2021 Mets Draft Targets - Maddux Bruns, Jonathan Cannon, Henry Davis, Gunnar Hogland, Carson Seymour

                      Maddux Bruns  

 

    LHP 6-2 210 Ulms-Wright HS (AL)   -    Projected: 7th-10th round

 

 Talking Chop -  Maddux Bruns, LHP, Ulms-Wright HS Alabama

Maddux Bruns is a somewhat debated prospect, particularly after being ranked the #2 overall prep prospect in this class by Baseball America. While everyone is in agreement that Bruns is a top prospect, there is definitely some debate on where he should be ranked. For me that comes in the second tier of arms, as the lefty isn’t the biggest or most projectable at 6’2, 210, and he will already be 19 years old on draft day- making him on the older side for the prep class in a day where being younger is definitely more valued by teams. Still Bruns is a lefty who sits in the mid 90s and has touched as high as 97 MPH, has a potentially plus slider and the makings of an at least above average curve. Bruns has premium stuff for a lefty, but he has a fairly limited run with this velocity after really seeing it pick up considerably this summer. Bruns, who is committed to Mississippi State, is the first guy on this list who still needs to keep proving himself to establish a track record, but he is on the way up.

 

PG -

Maddux Bruns is a 2021 LHP with a 6-2 210 lb. frame from Saraland, AL who attends Ums-Wright Prep. Strong athletic build, has filled out nicely over the last year, pretty mature physically. Compact arm action in back with a tight 3/4's arm slot, fast arm coming through, stays balanced and above the rubber well from a high leg lift delivery, can get more drive out of his lower half, short stride out front. Raw stuff has jumped since last seen in October, fastball topped out at 97 mph and was consistently in the mid-90's, works his fastball to both sides of the plate with heavy life down in the zone, flashes bat breaking late life. Has tight spin on a slow curveball, will slow his arm at times on the pitch, also cuts his fastball effectively and has definite slider potential. Showed feel for his change up. Extremely impressive jump since last seen, flashes all the pitches and the ability to throw strikes.

 

Mack observation -

 

The 2021 draft is weak in left hand starters and, though Bruns is one of the top rated, he doesn’t make my top 200 list.

I rate him in the 7-10 round area,

 

                    Jonathan Cannon

        RHP 6-6 207 Georgia   -   Projected: 5th round

MLB -   

 

10. Jonathan Cannon, RHP, Georgia

 

Cannon is the next strong-armed pitcher from a Georgia program that saw Emerson Hancock (Mariners) and Cole Wilcox (Padres) sign for a combined $9 million this summer. He didn't allow a run in 11 2/3 relief innings last spring, sitting in the mid-90s and showing signs of a plus slider and changeup, and there's plenty of projection remaining in his 6-foot-6, 207-pound frame. 

 

2020 stat line - 5-appearances, 3-0, 0.00, .054, 11.1-IP, 12-K 

 

Mack observation -

 

Cannon is one of the top relievers in this draft. The question is when a team starts drafting these guys.

 

I always think a team should wait until the first five rounds are completed.

 

If this guy is still on the board in round six, he’s mine. 

 

                            Henry Davis 

C          Louisville    -   Projected 1st-2nd round

 

MLB -   

 

12. Henry Davis, C, Louisville

 

Davis had a breakout if brief sophomore season, hitting .372/.481/.698 with twice as many walks as strikeouts in 14 games last spring, while continuing to show off a plus arm behind the plate. He has displayed more offensive upside at Louisville than former first-rounder Will Smith did, but he's not nearly as advanced a receiver and will need to clean up his defense. 

 

Diamond Digest -  

 

25) Henry Davis, C, Louisville

 

Davis has always been viewed as more of a defensive-oriented catcher before really exploding offensively to start 2020, slashing .372/.481/.698 in 52 plate appearances. At the plate, he has a wide base and a quiet setup that reminds me of Pete Alonso. He has some Heston Kjerstad/Dexter Fowler in his load with a big bat twirl to get his hands into slot. His swing is a little rigid and I have some questions about his ability to spin on balls on the inner half, but he generates plus bat speed and has a natural uphill swing plane. He doesn’t strike out often, either, and those bat-to-ball skills combined with his power potential is an intriguing combination. Defensively, he shows advanced ability as a receiver and a leader behind the plate. He guides a pitcher through a game very nicely and instills confidence in the guy on the mound. He has good hands and while robo-umps may cause pitch framing to become obsolete before Davis even reaches the Major Leagues, he does a good job of stealing strikes on the edges. Davis has good lateral athleticism when it comes to ball blocking, and his technique is very sound. Where Davis really excels defensively is in the run game. He has a 70-grade arm behind the plate and he does a really good job of throwing runners out. Davis is a force in the run game and is one of the best catch-and-throw guys in the country. Davis is still viewed more as a defense-first catcher, but if he shows some of the same things offensively in 2021 as he did in 2020, he can really cement himself as the top college catcher in the draft. 

 

Mack observation -

 

“A ++ defender behind the plate that hits like Pete”.

 

Wow. I have a new favorite first round pick! 

 

 

                    Gunnar Hogland

 

                                      RHP 6-5 210 Ole Miss   -   Projected 1st round 

 

Diamond Digest -  

 

12) Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss

 

After being selected by the Pirates in the sandwich round in 2018, Hoglund chose not to sign and will be draft-eligible again in 2021 with a strong case to be a first round pick this time around. He has been deemed as one of the more projectable right handed pitchers for a while now, and his tall 6’5 frame is starting to fill out. He has added strength in Oxford, and after a topsy-turvy freshman year he added velocity and showed improved stuff in 2020. His fastball now sits in the 91-94 range, and it is a classic 4-seamer that he commands well to both sides of the plate. Hoglund’s heater is one that the analytically-inclined organizations will love. It has good spin data and the pitch’s rising action misses a lot of bats, especially up in the zone. He throws two distinct breaking balls right now, with the better offering being an above-average slider with traditional 10-4/11-5ish shape. The slider has sharp break that misses bats and he has shown a feel for landing it for strikes and putting below the zone to get hitters to chase. Hoglund’s curveball is a vertically-oriented pitch that he throws for strikes, but it is not as sharp as his slider. The curve is more for show, as he uses it to steal strikes and keep hitters off-balanced. Mechanically, Hoglund is sound with a clean motion and has elements of his motion that show the ability to generate velocity. He gets solid hip/torso separation that creates a whippy arm. Right now his scapular range of motion isn’t ideal, but in a professional strength program that may be improved. If it does, we could see him add even a touch more velocoity. His arm timing is good and doesn’t show any traditional red flags in his delivery. Hoglund is athletic and shows some of that athleticism on the mound, but he could show a deeper hip hinge. Thus far, Hoglund has developed nicely in college. If he shows the same improved stuff in 2021, he will be one of the first college arms off the board in June. 

 

2021 stat line - 4-starts, 3-0, 1.16, 23.1-IP, 37-K 

 

Mack observation -

 

Boy, is there right hand pitching talent in this draft.

 

Hoglund will be gone when the Mets pick in the second round. My favorite right now for my first pick is catcher Henry Davis.

 

Sadly, I will lose out on this guy.

 

 

                    Carson Seymour

 

        RHP 6-6 260 Kansas State    -   Projected 3rd round pick

 

Medium -

 

9. Carson Seymour — Kansas State

 

Carson Seymour had the worst season of Kansas State’s 3-weekend starters (but my 2nd prospect from K-State), which isn’t saying too much considering he produced a 2.60 FIP, which is a much better mark than his 3.92 ERA. What that 1.32 split between the 2 indicates, in addition to his below-average BABIP of 0.311, is that he suffered a little bit from the poorer defense behind him than Wicks and McCullough did.

 

Some of that bad batted ball luck would definitely be part of the culprit for his wOBA allowed of 0.274, but so too would his BB/9 rate of 5.23, double the conference average. We see that Seymour limits hits well, only allowing 6.10 per 9 IP, and average 10.89 K/9, so where does that high BB/9 come from?

 

Well, @ksu_analytics, Kansas State Baseball’s analytics twitter account, posted a few TrackMan graphics from one of Seymour’s outings, highlighting his fastball and slider. His fastball was 95–96 MPH, reaching 2528 rpm at one point. His slider is of the power variety, coming in at 86.4 MPH, with a spin rate of 2568 rpm, both above the MLB average. As with Wicks, reading too much into these few pitches is a bad idea because it’s a very limited sample size of Seymour’s pitches, but it shows us that potential.

 

It also shows us that he gets good movement on his pitches, with a lot of power. That’s a strikeout recipe, but it can also result in lower control because he doesn’t need to rely on as much finesse. Fortunately, Seymour succeeded in spite of his BB/9 in 2020 and, as a sophomore, has room to improve that command heading into next season. 

 

Mack observation -

 

I like Seymour as a potential third round pick, but there is so much talent to pick from on this draft.

 

For that reason, I will let another team pick him.