when guys are going bad, everyone looks awful. In 2019, I was most impressed (and surprised) that Pete looked like a solid hitter. A guy who could hit .260-.270, take his walks.
On Dom Smith, I just wasn't a believer until this year when the pop was clearly there. We need his glove on the field. He seems like a complete hitter to me. I'd still like to see him do it for one more season.
Since defense is my number two issue with this team -- pitching is always number one, but inexorably linked to team defense -- I don't want Pete on the field too often. I also feel the same way about Cano (who I really respect). Davis can't field, either. I don't think it makes sense to think of one guy as our DH.
Pete could go either way, but he's really going to have to rededicate himself this off-season. Didn't love hearing him talk about his bad luck this season. It was far, far worse than that. Nimmo and Conforto were on base all season long and Pete was miserable.
Jimmy
Jimmy, I agree that Pete was sheltered by the tremendous amount that guys were on base in front of him. He could have had 60 RBIs in 60 games if he was not so off. He was truly bad at times. He needs to realize that luck had nothing to do with frequent strikeouts on balls breaking out of the strike zone. If he lays off on those better and hits to all fields, a la 2019, he could have a big 2021. He was worse than his numbers portray in 2020.
If I had to pick one, I'd pick Smith.
Remember it took Dom four years to reach his current level. Pete just completed his second year. Pete is my choice.
Great comments guys and I love that Jimmy used "inexorably" in his post. I have so many thoughts going around in my head with the Cohan announcement just 2 weeks away and the thought that Jeffy won't be in charge of ANYTHING after that (can he be banned from the building?). I'm excited for our team like I haven't been since the last few months of the 2015 season and as far as ownership change since 1980 which was hope getting out of our dire situation then. So all together now lets go Steve and Lets go Mets!!!
Yeah know, honestly, I was excited for the Mets in February. The defense would be miserable but I thought all the pieces were there for a playoff run. Matz looked locked in -- for the first time ever. Then Noah went down, and that was a huge blow; I thought their chances were gone after that. Then COVID. Then I thought, well, with goofy expanded format, maybe they can squeak in and make a run. It would be nice distraction! Then Strohman opted out. And Matz was clearly hurt. Nobody has that much depth.
Anyway, crazy as this sounds, in February I was excited for a season that I thought had real possibilities. Then a lot of things went horribly wrong. And I don't blame Brodie for most of them.
I think Porcello is an interest guy to think about. He's a contact hitter on an atrocious defensive ball club, just the worst combination ever. I think a smart team, a good defensive team, could see him as a bargain as a #5 guy who takes him turns on the bump. But if you can't field behind him, he's the last pitcher you want.
Hopefully Sandy doesn't replicate his abysmal strategy -- I call it the Jay Bruce Effect -- where he worships power at the expense of situational hitting, defense, base-running, everything. This team desperately needs to field the ball.
Jimmy
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