10/19/20

Reese Kaplan -- Positional Analysis for Trades: SS



While there are clear arguments to be made pro and con for the various regular field positions on the Mets roster, the one area in which they are chock full of depth is at shortstop.  For a club that's enjoyed the exploits of the likes of Bud Harrelson, Jose Reyes and up through a few good offensive years from Asdrubal Cabrera, the Mets are accustomed to quality at that position.  Even the past few years Amed Rosario was showing great growth with his bat, enough that his defensive game was livable.  Then Andres Gimenez came from out of nowhere to push the slumping hitter Rosario out of the limelight.  Hot on their heels is prospect Ronny Mauricio as well.  Yes, it's a surplus of riches for the anchor of the infield.

 



Why then are folks suggesting the Mets toss all of them aside to make room for final arbitration year Cleveland Indians star, Francisco Lindor?  After all, the general consensus is that the club is weak in starting pitching, bullpen, centerfield and catcher.  Shortstop isn't even really on the radar as a must-fill need. 

 



Well, think back to last season when the Boston Red Sox were facing a similar situation with four-time All Star, four-time Gold Glove winner and one-time American League MVP Mookie Betts.  He was in the final year of his contract before becoming a VERY expensive free agent and the Red Sox front office felt it was better to unload him a year early for a boatload of talent rather than going through the motions of a QO and settling for a single measly draft pick in compensation when he turned it down.  

 

How'd that work out for the acquiring Dodgers?  Well, in the short 2020 season Betts wound up hitting .292 with 16 HRs, double digit stolen bases and highlight reel defense.  They used their exclusive negotiating window to extend Betts with an eye popping 12-year $365 million deal.  That move sewed up 1/8 of their offensive and defensive attack for pretty much the rest of Betts' major league baseball career.  

 



Now the Mets are in a similar situation with Lindor.  The still 26 year old shortstop has won multiple Gold Gloves, three times already exceeded the 30 HR plateau and holds a career batting average of .285.  He is due for arbitration in 2021 and set to hit free agency in 2022.  Do you see the parallel to Mookie Betts?  The Mets likely won't have to give up a king's ransom to get him since they'd only be guaranteed a single season of Lindor in Queens, but hopefully the new ownership doesn't squander opportunities the way the Wilpons did, and they would use 2021 to negotiate a long term deal with their new shortstop before he hits the open market.

 

If this type of deal should be made, obviously pieces need to go back to Cleveland, likely including one or the existing shortstop options, one of the borderline DH outfielder types like J.D. Davis and some pitching such as Seth Lugo.  That would seem to be a fair price for the All Star Lindor and would set the Mets up with the opportunity for security like the Dodgers did with Betts.  

 

Of course, if this type of deal happened, then the Mets need to figure out what to do with their excess of shortstops left behind.  It's perfectly acceptable to keep Luis Guillorme as the backup and then whomever remains behind -- Amed Rosario or Andres Gimenez -- could be peddled away to address other needs.  Yes, they still have the 2nd base question and 3rd base questions to answer, but any time you have the opportunity to secure someone regarded as the best at his position in the game, you have to look seriously at the opportunity.  (A similar pitch could be made to the Rockies for Trevor Story  who is in the same contractual situation, but in a league where the DH is not yet a regular option it may not be as easy to make this kind of trade).  

2 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, I do think that this is a seminal moment, with Cohen coming in. The Wilpons would NEVER have gone after Lindor, given the team's other large needs and a surplus at SS.

But the Dodgers are in the World Series in part due to elite stars. The Lakers won the title with elite stars.

I'd like the Mets to go after the elite. Get Lindor. Don't stop there. Transform this team into a sure-fire 100 win team. This off season.

Zozo said...

I’m all for securing a 2 way player that’s one of the best has his position for the next 10 years.

My trade offer is Rosario, Nimmo, JD and Baty for Lindor and carlos carrasco. I may have to sweeten the pot with Josh Wolf but we get one of the best SS and a number starting pitcher.

Put Giminez and McNiel at 2nd and 3rd base.put Dom in LF until we can trade Cano. When we eventually trade Cano put Alonso in DH position permanently.