Reese Kaplan -- Positional Analysis for Trades: SP

As we continue our way around the Mets roster and the ongoing need to improve, we finally hit upon the Achilles heel of the team for the truncated 2020 season -- pitching.  This examination will be split into two parts, starting and relieving.  

The Mets were flat out awful on both ends and need vast improvements on the mound regardless of the inning if they're going to succeed.  Many of us are old enough to remember the great Big Red Machine baseball teams for many years in Cincinnati who could score runs at will but once they got past Don Gullett they were pretty much living on hopes and prayers that whomever toed the rubber wasn't going to give away the game to the opposition.

 

In many ways, the Mets are in a similar state right now in which they happily trot out Jacob deGrom every fifth game and know for certain they're going to get a great effort from the 2018 and 2019 Cy Young Award winner.  This year he'll probably fall behind one-year-wonder Trevor Bauer, but that takes nothing away from his stellar performance which this year included a league leading 104 strikeouts.  

The problem is that he's expensive.  The Mets gave him a big deal (by their standards) for $103.5 million over the next three seasons, plus a one-year team option for another $32.5 million which could bring the remaining payroll obligation to $135 million.  Obviously he is the anchor of the staff and immensely popular with the front office and the fans.  The media loves him and by everyone's perception he will start and end his career with the New York Mets.

 

I'm about to put on military grade protective gear, but in all of the scenarios in which you try to peddle away your spare parts for All Stars, none of it seems all that realistic.  Some combination of Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis is not likely going to return a number two caliber starting pitcher.  You have to give to get.

 

Now instead, what would you get back from other teams if you said Mr. deGrom was available for the right price?  For people who lived through the departures of Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver and others, the very concept of trading away your best pitcher is pure heresy.  However, consider the issues surrounding this hypothetical.

 

First is age and durability.  deGrom started his pitching career a little late having come up as an infielder and then missing time due to surgery.  He's been relatively healthy since taking the mound full time, but he begins the 2021 season at age 33.  He likely has two very good years left but after that you have to factor in the deterioration caused by age and arm strain.  

 

Next, let's look at the many vacancies the team needs to fill.  They are short on starting pitching, relief pitching, center field, catcher and soon 2nd base as well as 3rd.  That's a lot of holes that need filling and parlaying spare parts and minor leaguers may not be as attractive to other teams as Mets fans and front office officials believe.

 

So if you were even slightly open to the prospect of trading Jacob deGrom to help address your team's needs and give you the payroll to address many other problems, what would it take?  We are all well aware of what top notch pitchers like Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Mashiro Tanaka earn, just as we are aware of how much time they miss due to injury.  It's not the only way to address Mets' needs, but it's one that should at least be considered.  

 

Right now as the season begins your rotation includes Jacob deGrom, David Peterson and...what exactly?  Seth Lugo once again demonstrated that starting pitching is not his future.  Marcus Stroman is a free agent.  Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello were one year failed experiments.  We've see quite enough of Corey Oswalt and others of his ilk to depend on them to win.  So why would I consider removing one of the two firm starters to make the team better?

 

Well, what is the price you could ask for deGrom?  Take a team that's enamored of over-30 players and willing to pay them whatever it takes like the New York Yankees.  Don't you think you could ask for 2-3 VERY solid ballplayers in return or their entire farm of top prospects?  What about the Dodgers?  What about the Astros?  What about many other teams who would kill to get a pitcher of deGrom's caliber?  

 

Frankly, the Mets have a volume problem.  They need multiple starting pitchers and signing Trevor Bauer alone isn't going to turn the team into a long term contender.  I'd almost rather see five Taijuan Walkers take the mound to pitch credibly and emulate that old Big Red Machine model by fielding a solid enough lineup that competent if not All Star worthy pitching is available every day.  The route to achieving that takes someone who can fill a lot more than one hole.  That route might be named Jacob deGrom.